Posted at 08 November 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German Oct HICP (MoM) -0.2%,-0.2% forecast,0.2% previous
•German Oct German CPI (MoM) 0.0%, 0.0% forecast,0.3% previous
•German Oct HICP (YoY) 3.0%,3.0% forecast,4.3% previous
•German Oct CPI (YoY) 3.8%,3.8% forecast,4.5% previous
•French Oct Reserve Assets Total 224,598.0M, 214,351.0M previous
•French Sep Trade Balance -8.9B,-8.1B forecast,-8.2B previous
•French Sep Imports 58.0B,59.0B previous
•French Sep French Current Account -2.50B,-0.80B previous
•EU Sep Retail Sales (MoM)-0.3%,-0.2% forecast,-1.2% previous
•EU Sep Retail Sales (YoY) -2.9% , 3.1 forecast,-2.1% previous
•EU Sep Retail Sales (MoM) -0.3%,-0.2% forecast,-1.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•14:30 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 40.2 forecast,36.3 previous
•14: 30 US Sep Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) 1.8% previous
•14: 30 US Nov Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI 52.02 previous
•14: 30 Canada Nov Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (MoM) 45.56 previous
•14: 30 US Sep Wholesale Inventories (MoM) 0.0% forecast,-0.1% previous
•16:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) 2.1% forecast,2.1% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•18:30 Canada BOC Summary of Deliberations
•18:40 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
•19:00 USFed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined against dollar on Wednesday as single currency weighed by a darkening growth outlook in the euro zone. Euro zone retail sales fell roughly in line with expectations in September, data showed on Wednesday, highlighting weak consumer demand and the prospect of recession. The European Union's statistics office Eurostat said retail sales in the 20 countries sharing the euro fell 0.3% month-on-month and by 2.9% year-on-year in September. The euro zone economy shrank by 0.1% in the three months to September, data showed last week, and a key purchasing managers' survey showed the fourth quarter has got off to a poor start. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0710(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0766 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0657(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0639(9DMA).
GBP/USD:The pound weakened against the dollar on Wednesday as markets continued to digest remarks from the Bank of England’s chief economist that interest rate cuts could come around the middle of 2024. Markets were focusing on remarks from the BoE’s Chief Economist Huw Pill on Monday that pricing in financial markets that currently points to a first rate cut to Bank Rate in August 2024 doesn’t seem totally unreasonable. Though governor Andrew Bailey, on Wednesday, said it was really too early to be talking about cutting rates. The pound was last down 0.4% against the dollar at $1.2251, and off a near two-month high of $1.2428 hit Monday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2302(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2344(Nov 7th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2214(11DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2182(23.6%fib).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar was little changed against Swiss franc on Wednesday as traders waited to see if U.S. Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell will push back against rate-cut talk when he speaks later in the day. A slew of Fed officials on Tuesday maintained a balanced tone on the central bank’s next decision, but noted they would focus on more economic data and the impact of higher long-term bond yields. Investors now look forward to comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is set to speak on Wednesday and Thursday. The dollar was last up 0.29% against the Swiss franc at 0.8935 francs. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9033(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9071(Nov 2nd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8987 (14DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8958 (50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against yen on Wednesday after some Federal Reserve policymakers left the door open to further rate hikes, as traders looked to a speech from Chair Jerome Powell on the central bank's future policy path. A slew of Fed policymakers on Tuesday maintained a balanced tone and said they were weighing strong economic data, some signs of a slowdown, and the impact of higher long-term bond yields as they considered whether they would need to hike rates further to bring down inflation.Focus now turns to remarks from Fed Chair Powell later on Wednesday. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.2% to 105.75 and was on track for a weekly gain. Strong resistance can be seen at 150.86(Daily high),an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.89 (5DMA)a break below could take the pair towards 149.34 (38.2 %fib).
Equities Recap
European shares edged higher on Wednesday as investors assessed economic data and corporate earnings ahead of remarks from major central bank chiefs during the day.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.20 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.63percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.93 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold fell for a third straight session on Wednesday, with markets focusing on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks, while auto-catalyst palladium extended its retreat to a five-year low.
Spot gold was down 0.3% at $1,961.70 per ounce by 1227 GMT. U.S. gold futures slipped 0.2% to $1,968.80.
Oil prices slid more than $1 on Wednesday to their lowest in more than three months on concern over waning demand in the United States and China.
Brent crude futures fell $1.11 to $80.50 a barrel by 1311 GMT and U.S. crude lost $1.20 to $76.17, with both benchmarks registering their lowest levels since late July.