Posted at 02 November 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•U.S. Fed keeps interest steady, future hikes possible
•Fed's Powell leaves door open for another rate increase
•But Powell also points to tightening of financial conditions
•U.S. rate futures price in Fed is done
•US Oct ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 113K, 150K forecast,89K previous
•Canada Oct Manufacturing PMI 48.6,47.5 previous
• US Oct Manufacturing PMI 50.0, 50.0 forecast,49.8 previous
• US Oct ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index 45.5, 49.2 previous
•US Sep JOLTs Job Openings 9.553M,9.250M forecast,9.610M previous
•US Oct ISM Manufacturing Prices 45.1,45.0 forecast,43.8 previous
•US Oct ISM Manufacturing Employment 50.3 forecast,51.2 previous
•US Oct ISM Manufacturing PMI 46.8,49.0 forecast,49.0 previous
•US Sep Construction Spending (MoM) 0.4% ,0.4% forecast,0.5% previous
•US Gasoline Inventories0.065M, -0.803M forecast,0.156M previous
•US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 0.272M,0.213M previous
• US Crude Oil Inventories 0.774M, 1.261M forecast,1.371M previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•00:30 Australia Sep Exports (MoM) 4.0% previous
•00:30 Australia Sep Trade Balance 9.500B forecast,9.640B previous
•00:30 Australia Home Loans (MoM) 1.2% forecast, 2.6% previous
•00:30 Australia Invest Housing Finance (MoM) 1.6% previous
•00:30 Australia Sep Imports (MoM) -0.4% previous
•02:00 New Zealand SepM3 Money Supply 403.4B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower against dollar on Wednesday as investors digested Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's statements after its two-day policy meeting suggested the U.S. central bank may be done raising interest rates.The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), as expected, left rates in the 5.25%-5.50% range where they have been since July. The Fed did not rule out another hike as it acknowledged the economy's unexpected resilience despite its aggressive tightening launched more than a year ago.But Powell's remarks in his press briefing were laced with mixed messages that left investors doubtful that the Fed will raise interest rates again.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0611(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0669 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0544(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0516(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened against the dollar on Wednesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates steady and Fed Chair Jerome Powell nodded to the tighter financial conditions faced by businesses and households.The U.S. central bank in a policy statement also left the door open to a further increase in borrowing costs, and it acknowledged the American economy's surprising strength. Powell in a press conference said that market borrowing costs would need to be sustainably higher for that to bear on future central bank monetary policy choices. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2182(21DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2230(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2126(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2077 (Oct 26th low).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged higher against the greenback on Wednesday, but was holding near an earlier one-year low as domestic data showed the factory sector remaining in contraction and the Federal Reserve left the door open to more rate hikes. The S&P Global Canada Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to a seasonally adjusted 48.6 in October from 47.5 in September.The price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, settled 0.7% lower at $80.44 a barrel, while Canadian government bond yields fell across the curve, tracking moves in U.S. Treasuries.The loonie was trading 0.1% higher at 1.3865 to the greenback, or 71.12 U.S. cents, after touching its weakest intraday level since October 2022 at 1.3899. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3851 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3911(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3815 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3739(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged lower against yen on Wednesday after more pointed-than-normal remarks from Japan's top currency diplomat boosted yen . Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda said on Wednesday authorities were on standby to respond to recent "one-sided, sharp" moves in the yen, escalating his warning against speculators as the currency tumbled below a crucial level.Markets have been on alert in recent months for possible yen-buying intervention by Japanese authorities, who are under pressure to combat a sustained depreciation of the currency as it pushes up import prices and households' cost of living.. Strong resistance can be seen at 151.73(23.6%fib A),an upside break can trigger rise towards 152.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen 150.61 (50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 150.37 (5DMA).
Equities Recap
Europe's benchmark index rose marginally on Wednesday, led by healthcare and retail stocks, while investors digested Fed rate decision.
The UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.28 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.76 percent, and France’s CAC finished the up by 0.65 percent.
Wall Street's major indexes closed higher on Wednesday with the Nasdaq's 1.6% advance leading gains, after the U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and comments from its top official fueled investor optimism rate hikes were done even though the central bank left the door open for more.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.67 percent, S&P 500 was up 1.05 percent, Nasdaq was up by 1.64 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell on Wednesday after the U.S. central bank announced its widely expected decision to leave interest rates unchanged and Chair Jerome Powell said the question of rate cuts is not on their radar right now.
Spot gold was down 0.3% to $1,976.39 per ounce by 3:10 p.m. ET (1910 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled down 0.3% at $1,987.50.
Oil prices eased about 1% to a three-week low after the U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady as expected but noted it would keep the door open to possible future rate hikes due to a strong U.S. economy.
Brent futures fell 39 cents, or 0.5%, to settle at $84.63 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 58 cents, or 0.7%, to $80.44.