Posted at 03 November 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q3) 4.7%,4.1% forecast,3.5% previous
•US Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q3)-0.8% ,0.7% forecast,2.2% previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims 217K, 210K forecast,210K previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,818K,1,800K forecast, 1,790K previous
•US Sep Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) 0.8%, 1.4% previous
•US Sep Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) 0.4%, 0.4% previous
•US Sep Factory Orders (MoM) 2.8%, 2.4% forecast, 1.2% previous
•US Sep Total Vehicle Sales 15.50M,15.30M forecast, 15.67M previous
•US Sep Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) 5.7%, 5.8% previous
•US Natural Gas Storage79B, 80B forecast, 74B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•00:30 Australia Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q3) -0.5% previous
•00:30 Australia Retail Sales (MoM)-0.3% forecast,0.2% previous
01:45 China Oct Caixin Services PMI 51.2 forecast, 50.20 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Thursday as dollar dipped as investors bet on the possibility of an end to the U.S. monetary policy tightening after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady. Fed Chair Jerome Powell maintained the option of another rate hike if progress on inflation stalls, but was wary that a rise in market-based interest rates may begin to weigh on the economy. The euro rose more than 0.8% against the dollar to $1.0654. Market focus now shifts to the U.S. non-farm payrolls report due on Friday for further cues on the Fed’s interest rate path .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0654(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0696 (Oct 24th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0596(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0567(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound rose on Thursday after the Bank of England held interest rates at a 15-year high but stressed that it did not intend to cut them any time soon.The Bank left borrowing costs unchanged at 5.25% and published forecasts which showed the British economy was likely to skirt close to a recession and flat-line in the coming years.Sterling extended gains and was last up 0.53% at $1.2214. It was around 0.35% higher before the BoE decision at $1.2193, on a day when a fall in U.S. bond yields was weighing on the dollar. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 6-3 to keep the Bank Rate on hold, in line with economists' expectations .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2218(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.22518(24th Oct high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2159(11DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2121 (23.6%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened by the most in five months against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as investors cheered a drop in long-term borrowing costs one day after the Federal Reserve’s latest move to leave interest rates on hold. Adding to support for the loonie, the price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, settled 2.5% higher at $82.46 a barrel.Canada’s employment report for October, due on Friday, could offer clues about the strength of the domestic economy. Economists forecast a gain of 22,500.The loonie was trading 0.8% higher at 1.3750 to the greenback, or 72.73 U.S. cents, its biggest advance since June 1. The currency was recovering some ground after it hit on Wednesday a one-year low at 1.3899.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3797 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3888 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3722 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3640 (61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined against yen on Thursday as investors grew more convinced that a peak in U.S. interest rates has been reached after the Federal Reserve kept them on hold the previous day. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the situation remained something of a riddle, with U.S. central bank officials willing to raise rates again if progress on inflation stalls, wary that a rise in market-based interest rates may begin to weigh on the economy in a significant way, and trying not to disrupt, any more than necessary, an ongoing dynamic of steady job and wage growth. Markets have priced in a 70% chance that the tightening is over and rate cuts could amount to 85 basis points next year, beginning as soon as June. Strong resistance can be seen at 150.43(23.6%fib A),an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.96 (50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 149.37 (5DMA).
Equities Recap
European shares climbed over 1% on Thursday, led by rate-sensitive real estate and technology stocks, on growing optimism that central banks are done tightening credit after the U.S., UK and Norway kept interest rates unchanged this week.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 1.42 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 1.48 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 1.85 percent.
Wall Street's three main stock indexes rallied nearly 2% on Thursday on hopes that the U.S. Federal Reserve has reached the end of its interest rate hiking campaign and a batch of upbeat quarterly financial updates added to the bullish mood.
Dow Jones closed up by 1.70 %percent, S&P 500 closed up by 1.89% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 1.78 % percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold firmed on Thursday as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields retreated on raised bets that the Federal Reserve may be done raising interest rates, while investors awaited U.S. non-farm payrolls data for further cues.
Spot gold was up 0.2% at $1,985.69 per ounce by 3 p.m. EDT (1900 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled 0.3% higher at $1,993.50.
Oil prices gained more than $2 a barrel on Thursday, breaking a three-day declining streak as risk appetite returned to financial markets a day after the U.S. Federal Reserve kept benchmark interest rates on hold.
Brent crude futures rose $2.22, or 2.6%, to settle at $86.85 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained $2.23, or 2.8%, to close at $82.67 a barrel.