Posted at 03 November 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•U.S. non-farm payrolls report due at 1230 GMT
•Gold down nearly 1% for the week
•German Sep Exports (MoM) -2.4%,-1.1% forecast,-1.2% previous
•German Sep Imports (MoM) -1.7%,0.5% forecast,-0.4% previous
• German Sep Trade Balance 16.5B,16.3B forecast,16.6B previous
• French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (Q3) -0.1%, 0.2% forecast,0.1% previous
• French Sep Industrial Production (MoM) -0.5%,0.0% forecast,-0.3% previous
•UK Oct Services PMI 49.5, 49.2 forecast, 49.2 previous
•UK Oct Composite PMI 48.7,48.6 forecast, 48.6 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 Canada Oct Reserve Assets Total 112.4B previous
•12:30 Canada Oct Full Employment Change 15.8K previous
•12:30 Canada Oct Part Time Employment Change 47.9K previous
•12:30 US Oct Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
•12:30 US Oct Private Nonfarm Payrolls 158K forecast,263K previous
•12:30 US Oct Nonfarm Payrolls 180K forecast,336K previous
•12:30 US Oct Manufacturing Payrolls -10K forecast,17K previous
•12:30 US Oct Government Payrolls 29.0K forecast,73.0K previous
•12:30 Canada Oct Participation Rate 65.6% previous
•12:30 Canada Oct Avg hourly wages Permanent employee 5.3% previous
•12:30 Canada Oct Unemployment Rate 5.6% forecast,5.5% previous
•12:30 US Oct Unemployment Rate 3.8% forecast,3.8% previous
•12:30 US Oct Average Weekly Hours 34.4 forecast,34.4 previous
•12:30 US Oct Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) 4.0% forecast,4.2% previous
•12:30 US Oct Participation Rate 62.8% previous
•12:30 US Oct U6 Unemployment Rate 7.0% previous
•12:30 US Oct Employment Change 22.5K forecast,63.8K previous
•13:45 US Oct S&P Global Composite PMI 51.0 forecast,51.0 previous
•13:45 US Oct Services PMI 50.9 forecast,50.1 previous
•14:00 US Oct ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders 51.8 previous
•14:00 US Oct ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 53.0 forecast,53.6 previous
•14:00 US Oct ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices 58.9 previous
•14:00 US Oct ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity 58.8 previous
•14:00 US Oct ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment 53.4 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 504 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 625 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release (GMT)
•12:30 BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks
•14:00 UK MPC Member Haskel Speaks
•19:30 US Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Friday as dollar dipped as investors bet on the possibility of an end to the U.S. monetary policy tightening after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell seeming more confident suggested that Fed is done hiking interest rates at his press conference after their Wednesday meeting. Markets are now pricing in less than a 20% chance of a rate increase in December compared with 39% earlier in the week, CME FedWatch tool showed, even though the Fed officially left the door open to a further increase in borrowing costs in a nod to the economy's resilience. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0654(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0688 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0614(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0596(5DMA).
GBP/USD: The pound rose against dollar on Friday as sterling was buoyed by the Bank of England’s decision to hold. Britain's services businesses suffered a loss of momentum for a third month in a row in October. The Bank of England kept interest rates at a 15-year high of 5.25% on Thursday and pushed back against suggestions that it would cut rates any time soon, despite forecasting zero growth in 2024, down from its expectations three months ago. On the data front, the S&P Global/CIPS services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) edged up to 49.5 in October from September's eight-month low of 49.3, remaining below the 50 level that divides growth from contraction for a third consecutive month.October's final reading was slightly higher than a preliminary or "flash" reading of 49.2 released last week .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2230(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2277 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2192(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2165 (11DMA).
USD/CHF: The dollar was on the back foot against Swiss franc on Friday as investors awaited key U.S. employment data later in the day. U.S. nonfarm payrolls data due at 1230 GMT (8.30 a.m. ET). Economists expect the U.S. economy added 180,000 jobs in October, after the blockbuster 336,000 increase in September. A decision on Wednesday by the U.S. Treasury to issue less long-term debt than expected also fuelled drop in dollar, as did data on Thursday suggesting the U.S. economy might finally be cooling. Data on Thursday showed U.S. private payrolls increased less than expected in October, while the September JOLTS job openings were at 9.55 million against expectations of 9.25 million. The dollar index was down 0.16% at 106.03 on Friday and on track to fall 0.49% across the week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9066(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9103(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9021 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8988 (11DMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined against yen on Friday as investors looked forward to the U.S. October non-farm payrolls report later in the day for more clues on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. The Fed held rates steady on Wednesday. Investors stepped up bets that the U.S. central bank may be done with rate hikes, sending the dollar lower. U.S. non-farm payrolls data is due at 1230 GMT, which is expected to show that employers added 180,000 jobs last month. Markets are pricing in around an 80% chance that the Fed will leave rates unchanged in December, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Strong resistance can be seen at 150.81(23.6%fib A),an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen 150.16 (11DMA)a break below could take the pair towards 149.81 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
Europe's benchmark STOXX 600 rose on Friday and was set for its best week since March, led by automobile stocks, as signs of an end to monetary policy tightening by major central banks boosted sentiment.
At (GMT 13:30),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.08 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.22 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.06 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold was headed for its first weekly loss in nearly a month on Friday as the safe-haven rally cooled, while traders largely kept to the sidelines ahead of the U.S. non-farm payrolls data due later in the day.
Spot gold ticked up 0.2% to $1,989.83 per ounce by 0955 GMT, trading in a tight $6 range. U.S. gold futures also rose 0.2% to $1,997.40.
Oil prices were little changed on Friday, but headed for a second week of losses as supply concerns driven by conflict in the Middle East eased, while the demand outlook from the world's top crude importer China remained uncertain.
Brent crude futures were down 13 cents, or 0.1%, to $86.72 a barrel at 0955 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures slipped 10 cents, or 0.1%, to $82.36 a barrel.