Posted at 08 November 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Canada Sep Imports 64.99B ,63.84B previous
•Canada Sep Trade Balance 2.04B,1.00B forecast,0.72B previous
•Canada Sep Trade Balance -61.50B, -59.90B forecast,-58.30B previous
•Canada Sep Exports 67.03B, 64.56B previous
•US Exports 261.10B,256.00B previous
•US Imports 322.70B,314.30B previous
•US Redbook (YoY) 3.1%, 5.3% previous
•GlobalDairyTrade Price Index-0.7%, 4.3% previous
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) 2.1%, 1.2% forecast,1.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•00:30 Australia Private House Approvals -4.6% forecast,5.8% previous
•00:30 Australia RBA Chart Pack Release
•00:30 Australia Building Approvals (MoM) -4.6% forecast, 7.0% previous
•02:00 New Zealand Inflation Expectations (QoQ) 2.8% previous
•05:00 Japan Sep Coincident Indicator (MoM) 0.4% previous
•05:00 Japan Sep Leading Index (MoM) 1.0% previous
•05:00 Japan Leading Index108.8 forecast,109.2 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro eased on Tuesday after data showed German industrial output fell more than forecast in September. German industrial production fell more than expected in September, data showed on Tuesday, as a recent slump in incoming orders took its toll on production. Production fell in September by 1.4% compared with the previous month, the federal statistics office said. Analysts polled had predicted a 0.1% decline. In a less volatile quarter-on-quarter comparison, production in the third quarter of 2023 was 2.1% lower than in the second quarter, the statistics office said. After a revision of the provisional results, production decreased by 0.1% in August compared with July, less than the 0.2% of the provisional figure. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0741(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0756 (Nov 6th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0669(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0618(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling dropped against a strengthening U.S. dollar on Tuesday, with investors closely watching economic data and market bets on the Bank of England’s future moves. Investors remain on hold ahead of Friday's economic data, including gross domestic product, the balance of trade and industrial production. The Bank of England might wait until the middle of next year before cutting interest rates from their current 15-year high, the BoE's Chief Economist Huw Pill said on Monday Money markets priced in more than a 50% chance of rates being unchanged until June 2024 and a higher chance of a 25 basis points rate cut in August next year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2336(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2406(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2275(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2214(61.8%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday as currency markets unwound some recent sharp moves that had pressured the greenback and despite domestic data showing a wider-than-expected trade surplus in September. The U.S. dollar gained on Tuesday against a basket of major currencies as a sharp selloff last week was seen as overdone in the short term. A sharp decline in the price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, was another headwind for the Canadian currency. U.S. crude oil futures settled 4.3% lower at $77.37 a barrel The loonie was trading 0.4% lower at 1.3754 to the greenback, or 72.71 U.S. cents, after trading in a range of 1.3691 to 1.3782. On Monday, it touched its strongest intraday level in nearly three weeks at 1.3627.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3792 (11DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3814 (11DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3733 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3668(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against yen on Tuesday as traders braced for Fed speeches. Investors now awaited a host of speeches from Fed officials this week, with the spotlight on Chair Jerome Powell, who is due to speak on Wednesday and Thursday. Investors see a 90% chance of the Fed leaving rates unchanged in its December meeting, and a nearly 80% chance of introducing a cut as early as June next year, according to CME FedWatch tool. However, Fed Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said the central bank likely has more work ahead of it to control inflation. The dollar gained 0.24% on the Japanese yen to 150.37 yen, back above the 150-level. Strong resistance can be seen at 150.58(23.6%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.89 (5DMA)a break below could take the pair towards 149.34 (38.2 %fib).
Equities Recap
European shares continued to lose ground on Tuesday, dragged by energy stocks, while financial services got a boost from Switzerland's biggest bank UBS Group jumping to a more than one-month high following its third-quarter results.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.10 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.11 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.38 percent.
U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notching their longest streak of gains in two years, as a retreat in U.S. Treasury yields buoyed megacap growth stocks while investors sought more clarity on interest rates from the Federal Reserve.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.17 % percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.28% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.90 % percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields fell on Tuesday, with those on benchmark 10-year notes dropping in five of the last six sessions, as bond investors continued to price in expectations that the Federal Reserve is near the end of its tightening cycle.
The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes was down 7.5 bps at 4.587%.U.S. 30-year yields were dropped 9.1 bps to 4.740%
Commodities Recap
Gold hit a two-week low on Tuesday as a safe-haven rally triggered by Middle East tensions lost steam with the market focus turning to interest rate cues from Federal Reserve officials, while palladium slid to a five-year low.
Spot gold fell 0.5% to $1,968.19 per ounce by 3:20 p.m. ET (2020 GMT), its lowest since Oct. 24. U.S. gold futures settled down 0.8% at $1,973.50.
Oil prices fell more than 4% on Tuesday to their lowest since late July, as mixed Chinese economic data and rising OPEC exports eased fears about tight markets and as the dollar strengthened.
Brent crude futures closed below $84 a barrel for the first time since Hamas Islamists' Oct. 7 attack on Israel. The global benchmark settled at $81.61 a barrel, down $3.57, or 4.2%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled at $77.37 a barrel, down $3.45, or 4.3%.