Posted at 06 November 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German Sep Factory Orders (MoM) 0.2%,-1.0%forecast,3.9%previous
•Spanish Oct Services PMI 51.1, 49.3 forecast,50.5 previous
•Italian Oct Composite PMI 47.0, 49.2 previous
•Italian Oct Italian Services PMI 47.7,48.5 forecast,49.9 previous
•French Oct S&P Global Composite PMI 44.6,45.3 forecast,44.1 previous
•French Services PMI 45.2,46.1 forecast,44.4 previous
•German Oct Composite PMI 45.9,45.8 forecast,46.4 previous
•German Oct German Services PMI 48.2,48.0 forecast,50.3 previous
•EU Oct Services PMI 47.8,47.8 forecast,47.8 previous
•EU Oct S&P Global Composite PMI 46.5 ,46.5 forecast,46.5 previous
•UK Oct Construction PMI 45.6 ,46.0 forecast,45.0 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:55 French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.711% previous
•13:55 French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.745% previous
•13:55 French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.797% previous
•15:00 US Oct CB Employment Trends Index 114.66 previous
•15:00 Canada Oct Ivey PMI n.s.a 54.2 previous
•15:00 Canada Oct Ivey PMI 54.0 forecast,53.1 previous
•16:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.325% previous
•16:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.320% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•17:00 German Buba Mauderer Speaks
•18:00 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Monday as U.S. dollar extended its decline following last week after the Federal Reserve dialled down its hawkish rhetoric and U.S. data showed signs of moderation. Other indicators such as weakness in U.S. jobs data, softer manufacturing numbers and a decline in longer dated Treasury yields also hurt the dollar. Futures markets implied a 90% chance the Fed was done hiking, and an 86% chance the first policy easing would come as soon as June. The euro gained 0.2% to a 7-1/2 week high of $1.0756.The dollar index eased 0.2% to 104.85, its lowest level in 6-1/2 weeks, after falling 1.4% last week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0744(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0822 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0684(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0576(5DMA).
GBP/USD: The pound rose on Monday, extending the previous week's rally, as a slide in U.S. bond yields continued to weigh on the dollar. The U.S. dollar index , which tracks the greenback against other major currencies, dropped 1.4% last week after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and economic data suggested the U.S. economy might finally be slowing. Financial markets over the last few months have been dominated by a sharp rise in U.S. bond yields on the back of a American economy that continued to power ahead.Yet the Fed's meeting last week and the softer U.S. data raised investors' hopes that the next move in interest rates will be down. Sterling was last up 0.23% at $1.2409, trading at its highest in more than a month after posting its best weekly performance in a year last week with a rise of 2.1%.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2420(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2495(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2358(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2300 (61.8%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar declined against Swiss franc on Monday as recent U.S. economic data fuelled expectations that the Federal Reserve is done hiking interest rate weighed on dollar. A combination of Powell’s speech last week, and weaker than expected U.S. jobs data, raised expectations that the Fed will end the current hiking cycle. Data on Friday showed U.S. jobs growth slowed in October, and the increase in annual wages was the smallest in nearly 2-1/2 years. Investors will be looking out for cues on the Fed’s interest rate path, with at least nine Fed members speaking this week, including Powell on Nov. 9.Traders are now pricing in a 95% chance that the Fed will leave rates unchanged in December and an 86% chance that the first policy easing will come as soon as June. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9006(21DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9047(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8952 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8888 (50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against yen on Monday as traders awaited further cues on the U.S. central bank’s monetary policy path with Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell and a slew of Fed members’ speeches due this week. U.S. jobs data raised hopes that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates, sending the dollar and bond yields lower.The U.S. Labor Department’s report on Friday showed that nonfarm payrolls increased by 150,000 jobs in October, much less than the expected 180,000 increase, partly due to strikes at Detroit’s Big Three automakers. The Japanese yen slipped 0.2% to 149.62.5 per dollar. Strong resistance can be seen at 150.09(11DMA),an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.68(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.16 (11DMA)a break below could take the pair towards 148.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares were lacklustre on Monday after the benchmark index posted its biggest weekly jump since March, with the real estate sector losing steam, while Ryanair hit a one-month high following a forecast of a record annual profit.
At (GMT 12:17),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.10 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.22 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.43 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold inched lower on Monday as risk appetite picked up, while traders awaited further cues on the U.S. central bank’s monetary policy path with Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell and a slew of Fed members’ speeches due this week.
Spot gold was down 0.3% at $1,987.29 per ounce at 1152 GMT after rising above the key $2,000 level on Friday. U.S. gold futures fell 0.2% to $1,994.50.
Oil prices rose on Monday after top exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia reaffirmed their commitment to extra voluntary oil supply cuts until the end of the year.
Brent crude futures rose $1.25, or 1.47%, to $86.14 a barrel by 1145 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up $1.29, or 1.6%, at $81.80.