Posted at 10 November 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 0.0%, -0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
•UK GDP (GDP (YoY) (Q3) 0.6%,0.5% forecast, 0.6% previous
•UK Sep Industrial Production (YoY) 1.5%, 1.1% forecast, 1.3% previous
•UK Sep Manufacturing Production (MoM) 0.1%, 0.3% forecast, -0.8% previous
•UK Sep Industrial Production (MoM) 0.0%, 0.1% forecast,-0.7% previous
•UK Sep Manufacturing Production (YoY) 3.0%, 3.1% forecast,2.8% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•13:00 UK NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker -0.1% previous
•15:00 US Nov Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 3.0% previous
•15:00 US Nov Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations 4.2% previous
•15:00 US Nov Michigan Consumer Expectations 59.5 forecast, 59.3 previous
•15:00 US Nov Michigan Current Conditions 69.5 forecast,70.6 previous
•15:00 US Nov Michigan Consumer Sentiment 63.7 forecast,63.8 previous
•15:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 40.2 forecast,36.3 previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 496 previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 618 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•12:15 US Fed Logan Speaks
•12:15 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against dollar on Friday as investors digested comments from Federal Reserve Officials .Fed officials including Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday expressed uncertainty on their battle against inflation and added that they would tighten policy further, if needed. The comments follow European Central Bank and Bank of England policymakers also recently pushing back against expectations around rate cuts . Traders pushed out bets on the Fed’s first rate cut to June of next year, from May earlier. The euro was last 0.08% higher at $1.0674, but not far from Monday's near two-month peak of $1.0765. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0690(Dailyu high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0711(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0664 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0648(11DMA).
GBP/USD:The pound weakened against the dollar on Friday as markets digested data showing Britain’s economy failed to grow in the third quarter, though this was slightly above expectations. Numbers showed a 0% change in gross domestic product in the July-September period compared with a forecast for a 0.1% fall in a poll of economists, which many analysts said would likely represent the start of a recession. Markets are currently pricing in around 40 basis points of Bank of England rate cuts by September, less than for the U.S. Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2248(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2322(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2206 (21DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2150(23.6%fib).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar strengthened against Swiss franc on Friday as hawkish cues from Federal Reserve Chair Powell boosted greenback.U.S. Fed officials are not confident that interest rates are yet high enough to finish the battle with inflation, and may be nearing the end of how much help they can expect in lowering price pressures, Powell said on Thursday. Data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits edged down last week, signalling that layoffs remain low even as the still-strong job market shows some signs of cooling. Traders pushed out bets on the Fed’s likely first interest-rate cut to June of next year from May earlier. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9041(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9077(Nov 3rd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8994 (21DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8974 (50%fib)
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against yen on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and a chorus of other officials stressed that the central bank may have to hike rates again.A slew of Fed policymakers including Powell said on Thursday they are still not sure that interest rates are high enough to finish the battle with inflation. Investors saw the comments as hawkish, pushing bond yields and the dollar higher. The dollar stood near a one-year high at 151.43 yen on Friday. It was on track for a weekly gain of 1.39% against the yen, its biggest increase since August. Strong resistance can be seen at 150.51(Daily high),an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.84(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 150.93 (38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 150.83 (11DMA).
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Friday, hurt by higher bond yields, as hawkish comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve Chair poured cold water on investor optimism around a peak in interest rates.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 1.32 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.78 percent, France’s CAC was down by 1.16 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold fell on Friday and was bound for a second straight weekly drop on cooling safe-haven demand and hawkish cues from Federal Reserve Chair Powell.
Spot gold fell 0.3% to $1,951.89 per ounce by 1117 GMT after hitting its lowest since Oct. 18 on Thursday. U.S. gold futures fell 0.7% to $1,956.50.
Oil prices rose on Friday but are set to fall for a third week amid signs of slowing demand and as market attention turns to a key meeting of OPEC and its allies this month which will determine the group's next move on production.
Brent crude futures for January were up 84 cents, or 1.1%, at $80.85 a barrel at 1109 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for December were at $76.52, up 78 cents, or 1%.