Posted at 07 November 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Swiss Oct Unemployment Rate n.s.a. 2.0%,2.0% previous
•Swiss Oct Unemployment Rate s.a 2.1%,2.1% forecast,2.1% previous
•German Sep Industrial Production (YoY) -3.86%,-1.75% previous
•UK Oct Halifax House Price Index (MoM) 1.1% ,0.2% forecast,-0.4% previous
•UK Oct Halifax House Price Index (YoY) -3.2%, -4.7% previous
•German Sep German Industrial Production (MoM) -1.4%,-0.1% forecast,-0.2% previous
•French Oct IHS S&P Global Construction PMI (MoM) 41.0,43.7 previous
•French Oct Italian IHS S&P Global Construction PMI (MoM) 51.8,49.8 previous
•EU Oct M2 Money Supply (MoM) 42.7, 43.6 previous
•German Oct IHS S&P Global Construction PMI 38.3 forecast, 39.3 previous
•EU Sep PPI (YoY) -12.4%,-12.5% forecast,-11.5% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•13:30 Canada Sep Imports 63.84B previous
•13:30 Canada Sep Trade Balance 1.00B forecast,0.72B previous
•13:30 Canada Sep Trade Balance -59.90B forecast,-58.30B previous
•13:30 Canada Sep Exports 64.56B previous
•13:30 US Exports 256.00B previous
•13:30 US Imports 314.30B previous
•13:55 US Redbook (YoY) 5.3% previous
•15:00 GlobalDairyTrade Price Index 4.3% previous
•15:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 40.2 forecast,36.3 previous
•16:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) 1.2% forecast,1.2% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•15:00 US Fed Waller Speaks
•14:15 US Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks
•13:30 EU ECB's Enria Speaks
•16:00 Canada BoC Deputy Gov Kozicki Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased on Tuesday after data showed German industrial output fell more than forecast in September. German industrial production fell more than expected in September, data showed on Tuesday, as a recent slump in incoming orders took its toll on production. Production fell in September by 1.4% compared with the previous month, the federal statistics office said. Analysts polled had predicted a 0.1% decline. In a less volatile quarter-on-quarter comparison, production in the third quarter of 2023 was 2.1% lower than in the second quarter, the statistics office said. After a revision of the provisional results, production decreased by 0.1% in August compared with July, less than the 0.2% of the provisional figure. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0741(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0756 (Nov 6th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0669(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0618(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling dropped against a strengthening U.S. dollar on Tuesday, with investors closely watching economic data and market bets on the Bank of England’s future moves. Investors remain on hold ahead of Friday's economic data, including gross domestic product, the balance of trade and industrial production. The Bank of England might wait until the middle of next year before cutting interest rates from their current 15-year high, the BoE's Chief Economist Huw Pill said on Monday Money markets priced in more than a 50% chance of rates being unchanged until June 2024 and a higher chance of a 25 basis points rate cut in August next year.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2336(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2406(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2275(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2214(61.8%fib).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar edged higher against Swiss franc on Tuesday as investors awaited comments from Federal Reserve officials including Chair Jerome Powell. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said on Monday the U.S. central bank likely has more work ahead to control inflation.Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is due to speak on Wednesday and Thursday, when the focal point will be whether he maintains the more dovish tone struck after the Fed's policy meeting last week. The dollar was last up 0.29% against the Swiss franc at 0.8935 francs. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9033(38.2%fib ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9071(Nov 2nd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8992 (14DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8958 (50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against yen on Tuesday as traders braced for Fed speeches. Investors now await a host of speeches from Fed officials this week, with the spotlight on Chair Jerome Powell, who is due to speak on Wednesday and Thursday. Investors see a 90% chance of the Fed leaving rates unchanged in its December meeting, and a nearly 80% chance of introducing a cut as early as June next year, according to CME FedWatch tool. However, Fed Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said the central bank likely has more work ahead of it to control inflation. The dollar gained 0.24% on the Japanese yen to 150.43 yen, back above the 150-level. Strong resistance can be seen at 150.58(23.6%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.89 (5DMA)a break below could take the pair towards 149.34 (38.2 %fib).
Equities Recap
European shares continued to lose ground on Tuesday, dragged by energy stocks, while financial services got a boost from Switzerland's biggest bank UBS Group jumping to a more than one-month high following its third-quarter results.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.10 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.24 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.57 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold fell to a near two-week low on Tuesday on a firmer dollar, with traders positioning for interest rate cues from a host of Federal Reserve speakers this week.
Spot gold fell 0.5% to $1,967.09 per ounce by 1050 GMT, its lowest since Oct. 25. U.S. gold futures dropped 0.8% to $1,973.50.
Oil prices hit fresh 2-1/2-month lows on Tuesday as mixed economic data from China offset the impact of Saudi Arabia and Russia extending output cuts.
Brent crude futures were down $1.65, or 1.94%, to $83.53 a barrel as of 0920 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $79.21 a barrel, down $1.61, or 1.99%. Both hit their lowest levels since late August.