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America’s Roundup: Dollar rebounds, Fed officials take center stage, Wall Street ends higher, Gold eases, Oil rises as Saudi Arabia and Russia stick to supply cuts-November 7th,2023

Posted at 07 November 2023 / Categories Market Roundups


Market Roundup

•French 12-Month BTF Auction3.682%   , 3.711% previous

•French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.796%,3.745% previous

•French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.758%,3.797% previous

•US Oct CB Employment Trends Index  114.16    , 114.66 previous

•Canada Oct Ivey PMI n.s.a  51.9, 54.2 previous

•Canada Oct Ivey PMI  53.4 ,54.0 forecast,53.1 previous

•US 3-Month Bill Auction  5.285%, 5.325% previous

•US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.260%, 5.320% previous

Looking  Ahead Economic Data(GMT)

•03:00   China Oct  Imports   -0.80M previous

•03:00   China Oct  Trade Balance  81.95B forecast,77.71B previous

•03:00   China Oct  Imports (YoY) -5.4%   forecast, -6.2% previous

•03:00   China Oct  Exports (YoY) -3.1% forecast,-6.2% previous

Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)

• 03:30  Australia Nov RBA Interest Rate Decision 4.35% forecast,4.10% previous

• 03:30  Australia Nov Rate Statement
    
Currency Summaries

EUR/USD: The euro eased   on Monday as data showed the downturn in euro zone business activity accelerated last month. The downturn in euro zone business activity accelerated last month as demand in the dominant services industry weakened further, a survey showed on Monday, suggesting there is a growing chance of a recession in the 20-country currency union. The economy contracted 0.1% in the third quarter, official data has shown, and Monday's final Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October indicated the bloc entered the final quarter of 2023 on the back foot.HCOB's PMI, compiled by S&P Global and seen as a good guide of overall economic health, fell to 46.5 in October from September's 47.2, its lowest reading since November 2020. The euro dipped 0.06% to $1.0723 after earlier rallying to $1.0756, the highest since Sept. 13. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0744(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0822 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at  1.0684(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0576(5DMA).

GBP/USD: The pound rose on Monday, extending the previous week's rally, as a slide in U.S. bond yields continued to weigh on the dollar. The U.S. dollar index , which tracks the greenback against other major currencies, dropped 1.4% last week after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and economic data suggested the U.S. economy might finally be slowing. Financial markets over the last few months have been dominated by a sharp rise in U.S. bond yields on the back of a American economy that continued to power ahead.Yet the Fed's meeting last week and the softer U.S. data raised investors' hopes that the next move in interest rates will be down.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2420(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2495(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2339(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2300 (61.8%fib). 

USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Monday, pulling back from an almost-three-week high, as financial markets globally consolidated last week’s sharp moves. Last week, the currency posted its biggest weekly gain since March after data showing a slowdown in U.S. job growth bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve is finished raising interest rates. Domestic data showed that economic activity expanded at a slightly faster pace in October. The seasonally adjusted Ivey Purchasing Managers Index rose to 53.4 from 53.1 in September. U.S. crude prices were up 0.8% at $81.11 a barrel, while Canadian government bond yields rose across the curve, tracking moves in U.S. Treasuries. The loonie was trading 0.2% lower at 1.3680 to the greenback  .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3722 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3730 (5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3640 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3579 (50%fib).

USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against yen  on Monday as traders awaited further cues on the U.S. central bank’s monetary policy path with Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell and a slew of Fed members’ speeches due this week. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is due to speak on Wednesday and Thursday, where the focal point will be on whether he maintains the more dovish tone he struck after the Fed’s two-day meeting last week.Comments from other Fed officials will also be evaluated for signs on whether they expect further rate increases. Weaker than expected jobs growth in October released on Friday added to expectations of a slowing U.S. economy, which would support the Fed continuing to hold rates steady. The next major driver for markets will likely be next week’s consumer price inflation data for October. Strong resistance can be seen at 150.09(11DMA),an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.68(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.16 (11DMA)a break below could take the pair towards 148.00 (Psychological level).

 Equities Recap

European shares eased on Monday after the benchmark index posted its biggest weekly jump since March, with the real estate sector losing steam, while Ryanair jumped following a forecast for record annual profit.

UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by  0.02 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.35 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.46  percent.                               

U.S. stocks closed slightly higher on Monday as investors awaited guidance from a host of Federal Reserve policymakers later in the week on the central bank's policy path, with a large amount of bond supply also due to hit the market.

Dow Jones closed up by 0.10%percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.18 % percent, Nasdaq settled up by  0.30  % percent.

Commodities Recap

Gold eased on Monday as U.S. Treasury yields rose, with investors remaining cautious as they gear up for a host of Federal Reserve speakers this week including Jerome Powell for clarity on U.S. rate cuts.

Spot gold fell 0.7% to $1,979.19 per ounce by 2:41 p.m. ET (1941 GMT) after rising above the key $2,000 level on Friday. U.S. gold futures settled 0.5% lower at $1,988.60.

Oil prices edged higher on Monday after top exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia reaffirmed their commitment to extra voluntary oil supply cuts until the end of the year.

Brent crude futures settled 29 cents, or 0.34%, higher at $85.18 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 31 cents, or 0.4%, at $80.82.


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