Posted at 13 November 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German Sep Current Account Balance n.s.a 28.1B,16.6B previous
•UK Nov Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) -1.3%, -0.8% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:55 EU French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.758% previous
•13:55 EU French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.796% previous
•13:55French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.682% previous
•15:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 40.2 forecast, 36.3 previous
•16:00 US Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.70% previous
•16:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.285% previous
•16:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.260% previous
•19:00 US Federal Budget Balance -30.0B forecast,-171.0B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•16:05 UK BoE MPC Member Mann
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased against dollar on Monday as focus turned to U.S. inflation data for more clues on whether interest rates have peaked. Core U.S. CPI month-over-month is expected to have risen 0.3% in October, with a year-over-year increase of 4.1%, a poll showed. Both estimated gains are the same as in September. The market is pricing in a 85% chance that the U.S. central bank will leave rates unchanged at the December meeting and a 75% chance that it will introduce a cut by July next year, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The euro was a touch weaker at $1.0670 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0699(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0721(Nov 9th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0659 (11DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0642(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged higher on Monday after British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak reshuffled his cabinet, appointing former PM David Cameron as foreign minister and firing interior minister Suella Braverman.The reaction in the financial markets was modest and analysts said the direction for sterling in the near-term would be driven by economic data and the outlook for the U.S. dollar, rather than British politics. On the data front investors awaited consumer price index (CPI) for October on Wednesday, which economists polled by Reuters expect to have risen by 4.8% year on year, after September's 6.7% increase. Sterling was last trading at $1.2248 , 0.2% higher on the day. Against the euro, the pound stood at 87.28 pence also up 0.2%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2251(11DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2281(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2169 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2133(Nov 1st low).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar firmed against Swiss franc on Monday as traders awaited another batch of U.S. inflation data that is expected to offer further clues this week on whether the Federal Reserve has more work to do to tame price pressures. The focus for most traders will be firmly on U.S. consumer price index (CPI) numbers due on Tuesday after the Fed’s policy meeting this month tempered its hawkish stance although Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week hinted that the battle against inflation may not be over yet. Retail sales the following day will also provide more information on the state of demand in the U.S. economy, which has shown signs of resilience in the face of high borrowing cost. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9059(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9133(Nov 1st high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9044 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8984 (50%fib)
USD/JPY: The dollar climbed to its highest level in over a year against the Japanese yen on Monday, continuing to draw support from a scaling back of expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts next year. Fed policymakers, including Chair Jerome Powell, last week suggested the battle against inflation may not be over yet, prompting a scaling back of market rate cut bets that pushed up short-dated Treasury yields and supported the greenback. The dollar on Monday rose to 151.88 yen , its highest level since October 2022. It was last up 0.15%, having last week rallied around 1.4% in the biggest weekly jump against the yen in three months.Strong resistance can be seen at 151.86(Daily high),an upside break can trigger rise towards 152.29(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 151.21 (38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 150.66 (11DMA).
Equities Recap
European stocks started on a strong footing on Monday after Wall Street's positive close on Friday, with focus turning to U.S. inflation data for more clues on whether interest rates have peaked.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.59 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.20percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.28 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices steadied near a three-week low on Monday as investors awaited U.S. inflation data due this week to gauge the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path.
Spot gold was little changed at $1,936.67 per ounce, as of 1212 GMT. U.S. gold futures gained 0.2% to $1,940.60.
Oil prices wavered on Monday, as renewed concerns over waning demand in the United States and China, coupled with mixed signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve, kept markets uncertain.
Brent crude futures for January were down 8 cents at $81.35 a barrel at 0916 GMT, after losing $1 in earlier trading, while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for December were at $77.11, down 6 cents.