Posted at 01 November 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Oct Nationwide HPI (MoM) 0.9%,-0.4% forecast, 0.0% previous
•UK Oct Nationwide HPI (YoY) -3.3%,-4.8% forecast,-5.3% previous
• UK Oct Manufacturing PMI 44.8,45.2 forecast,44.3 previous
• UK 5-Year Treasury Gilt Auction 4.474% forecast,4.803% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:15 US Oct ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 150K forecast,89K previous
•13:30 Canada Oct Manufacturing PMI 47.5 previous
•13:45 US Oct Manufacturing PMI 50.0 forecast,49.8 previous
•14:00 US Oct ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index 49.2 previous
•14:00 US Sep JOLTs Job Openings 9.250M forecast,9.610M previous
•14:00 US Oct ISM Manufacturing Prices 45.0 forecast,43.8 previous
•14:00 US Oct ISM Manufacturing Employment 50.3 forecast,51.2 previous
•14:00 US Oct ISM Manufacturing PMI 49.0 forecast,49.0 previous
•14:00 US Sep Construction Spending (MoM) 0.4% forecast,0.5% previous
•14:30 US Gasoline Inventories -0.803M forecast,0.156M previous
•14:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 0.213M previous
•14:30 US Distillate Fuel Production 0.039M previous
•14:30 US Gasoline Production previous
•14:30 US EIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW)-0.207M previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Imports 0.539M previous
•14:30 US Heating Oil Stockpiles -0.037M previous
•14:30 US EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks -1.540M forecast,-1.686M previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories 1.261M forecast,1.371M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release (GMT)
•18:00 US FOMC Statement
•18:30 US FOMC Press Conference
•20:15 BoC Senior Deputy Governor Rogers Speaks
•20:15 BoC Gov Macklem Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower against dollar on Wednesday as euro fell in the wake of Tuesday's fall in growth and inflation data while, investors braced for a policy decision by the Federal Reserve later in the day. October inflation in the Euro zone was at its lowest level in two years, a Eurostat flash reading showed, leading to expectations the European Central Bank is unlikely to hike interest rates soon. ECB vice-president Luis de Guindos welcomed the fall in inflation, particularly in underlying measures, but policymaker Joachim Nagel noted the need to keep rates sufficiently high for long. Investors’ shifted to the end of the Fed’s two-day monetary policy meeting at 1800 GMT, and Powell’s speech at 1830 GMT. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0570(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0600 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0544(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0516(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling declined against the dollar on Wednesday after data showed downturn in UK manufacturing continued at start of fourth quarter . Britain's factories suffered a worse October than previously thought, according to a survey published a day before the Bank of England is expected to restate its intent to keep interest rates high, despite widespread signs of an economic slowdown.The final reading of the S&P Global/CIPS manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stood at 44.8, down from an early estimate of 45.2. The BoE is expected to keep Bank Rate at 5.25% on Thursday its second no-change decision after 14 consecutive increases. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2138(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2198(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2085(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2037 (Oct 4th low).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar steadied against Swiss franc on Wednesday ahead of a keenly awaited policy decision from the Federal Reserve later in the day. Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates steady.Comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be scrutinised to gauge where interest rates are headed and how long they will stay higher.Markets are pricing in a 29% chance of a 25 basis point hike in December and a 35% chance of a 25 bps hike in January, the CME FedWatch tool showed. The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against its major peers, inched 0.11% higher to 106.78. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9103(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9163 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9063 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9043 (14DMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged lower against yen on Wednesday after more pointed-than-normal remarks from Japan's top currency diplomat . Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda said on Wednesday authorities were on standby to respond to recent "one-sided, sharp" moves in the yen, escalating his warning against speculators as the currency tumbled below a crucial level.Markets have been on alert in recent months for possible yen-buying intervention by Japanese authorities, who are under pressure to combat a sustained depreciation of the currency as it pushes up import prices and households' cost of living.. Strong resistance can be seen at 151.73(23.6%fib A),an upside break can trigger rise towards 152.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen 150.67 (50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 150.37 (5DMA).
Equities Recap
Europe's benchmark index rose marginally on Wednesday, led by healthcare and retail stocks, with investors bracing for a policy decision by the Federal Reserve later in the day.
At (GMT 12:17),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.12 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.14 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.09 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold was flat on Wednesday ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, while all eyes will be on Chair Jerome Powell’s speech later for guidance on rate path.
Spot gold was little changed at $1,980.89 per ounce by 0947 GMT. U.S. gold futures slipped 0.2% to $1,989.80.
Oil prices rose more than 1% on Wednesday ahead of the keenly watched meeting of the U.S. central bank for clues on interest rate policy, while the conflict in the Middle East remains in focus.
Brent January crude futures were up about 1.1%, or 90 cents, to $85.92 a barrel by 1042 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures also gained 1.1%, or 90 cents, to $81.92 a barrel.