Posted at 02 November 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Swiss Oct CPI (YoY) 1.7%,1.7% forecast,1.7% previous
•Swiss Oct CPI (MoM) 0.1%,0.1% forecast,-0.1% previous
•French Sep Government Budget Balance -186.1B, -187.9B previous
•Swiss SECO Consumer Climate (Q4)-28 ,-8 previous
•Italian Oct Manufacturing PMI 44.9,46.2 forecast,46.8 previous
•French Oct Manufacturing PMI 42.8, 42.6 forecast,44.2 previous
•German Oct Unemployment Rate 5.8%, 5.8% forecast, 5.7% previous
•German Oct Unemployment n.s.a. 2.607M, 2.627M previous
•German Oct German Manufacturing PMI 40.8, 40.7 forecast,39.6 previous
•German Oct German Unemployment 2.678M, 2.642M previous
•German Oct German Unemployment Change 30K,15K forecast,10K previous
•UK Nov BoE Interest Rate Decision 5.25%, 5.25% forecast, 5.25% previous
•UK Nov BoE MPC vote hike 3, 2 forecast, 4 previous
•UK BoE MPC vote unchanged 6, 7 forecast,5 previous
•UK Nov BoE MPC vote cut 0,0 forecast,0 previous
•US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q3) 4.7%,4.1% forecast,3.5% previous
•US Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q3)-0.8% ,0.7% forecast,2.2% previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims 217K, 210K forecast,210K previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,818K,1,800K forecast, 1,790K previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•14:00 US Sep Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) 1.4% previous
•14:00 US Sep Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) 0.4% previous
•14:00 US Sep Factory Orders (MoM) 2.4% forecast, 1.2% previous
•14:00 US Sep Total Vehicle Sales 15.30M forecast, 15.67M previous
•14:00 US Sep Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) 5.8% previous
•14:00 US Natural Gas Storage 80B forecast, 74B previous
•15:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 5.295% previous
•15:30 US8-Week Bill Auction 5.330% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•14:15 BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Thursday as dollar dipped as investors bet on the possibility of an end to the U.S. monetary policy tightening after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady. Fed Chair Jerome Powell maintained the option of another rate hike if progress on inflation stalls, but was wary that a rise in market-based interest rates may begin to weigh on the economy. The euro rose more than 0.8% against the dollar to $1.0654. Market focus now shifts to the U.S. non-farm payrolls report due on Friday for further cues on the Fed’s interest rate path .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0654(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0696 (Oct 24th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0596(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0567(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound rose on Thursday after the Bank of England held interest rates at a 15-year high but stressed that it did not intend to cut them any time soon.The Bank left borrowing costs unchanged at 5.25% and published forecasts which showed the British economy was likely to skirt close to a recession and flat-line in the coming years.Sterling extended gains and was last up 0.53% at $1.2214. It was around 0.35% higher before the BoE decision at $1.2193, on a day when a fall in U.S. bond yields was weighing on the dollar. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 6-3 to keep the Bank Rate on hold, in line with economists' expectations .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2218(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.22518(24th Oct high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2159(11DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2121 (23.6%fib).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar declined against Swiss franc on Thursday after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and acknowledged the tighter financial conditions faced by businesses and households. The Fed held rates steady on Wednesday as widely expected, as policymakers struggled to determine whether financial conditions may be sufficiently tight to control inflation. Traders are now pricing in an 80% chance of another Fed pause in December, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against six other major currencies, was 0.5% lower at 105.94 and down by around 1% from Wednesday's high. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9080(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9094(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9021 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8988 (11DMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined against yen on Thursday as investors grew more convinced that a peak in U.S. interest rates has been reached after the Federal Reserve kept them on hold the previous day. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the situation remained something of a riddle, with U.S. central bank officials willing to raise rates again if progress on inflation stalls, wary that a rise in market-based interest rates may begin to weigh on the economy in a significant way, and trying not to disrupt, any more than necessary, an ongoing dynamic of steady job and wage growth.In a press conference after the end of a two-day policy meeting, Powell said the better course of action for now, given the uncertainties, was to maintain the Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate in the current 5.25%-5.50% range. Strong resistance can be seen at 150.43(23.6%fib A),an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.96 (50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 149.37 (5DMA).
Equities Recap
European shares climbed over 1% on Thursday, led by rate-sensitive real estate and technology stocks, as investors bet on the possibility of an end to the U.S. monetary policy tightening after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady.
At (GMT 13:30),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 1.50 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.62 percent, France’s CAC was up by 2.02 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil gained 1% on Thursday to snap a three-day decline as risk appetite returned to financial markets after the U.S. Federal Reserve kept benchmark interest rates on hold.
Brent crude futures were up 91 cents, or 1.08%, at $85.54 a barrel by 1250 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 83 cents, or 1.03%, to $81.27 a barrel.
Oil gained 1% on Thursday to snap a three-day decline as risk appetite returned to financial markets after the U.S. Federal Reserve kept benchmark interest rates on hold.
Brent crude futures were up 91 cents, or 1.08%, at $85.54 a barrel by 1250 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 83 cents, or 1.03%, to $81.27 a barrel.