Posted at 15 November 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US Oct Core CPI (YoY) 4.0%,4.1% forecast,4.1% previous
•US CPI (MoM) 0.0%, 0.1% forecast,0.4% previous
•US Oct CPI (YoY) 3.2%, 3.3% forecast,3.7% previous
•US Oct Core CPI (MoM) 0.2%, 0.3% forecast,0.3% previous
•US Oct CPI Index, n.s.a. 307.67, 307.86forecast,307.79 previous
•US Oct Core CPI Index 311.37, 311.67 forecast,310.66 previous
•US Oct CPI, n.s.a (MoM) -0.04%, 0.25% previous
•US Oct CPI Index, s.a 307.62, 307.48 previous
•US Oct Real Earnings (MoM) -0.1%, -0.2% previous
•US Redbook (YoY) 3.0%,3.1% previous
•US Oct Cleveland CPI (MoM) 0.3%,0.5% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•00: 30 Australia Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q3) 1.3% forecast, 0.8% previous
•00: 30 Australia Wage Price Index (YoY) (Q3) 3.9% forecast, 3.6% previous
•02:00 Chinese Oct Unemployment Rate 5.0% forecast, 5.0% previous
•02:00 Chinese Chinese Industrial Production YTD (YoY) 4.0% previous
•02:00 Chinese Oct Chinese Retail Sales YTD (YoY) 6.81% previous
•02:00 Chinese Oct Industrial Production (YoY) 4.3% forecast,4.5% previous
•02:00 Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) 7.0% forecast,5.5% previous
•02:00 Chinese Oct Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 3.1% forecast, 3.1% previous
•04:30 Japan Sep Capacity Utilization (MoM) 0.5% previous
•04:30 Japan Sep Industrial Production (MoM) 0.2% forecast,-0.7% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro rose sharply on Tuesday as dollar dipped after softer-than-expected inflation data supported the view that the Federal Reserve may be done raising interest rates. Data showed U.S. consumer prices were unchanged in October as Americans paid less for gasoline, and the annual rise in underlying inflation was the smallest in two years. In the 12 months through October, the CPI climbed 3.2% - below economists' estimates - after rising 3.7% in September. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0881(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0918 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0825 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0769(5DMA).
GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened against dollar on Tuesday after U.S. consumer price data showed the pace of inflation moderating further in October, increasing the odds that the Federal Reserve is done hiking interest rates.U.S. consumer prices were unchanged last month amid lower gasoline prices, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said, following a 0.4% rise in September.In the 12 months through October, the consumer price index (CPI) climbed 3.2% after rising 3.7% in September, BLS said. The data was welcome news in the market, where many analysts have been predicting the Fed's interest rate hiking has peaked. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2505(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2557 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2452 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2363(50%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened to a one-week high against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday as data showed a slowdown in the pace of U.S. inflation, triggering a sharp drop in long-term borrowing costs and bolstering investor sentiment. U.S. inflation rose in October by the smallest annual amount in two years. The data boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve was done raising interest rates and could start cutting them in 2024. The price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, was unable to sustain its earlier gains, settling unchanged at $78.26 a barrel.The loonie was trading 0.7% higher at 1.3701 to the greenback, or 72.99 U.S. cents, its strongest level since Nov. 7.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3711 (38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3758 (5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3644(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3577 (50% fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar eased against the Japanese yen on Tuesday after softer-than-expected U.S. consumer inflation data fuelled bets that the Federal Reserve may be done hiking interest rates. The Japanese yen gained against the dollar, but less than its peers. The yen strengthened 0.97% to 150.23 per dollar when earlier coming under pressure after it briefly jumped against the dollar on Monday having touched a one-year low. The move was attributed to a flurry of trading in options rather than any intervention from Japanese authorities .Strong resistance can be seen at 151.06(5DMA),an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.63(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 150.42 (38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 149.10 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks soared on Tuesday after U.S. inflation data came in cooler than forecast in October, fuelling investor bets that an era of interest rate rises is over and borrowing costs may even soon start to fall..
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.20 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 1.76 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 1. 38 percent.
The Nasdaq closed lower on Friday with pressure from Apple Inc in a subdued holiday-shortened trading session for Wall Street, as investors watched Black Friday sales and COVID-19 cases in China.
Dow Jones closed up by 1.43 percent, S&P 500 ended up by 1.91 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 2.37 percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields dropped on Tuesday after softer-than-expected consumer inflation data in October, suggesting the Federal Reserve may be done raising interest rates, with the market bracing for rate cuts by the first half of next year.
U.S. two-year yields, which reflect interest rate expectations, slid to two-week lows of 4.855% and were last down 17.8 basis points (bps) at 4.865%. The benchmark 10-year yield fell 15.20 bps to 4.480%.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices gained on Tuesday as the dollar and Treasury yields retreated after softer-than-expected U.S. consumer inflation data, which fuelled more bets that the Federal Reserve may be done hiking interest rates.
Spot gold was up 0.6% at $1,957.70 per ounce, as of 9:14 a.m. ET (1414 GMT). U.S. gold futures rose 0.7% to $1,963.00.
Oil prices were little changed on Tuesday, paring early gains on signs tensions in the Middle East could be easing and uncertainty about U.S. oil inventories.
Brent futures fell 5 cents to $82.47 a barrel, Brent futures traded as high as $93.79 per barrel on Oct. 20.U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude held steady at $78.26.