Posted at 15 November 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Oct Core PPI Output (YoY) 0.2%, 0.7% previous
•UK Oct Core PPI Output (MoM) 0.1%, 0.0% previous
•UK Oct PPI Output (MoM) 0.1%, 0.1% forecast,0.4% previous
•UK Oct PPI Output (YoY) -0.6% ,-1.0% forecast, -0.1% previous
•UK Oct PPI Input (MoM) 0.4%, 0.2% forecast, 0.4% previous
•UK Oct RPI (YoY) 6.1%, 6.4% forecast, 8.9% previous
•UK Oct CPI (YoY) 4.6% ,4.8% forecast, 6.7% previous
•UK Oct CPI (MoM) 0.0%, 0.1% forecast,0.5% previous
•France Oct CPI (MoM) 0.10%, -0.50% previous
•France Oct French CPI (MoM) 0.1%,0.1% forecast,-0.5% previous
•France Oct CPI (YoY) 4.00%, 4.90% previous
•France Oct Inflation (YoY) 3.90%,4.80% previous
• French Oct HICP (YoY) 4.5%,4.5% forecast,5.7% previous
• French Oct French HICP (MoM) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast,-0.6% previous
• Italian Oct CPI (MoM) -0.2%, -0.1% forecast,0.2% previous
•EU Sep Trade Balance 10.0B,6.7B previous
•EU Sep Industrial Production (YoY) -6.9%,-6.3% forecast,-5.1% previous
•EU Sep Industrial Production (MoM) -1.1%,-1.0% forecast,0.6% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 Canada SepWholesale Sales (MoM) 0.0% forecast,2.3% previous
•13:30 US Oct Retail Control (MoM) 0.6% previous
•13:30 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) -0.2% forecast, 0.6% previous
•13:30 US Oct Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) 0.0% forecast, 0.6% previous
•13:30 US Oct Retail Sales (MoM) -0.3% forecast,0.7% previous
•13:30 US Oct Core PPI (YoY) 2.7% forecast,2.7% previous
•13:30 US Oct PPI (YoY) 1.9% forecast,2.2% previous
•13:30 US Oct PPI (MoM) 0.1% forecast,0.5% previous
•13:30 US Oct Core PPI (MoM) 0.3% forecast,0.3% previous
•13:30 US Oct PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (MoM) 0.2% previous
•13:30 US Nov NY Empire State Manufacturing Index -2.80 forecast,-4.60 previous
•13:30 US Oct Retail Sales (YoY) 3.75% previous
•13:30 US Oct PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (YoY) 2.8% previous
•13:30 Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) -0.1% forecast,0.7% previous
•13:30 Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM)158.5K previous
•15:00 US Retail Sep Inventories Ex Auto 0.3% forecast, 0.5% previous
•15:00 US Sep Business Inventories (MoM) 0.4% forecast, 0.4% previous
•15:00 US Heating Oil Stockpiles 0.304M previous
•15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories 1.793M forecast,0.774M previous
•15:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 0.272M previous
•16:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) 2.1% forecast,2.1% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•14:30 US Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks
•18:00 UK MPC Member Haskel Speaks
•20:30 US FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased slightly on Wednesday as expectations of an end to a global rate hike cycle spurred on investors following benign inflation readings in the United States and across Europe. On Tuesday, data showed U.S. headline consumer prices were flat in October, against expectations for a 0.1% rise. Core CPI, at 0.2%, also came in below a forecast of 0.3%.Interest rate futures swung to price in an interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve as early as May, with a 30% chance it could come even sooner, in March. Investors focus now shifted to U.S. retail sales, due at 1330 GMT. The euro eased 0.3% to $1.0848 after touching its highest since August the previous day. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0894(Nov 14th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0932( (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0833 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0761(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling eased on Wednesday after data showed British inflation cooled more than forecast in October, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of England will be cutting interest rates by the middle of next year.British consumer prices rose by 4.6% in the 12 months to October, from September’s 6.7% increase, according to the Office for National Statistics The pound staged its largest one-day rise against the dollar in a year on Tuesday, after U.S. data showed the smallest annual increase in underlying consumer inflation in two years. Sterling was last down 0.2% on the day at $1.247 by 0703 GMT, compared with $1.2487 shortly before the data. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2502(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2555 (Sep 11th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2422(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2329(61.8%fib).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar declined against Swiss franc on Tuesday as cooler U.S. inflation data added to investor conviction that the Federal Reserve may not raise rates again. Data showed U.S. consumer prices were unchanged in October as Americans paid less for gasoline, and the annual rise in underlying inflation was the smallest in two years.On a year-on-year basis, the consumer price index (CPI) increased 3.2% after rising 3.7% in September. Economists polled had forecast the CPI gaining 0.1% on the month and increasing 3.3% on a year-on-year. The dollar index , which measures the currency against a basket of peers, stood at 104.17, not far from Tuesday's two-month low of 103.98. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8091(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8941(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8867(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8833(Sep 4thh low)
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against the Japanese yen on Wednesday after data showed Japan's economy contracted in July-September. Gross domestic product (GDP) in the world's third-largest economy contracted 2.1% in the third quarter, government data showed on Wednesday, a much larger decline that a median market forecast for an annualised 0.6% fall. It followed an expansion of 4.5% in the previous quarter.The data suggests stubbornly high inflation is taking a toll on household spending, and adding to the pain for manufacturers from slowing global demand including in China. The dollar/yen pair rose 0.03% to 150.45.On Monday, the yen hit a one-year low close to 152.Strong resistance can be seen at 150.92(23.6%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.87(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 150.36 (21DMA)a break below could take the pair towards 150.00 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
Europe's benchmark STOXX 600 climbed to a more than one-month high on Wednesday, as investors cheered slowing inflation across major economies, bolstering bets of an end to central banks' policy tightening.
(At GMT 12:52)UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 1.05 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.70 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.57 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose to a more than one-week high on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields weakened after cooler inflation data boosted bets that a U.S rate cut might come sooner than earlier priced in by investors.
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $1,970.45 per ounce at 1224 GMT, after earlier touching its highest since Nov. 7. U.S. gold futures also gained 0.4% to $1,974.70.
Oil prices dipped on Wednesday amid signs the United States, the world's biggest oil producer, is at peak production, offsetting positive crude demand signals from top consumer China.
Brent futures were down 29 cents to $82.18 a barrel at 1207 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down 32 cents to $77.94.