Posted at 31 October 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• US Employment Wages (QoQ) (Q3) 1.20%, 1.00% previous
• US Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q3) 1.1%, 1.0% forecast, 1.0% previous
• US Employment Benefits (QoQ) (Q3) 0.90%,0.90% previous
• Canada Aug GDP (MoM) 0.0%,0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous
•US Redbook (YoY) 5.3%,5.0% previous
•US Aug S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) 2.2%,1.6% forecast,0.1% previous
•US Aug S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) 0.4%,0.6% previous
•US Aug House Price Index (YoY) 5.6%,4.6% previous
•US Aug House Price Index 411.8,409.5 previous
•US Aug S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) 1.0%, 0.9% previous
•US Aug House Price Index (MoM) 0.6%,0.5%forecast,0.8% previous
•US Oct Chicago PMI 44.0,45.0 forecast,44.1 previous
•US Oct CB Consumer Confidence 102.6,100.0 forecast,103.0 previous
•US Oct Texas Services Sector Outlook -18.2,-8.6 previous
•US Oct Dallas Fed Services Revenues 0.7,8.7 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•00:30 Japan Oct Manufacturing PMI 48.5 forecast, 48.5 previous
•00:30 Australia Sep Private House Approvals 5.8% previous
•00:30 Australia Sep Building Approvals (MoM) 0.0% forecast,7.0% previous
•00:30 Australia Sep Building Approvals (YoY) -6.70% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro declined against dollar on Tuesday as investors assessed a slew of economic data. Euro zone inflation dropped to its lowest level in over two years in October, as energy prices fell and the high interest rates set by the European Central Bank dampened demand, a preliminary reading showed on Tuesday. German retail sales fell in September due to persistently high inflation. Preliminary data showed the French economy grew by 0.1% in the third quarter, with growth slowing from the previous quarter but staying just above zero thanks to household spending . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0660(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0700(Oct 24th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0595(11DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0555(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound dipped against dollar on Tuesday as traders looked ahead to the Bank of England's policy announcement on Thursday. Britain’s central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at a 15-year high of 5.25% when it announces policy this week, amid signs that the labour market is cooling even as it faces an inflation rate more than three times as high as its target. Money market traders are betting that the BoE is finished with rate increases in this tightening cycle, with rate cuts priced towards the end of next year. Most economists also said the BoE is likely to be done with tightening and will leave the Bank Rate at 5.25% later this week . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2218(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2282(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2121(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2099(23.6%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened to a one-year low against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday as the greenback notched broad-based gains and domestic data supported bets that the next move by the Bank of Canada would be a shift to interest rate cuts. The Canadian economy stalled in August and likely slipped into a shallow recession in the third quarter, data from Statistics Canada showed, a sign the BoC’s 10 interest rate hikes since last year are weighing on growth. Money markets see a roughly 90% chance the Canadian central bank will hold rates at a 22-year high of 5% in December.The loonie was trading 0.4% lower at 1.3880 to the greenback, or 72.04 U.S. cents, after touching its weakest intraday level since October 2022 at 1.3892. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3878 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3965 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3849 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3806(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against yen on Tuesday after a small step by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) towards ending years of monetary stimulus failed to appease some investors who had expected a bigger move. The BoJ maintained its -0.1% target for short-term interest rates and that for the 10-year government bond yield around 0% set under its yield curve control, but redefined the 1.0% limit as a loose "upper bound" rather than a rigid cap.Markets were now on the lookout for potential intervention in the Japanese yen, which could have knock-on implications for other currencies. Strong resistance can be seen at 151.73(38.2%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 152.93(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 150.81 (50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 150.83 (5DMA).
Equities Recap
European shares climbed on Tuesday, led by real estate and chemical stocks, with investors drawing comfort from a slew of corporate earnings beat.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.08 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.64percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.87 percent.
Wall Street's main indexes ended Tuesday's session with gains as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy update while they digested a mixed batch of earnings reports.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.38% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.65 % percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.48% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold eased on Tuesday but was set for its best month since March as the Israel-Hamas war sparked safe-haven flows, while focus shifted to this week’s U.S. central bank policy meeting.
Spot gold slipped 0.8% to $1,980.71 per ounce by 2:30 p.m. ET (1830 GMT) after spiking as high as $2,007.59 earlier in the session.U.S. gold futures settled down 0.6% at $1,994.30.
Oil prices eased on Tuesday as markets worried less about potential supply disruptions from the Middle East conflict and on data showing rising output from OPEC and the United States.
Brent crude futures for December delivery, settled 4 cents lower at $87.41 a barrel, ahead of their expiry later on Tuesday. The more heavily traded January contract fell $1.33, or 1.4%?to $85.02.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for December delivery fell $1.29, or 1.6%, to $81.02, while those for January delivery fell $1.18 to $80.50.