Posted at 14 November 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•EU French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.796% ,3.758% previous
•EU French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.796%, 3.796% previous
•French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.674%, 3.682% previous
•US Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.60%,3.70% previous
•US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.285%,5.285% previous
•US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.270%,5.260% previous
•US Federal Budget Balance -67.0B,-30.0B forecast,-171.0B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•00:30 Australia Oct NAB Business Confidence 1 previous
•00:30 Australia Oct NAB Business Survey 11 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against dollar on Monday but gains were limited as focus turned to U.S. inflation data for more clues on whether interest rates have peaked. Core U.S. CPI month-over-month is expected to have risen 0.3% in October, with a year-over-year increase of 4.1%, a poll showed. Both estimated gains are the same as in September. The market is pricing in a 85% chance that the U.S. central bank will leave rates unchanged at the December meeting and a 75% chance that it will introduce a cut by July next year, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The euro strengthened 0.02% at $1.0701 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0710(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0721(Nov 9th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0659 (11DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0642(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged higher on Monday after British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak reshuffled his cabinet, appointing former PM David Cameron as foreign minister and firing interior minister Suella Braverman.The reaction in the financial markets was modest and analysts said the direction for sterling in the near-term would be driven by economic data and the outlook for the U.S. dollar, rather than British politics. On the data front investors awaited consumer price index (CPI) for October on Wednesday, which economists polled by Reuters expect to have risen by 4.8% year on year, after September's 6.7% increase. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2251(11DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2281(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2169 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2133(Nov 1st low).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar fell against its broadly stronger U.S. counterpart on Monday ahead of a highly anticipated U.S. inflation reading. Economists expect the headline consumer price index (CPI) - due to be reported on Tuesday - to have slowed to a 0.1% rise in October, from a 0.4 increase in September, according to poll. The core inflation number is expected at 0.3% last month, unchanged from September. The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency against six others, was flat at 105.65, within distance of its year-to-date high reached Oct. 3. The loonie was trading 0.2% lower at C$1.382 to the greenback, after trading in a range of 1.3788 to 1.3831.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3838 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3854 (Nov 10th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3780(11DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3762(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar climbed to its highest level in over a year against the Japanese yen on Monday, continuing to draw support from a scaling back of expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts next year. Fed policymakers, including Chair Jerome Powell, last week suggested the battle against inflation may not be over yet, prompting a scaling back of market rate cut bets that pushed up short-dated Treasury yields and supported the greenback. The dollar on Monday rose to 151.88 yen , its highest level since October 2022. It was last up 0.15%, having last week rallied around 1.4% in the biggest weekly jump against the yen in three months.Strong resistance can be seen at 151.86(Daily high),an upside break can trigger rise towards 152.29(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 151.21 (38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 150.66 (11DMA).
Equities Recap
European shares rose in a broad-based rally on Monday, with investors awaiting data this week for clarity on the economic outlook as major central banks advocate tight monetary policy.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.89 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.73 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0. 60 percent.
The S&P 500 closed Monday's session slightly lower as investors held their breath before a crucial inflation reading that could provide clues as to how long the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.16 percent, S&P 500 ended down by 0.08 percent, Nasdaq finished the day down by 0.22 percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields were mixed on Monday in rangebound trading, with those on the short end modestly lower, as investors anxiously awaited inflation and retail sales data due this week that could shape expectations on whether or not another rate hike is warranted.
The yield, which moves in the opposite direction of prices, of 10-year Treasury notes was little changed at 4.634%.U.S. two-year yields, which reflect interest rate expectations, fell 3.1 basis points to 5.03% .
Commodities Recap
Gold prices ticked higher as the dollar eased on Monday, while investors looked toward key U.S. inflation data due this week that could throw some light on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate stance.
Spot gold was up 0.4% at $1,945.25 per ounce by 3:30 p.m. ET (2030 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled 0.6% higher at $1,950.20.
Oil prices rose by more than 1% on Monday after OPEC's monthly market report eased worries about waning demand and a U.S. probe into suspected violations of Russian oil sanctions raised concerns about potential supply disruptions.
Brent crude futures rose by $1.09, or 1.3%, to settle at $82.52 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures also gained $1.09, or 1.4%, to settle at $78.26 a barrel.