Posted at 09 November 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Italian 12-Month BOT Auction 3.860% ,3.942% previous
•Irish CPI (YoY) 5.1% ,6.4% previous
•Irish Oct HICP (YoY) 3.6% ,3.6% forecast, 5.0% previous
•Irish Oct CPI (MoM) 0.3% ,0.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 210.00K previous
•13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,820K forecast,1,818K previous
•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 215K forecast,217K previous
•15:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 40.2 forecast, 36.3 previous
•15:30 US Natural Gas Storage 79B previous
•16:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 5.290% previous
•16:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release (GMT)
•14:30 US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined against dollar on Thursday after European Central Bank officials played down market bets around rate cuts. ECB policymakers on Wednesday said further progress is needed to tame inflation, while Vice President Luis de Guindos in an interview on Thursday said it is It is premature to discuss European Central Bank rate cuts as there are still some risks to the inflation outlook, particularly for underlying prices .The euro was last 0.2% lower at $1.0688, but not far from Monday's near two-month peak of $1.0765. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0736(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0762 (Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0684 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0639(11DMA).
GBP/USD:The pound weakened against the dollar on Thursday after Bank of England (BoE) policymakers, including Chief Economist Huw Pill, reiterated policy will need to remain restrictive for some time. Earlier this week, Pill had said market pricing pointing towards a first interest rate cut in August 2024 “doesn’t seem totally unreasonable .But on Wednesday, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey reiterated that monetary policy would need to remain restrictive for an extended period. The pound was last down 0.2% against a strengthening dollar at $1.2259, and off a near two-month high of $1.2428 touched on Monday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2302(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2332(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2245(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2226(11DMA).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar was little changed against Swiss franc on Thursday ahead of a speech by the Federal Reserve Chair that could provide insight on possible direction for U.S. interest rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will give a speech at 1900 GMT, which investors hope will hint at the future interest rate path for the world's biggest economy. A slew of Fed officials who spoke this week maintained a balanced tone on the central bank’s next decision, but noted they would focus on more economic data and impact of higher long-term bond yields.The dollar was last up 0.16% against the Swiss franc at 0.9006 francs. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9023(11DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9077(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8980 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8951 (Nov 6th low).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against yen on Thursday but gains were limited as investors remained on sidelines ahead of U.S. jobless claims data and a speech by the Federal Reserve chair later in the day. The dollar was almost stationary at 151.04. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies of major trading partners, was pretty lifeless too at 105.57, having risen around 2.5% since early October. The U.S weekly jobless claims published on Thursday will be closely watched as an indicator of the how the country's labour market is performing. Economists predict claims will reach 219,000 after coming in at 217,000 last week. Strong resistance can be seen at 150.18(38.2 %fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 152.00(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 150.48 (50 %fib)a break below could take the pair towards 150.32 (11DMA).
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Thursday, boosted by AstraZeneca and Adyen on strong earnings, while markets awaited the Federal Reserve Chair's remarks on the monetary policy outlook after European Central Bank officials played down market bets around rate cuts.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.47 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.50 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.85 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold was on track for a fourth straight day of decline on Thursday as safe-haven demand cooled, while the spotlight shifted to U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech for cues on interest rates.
Spot gold was down 0.1% at $1,948.39 per ounce by 1141 GMT after hitting its lowest since Oct. 18. U.S. gold futures fell 0.2% to $1,953.30.
The Brent crude oil benchmark hovered around $80 a barrel on Thursday, with demand concerns and a waning war-risk premium having triggered a selloff over the past week.
Brent crude futures were up 45 cents at $79.99 a barrel by 1147 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 43 cents to $75.76.