Posted at 03 November 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• US job growth slows in October
• Canada Oct Reserve Assets Total 112.5B, 112.4B previous
•Canada Oct Full Employment Change -3.3K,15.8K previous
•Canada Oct Part Time Employment Change 20.8K,47.9K previous
•US Oct Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 0.2%,0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
•US Oct Private Nonfarm Payrolls 99K,158K forecast,263K previous
•US Oct Nonfarm Payrolls 150K,180K forecast,336K previous
•US Oct Manufacturing Payrolls -35K, -10K forecast,17K previous
•US Oct Government Payrolls 51.0K, 29.0K forecast,73.0K previous
•Canada Oct Participation Rate 65.6%,65.6% previous
•Canada Oct Avg hourly wages Permanent employee 5.0%, 5.3% previous
•Canada Oct Unemployment Rate 5.7%, 5.6% forecast,5.5% previous
•US Oct Unemployment Rate 3.9%, 3.8% forecast,3.8% previous
•US Oct Average Weekly Hours 34.3,34.4 forecast,34.4 previous
•US Oct Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) 4.1%, 4.0% forecast,4.2% previous
•US Oct Participation Rate 62.7% , 62.8% previous
•US Oct U6 Unemployment Rate 7.2%,7.0% previous
•US Oct Employment Change 17.5K,22.5K forecast,63.8K previous
•US Oct S&P Global Composite PMI 50.7,51.0 forecast,51.0 previous
•US Oct Services PMI 50.6,50.9 forecast,50.1 previous
•US Oct ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders 55.5,51.8 previous
•US Oct ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 51.8, 53.0 forecast,53.6 previous
•US Oct ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices 58.6, 58.9 previous
•US Oct ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity 54.1,58.8 previous
•US Oct ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment 50.2, 53.4 previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 496,504 previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 618 ,625 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release (GMT)
•No Significant Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Friday as dollar dipped after data showed the world's largest economy created fewer jobs than expected last month, reinforcing expectations the Federal Reserve is likely to hold interest rates steady again at its December meeting. Data showed nonfarm payrolls increased by 150,000 jobs last month. The numbers for September were revised lower to show 297,000 jobs created instead of 336,000 as previously reported. The dollar index, a gauge of the greenback against six major currencies, dropped 0.8% to 105.29.The euro was last up 0.8% at $1.0709 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0758(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0798 (Sep 1st high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0703 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0596(5DMA).
GBP/USD: The pound rose against dollar on Friday after data showed U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in October. Analysts think U.S. nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 180,000 jobs in October, slowing from 336,000 in September, partly due to strikes by the United Auto Workers (UAW) union against Detroit's "Big Three" car makers, which depressed manufacturing payrolls. The Bank of England joined other major central banks in holding rates steady on Thursday and while it stressed that it did not expect to start cutting them any time soon, that added a further nudge to the rally in bonds . Traders are now pricing in only a 5% chance of a Fed rate hike in December, down from 20% on Thursday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2230(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2277 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2192(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2165 (11DMA).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened to a two-week high against its U.S. counterpart on Friday as data showing a slowdown in U.S. and Canadian job growth contributed to a further pullback in long-term borrowing costs. The Canadian economy added 17,500 jobs in October, down from 63,800 in September, and the unemployment rate rose to a 21-month high of 5.7%. The data was further evidence the economy has stalled and that the central bank may not need to raise rates again.The loonie was trading 0.6% higher at 1.3660 to the greenback, or 73.21 U.S. cents, after touching its strongest intraday level since Oct. 18 at 1.3655. For the week, the currency was up 1.5%, its biggest weekly advance since March. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3725 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3725 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3649 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3579 (61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined against yen on Friday as greenback weakened after U.S. jobs data bolstered hopes that the U.S. Federal Reserve was done with monetary tightening. The U.S. dollar index dropped to a six-week low after the jobs data .Traders are now pricing in only a 5% chance of a Fed rate hike in December, down from 20% on Thursday, while the odds of a January increase have slipped to 11% from 28%, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. The U.S. dollar index dropped to a six-week low after the jobs data. In afternoon trading, the dollar index fell 1.111% .The Japanese yen strengthened 0.72% versus the greenback at 149.31 per dollar. Strong resistance can be seen at 150.09(11DMA),an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.43(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen 150.16 (50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 148.57 (61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
Europe's benchmark STOXX 600 index posted its biggest weekly gain since March on Friday, supported by interest rate-sensitive real estate stocks as signs of an end to monetary policy tightening by major central banks boosted sentiment.
The UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.39 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.30percent, and France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.16 percent.
Wall Street's main stock indexes rallied on Friday as bond yields fell sharply after data showed signs of slowing U.S. jobs growth and an uptick in unemployment, boosting hopes that the Federal Reserve is done with its interest rate hiking campaign.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.66 percent, S&P 500 was down by 0.94 percent, Nasdaq was down by 1.38 percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields fell to five-week lows on Friday after data showed U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in October.
Benchmark 10-year yields fell as low as 4.484%, the lowest since Sept. 26. Two-year note yields reached 4.807%, the lowest since Sept. 1.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices gained on Friday as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields slipped after weak U.S. jobs data cemented expectations that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates.
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $1,994.28 per ounce by 3:14 p.m. ET (1914 GMT), after hitting a session high of $2,003.69. U.S. gold futures settled 0.3% higher at $1,999.2.
Oil prices settled more than 2% lower on Friday as supply concerns driven by Middle East tensions eased, while jobs data raised expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve could be done hiking interest rates in the biggest oil consuming economy.
Brent crude futures were down $1.92, or 2.3%, to $84.89 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $1.95, or 2.4%, to $80.51 a barrel.