Posted at 09 November 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Canada Sep Building Permits (MoM) -6.5%,-1.6%forecast,3.4% previous
•US Sep Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) 0.2%, 1.8% previous
•US Nov Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI 52.15, 52.02 previous
•US Sep Wholesale Inventories (MoM) 2.2% ,0.0% forecast,-0.1% previous
•US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) 2.1%, 2.1% forecast,2.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 01:30 China Oct CPI (YoY) -0.2% forecast, 0.0% previous
• 01:30 China Oct CPI (MoM) 0.2% previous
• 01:30 China Oct PPI (YoY) -2.8% forecast, -2.5% previous
• 05:00 Japan Oct Economy Watchers Current Index 50.1 forecast, 49.9 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro initially dipped against dollar on Wednesday but recovered some ground as investors looked for fresh cues on the U.S. central bank's interest rate stance. Fed Chair Jerome Powell did not comment on monetary policy or the economic outlook in prepared remarks at a U.S. central bank statistic conference on Wednesday. Investors have ramped up bets for Fed rate cuts next year, though the timing is unclear. Markets are pricing in an almost 50% chance of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points as soon as May, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, up from about 41% a week earlier. The euro edged up 0.02% to $1.0702.The single currency was hurt earlier on Wednesday by data showing that retail sales in September fell 0.3% month-on-month in the bloc. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0710(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0766 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0657(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0639(9DMA).
GBP/USD: The pound weakened against the dollar on Wednesday as markets continued to digest remarks from the Bank of England’s chief economist that interest rate cuts could come around the middle of 2024. Markets were focusing on remarks from the BoE’s Chief Economist Huw Pill on Monday that pricing in financial markets that currently points to a first rate cut to Bank Rate in August 2024 doesn’t seem totally unreasonable. Though governor Andrew Bailey, on Wednesday, said it was really too early to be talking about cutting rates. The pound was last down 0.4% against the dollar at $1.2251, and off a near two-month high of $1.2428 hit Monday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2302(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2344(Nov 7th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2214(11DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2182(23.6%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday as oil prices tumbled and despite minutes from the Bank of Canada's latest meeting showing that some policymakers saw the need for more interest rate hikes. Oil, one of Canada's major exports, settled 2.6% lower at $75.33 a barrel on concerns over waning demand in the U.S. and China. Since the start of the week, oil has fallen more than 6%.Some members of the BoC's policy-setting governing council saw the likely need for further interest-rate hikes when they left borrowing costs on hold on Oct. 25, minutes showed.The loonie was trading 0.2% lower at 1.38 to the greenback, or 72.46 U.S. cents, after moving in a range of 1.3756 to 1.3814.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3814 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3845(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3766 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3746(21DMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against yen on Wednesday as investors looked for more clarity on interest rates from the Federal Reserve A slew of Fed officials on Tuesday maintained a balanced tone on the central bank’s next decision, but noted they would focus on more economic data and the impact of higher long-term bond yields. Investors now look forward to comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is set to speak on Thursday. Traders also remained on alert for potential intervention in the Japanese currency as it rose above the 151 level against the dollar, its weakest level in a week. The dollar gained 0.41% to 151.03 Japanese yen. Strong resistance can be seen at 150.86(Daily high),an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.89 (5DMA)a break below could take the pair towards 149.34 (38.2 %fib).
Equities Recap
European shares edged lower on Wednesday, with utilities and financials taking the biggest hit, as investors assessed economic data and corporate earnings ahead of remarks from major central bank chiefs during the day.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.11 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.51 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.71 percent.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq eked out small gains on Wednesday to extend their recent winning streaks as investors weighed Federal Reserve officials' recent comments for signals on the path of interest rates and focused on the direction of Treasury yields.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.10% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.10 % percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.08% percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields were mixed, with declines in longer maturities, ahead of Wednesday's 10-year note auction that could show higher demand after a big drop in rates since the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its last meeting.
The benchmark 10-year yield was last down 3.1 basis points (bps) at 4.539% . Since the Fed's Nov. 1 meeting, 10-year yields have dropped about 39 bps.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices retreated for a third straight session on Wednesday as investors looked for fresh cues on the U.S. central bank's interest rate stance, while palladium hit a five-year low.
Spot gold was down 1% at $1,947.89 per ounce by 3:01 p.m. ET (2001 GMT), logging its biggest daily drop since Oct. 2. U.S. gold futures settled 0.8% lower at $1,957.8.
Oil prices slid over 2% on Wednesday to their lowest in more than three months on concerns over waning demand in the U.S. and China.
Brent crude futures settled down $2.07, or 2.5%, to $79.54 a barrel. U.S. crude lost $2.04, or 2.6%, to $75.33. Both benchmarks hit their lowest since mid-July.