Posted at 14 November 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Sep Average Earnings ex Bonus 7.7%,7.7% forecast,7.8% previous
•UK Sep Average Earnings Index +Bonus 7.9%,7.4% forecast,8.1% previous
•UK Oct Claimant Count Change 17.8K,15.0K forecast,20.4K previous
•UK Sep Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM)54K,-198K forecast,-82K previous
•UK Sep Unemployment Rate 4.2%,4.3% forecast,4.2% previous
•Swiss Oct PPI (MoM) 0.2%,0.1% forecast,-0.1% previous
•Spanish Oct CPI (YoY) 3.5%,3.5% forecast,3.5% previous
•Spanish Oct Spanish HICP (YoY) 3.5%,3.5% forecast,3.3% previous
•German Nov ZEW Economic Sentiment 13.8,6.1 forecast,2.3 previous
•EU Employment Overall (Q3) 166,966.2K, 166,499.3K previous
•EU GDP (YoY) (Q3)0.1%,0.1% forecast,0.5% previous
•German Nov ZEW Current Conditions -79.8,-76.9 forecast,-79.9 previous
• German ZEW Economic Sentiment 9.8,5.0 forecast,-1.1 previous
• EU Employment Change (QoQ) 0.3%, 0.1% forecast,0.2% previous
• EU Employment Change (YoY) 1.4%, 1.2% forecast, 1.3% previous
• EU GDP (QoQ) (Q3) -0.1%, -0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 US Oct Core CPI (YoY) 4.1% forecast,4.1% previous
•13:30 US CPI (MoM) 0.1% forecast,0.4% previous
•13:30 US Oct CPI (YoY) 3.3% forecast,3.7% previous
•13:30 US Oct Core CPI (MoM) 0.3% forecast,0.3% previous
•13:30 US Oct CPI Index, n.s.a. 307.86 forecast,307.79 previous
•13:30 US Oct Core CPI Index 311.67 forecast,310.66 previous
•13:30 US Oct CPI, n.s.a (MoM) 0.25% previous
•13:30 US Oct CPI Index, s.a 307.48 previous
•13:30 US Oct Real Earnings (MoM) -0.2% previous
•13:55 US Redbook (YoY) 3.1% previous
•16:00 US Oct Cleveland CPI (MoM) 0.5% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•13:45 UK BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks
•15:00 US Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks
•17:45 US Fed Goolsbee Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased against dollar on Tuesday as markets awaited U.S. inflation data later in the session, which could provide an indication of whether global interest rates start to fall. Market participants across the globe awaited U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data due at 13:30 GMT on Tuesday and producer price index data due on Wednesday. Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, last week said they were still not sure rates were high enough to finish the battle with inflation.The market is pricing in an 86% chance that the Fed will leave rates unchanged in December, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0729(Nov 9th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0746(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0689 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0671(11DMA).
GBP/USD: Sterling traded in tight range on Tuesday as investors awaited U.S. inflation data that could be key in dictating the near-term direction of the dollar against other currencies. British data earlier in the day showed UK workers’ wages grew slightly less quickly in the three months to September, but remained close to their record pace.The figures will likely do little to ease the Bank of England’s concerns about inflationary pressures and did nothing to change market-based forecasts for a UK rate cut in June 2024 at the earliest. Unlike UK wage data, Tuesday’s U.S. inflation report could do more to dictate the near-term outlook for sterling, given that it will shape those expectations and either give the dollar another boost, or knock it back. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2315(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2345 (Nov 7th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2256 (11DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2245(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar firmed against Swiss franc on Tuesday as investors were cautious ahead of a crucial U.S. inflation report that could heavily influence the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. The U.S. inflation report, due later in the day, has investors’ attention on Tuesday, especially after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and policymakers have said they are still not sure that interest rates are high enough to tame inflation. Economists polled by Reuters expect headline U.S. consumer price inflation slowed to 3.3% in October from 3.7% in September, with the so-called core inflation rate that strips out volatile components unchanged. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9025(11DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9040(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8994 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8954 (Nov 6th low)
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen on Tuesday as traders waited for important U.S. inflation data which could either provide some relief for the beleaguered currency or push the dollar to its highest against the yen since 1990. Japanese authorities in September last year intervened in the currency market to boost the yen for the first time since 1998, after a BOJ decision to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy drove the yen as low as 145 per dollar.It intervened again in October 2022 after the yen plunged to a 32-year low of 151.94.The dollar stood at 151.68 yen , near a one-year high of 151.92 hit on Monday. A break past last year's 151.94 would mark a fresh 33-year high for dollar/yen .Strong resistance can be seen at 151.95(23.6%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 153.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen 151.36 (50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 150.90 (11DMA).
Equities Recap
European stocks gained on Tuesday, led by basic resources as Glencore touched a near two-week high, while investors geared up for a key U.S. inflation report for more clarity on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook.
(At GMT 12:25 )UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.34 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.49 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.28 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were flat on Tuesday as traders maintained caution ahead of the U.S. inflation print due later in the day for further cues on the interest rate path in the world’s largest economy.
Spot gold was little changed at $1,947.39 per ounce, as of 1021 GMT, trading in a narrow range of $6, after hitting its lowest in more than three weeks on Monday. U.S. gold futures rose 0.1% to $1,951.30.
Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday after the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its demand growth forecasts, adding to bullish sentiment from the previous day's OPEC guidance.
Brent crude futures gained 20 cents, or 0.2%, to $82.72 a barrel by 0918 GMT. U.S. WTI crude futures climbed 21 cents, or 0.3%, to $78.47.