Posted at 31 October 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•French Sep Consumer Spending (MoM) 0.2%, 0.4%forecast,-0.5% previous
•French GDP (QoQ) (Q3)0.1%, 0.1% forecast,0.5% previous
•French GDP (YoY) (Q3) 0.7%,1.2% previous
•German Sep Import Price Index (MoM) 1.6%, 0.7% forecast,0.4% previous
•German Sep Import Price Index (YoY) -14.3%,-15.3% forecast,-16.4% previous
•German Sep Retail Sales (MoM) -0.8%, 0.5% forecast,-1.2% previous
•French Oct CPI (MoM) 0.1%,0.2% forecast,-0.5% previous
•French Oct French CPI (YoY) 4.0%,4.0% forecast,4.9% previous
•French HICP (MoM)0.2%,0.2% forecast,-0.6% previous
•EU GDP (QoQ) (Q3)-0.1%,0.0% forecast,0.2% previous
•EU GDP (YoY) (Q3)0.1%,0.2% forecast,0.5% previous
•Italian Oct CPI (MoM) -0.1%, 0.2% forecast,0.2% previous
•Greek Aug Retail Sales (YoY) -3.6%,-3.4% previous
•EU Oct CPI (YoY) 2.9%, 3.1% forecast,4.3% previous
•EU Oct Core CPI (YoY) 4.2%,4.2% forecast,4.5% previous
•EU Oct CPI (MoM)0.1%,0.3% forecast,0.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 12:30 US Employment Wages (QoQ) (Q3) 1.00% previous
• 12:30 US Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q3) 1.0% forecast, 1.0% previous
• 12:30 US Employment Benefits (QoQ) (Q3) 0.90% previous
• 12:30 Canada Aug GDP (MoM) 0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous
•12:55 US Redbook (YoY) 5.0% previous
•13:00 US Aug S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) 1.6% forecast,0.1% previous
•13:00 US Aug S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) 0.6% previous
•13:00 US Aug House Price Index (YoY) 4.6% previous
•13:00 US Aug House Price Index 409.5 previous
•13:00 US Aug S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) 0.9% previous
•13:00 US Aug House Price Index (MoM) 0.5% forecast,0.8% previous
•13:45 US Oct Chicago PMI 45.0 forecast,44.1 previous
•14:00 US Oct CB Consumer Confidence 100.0 forecast,103.0 previous
•14:00 US Oct Texas Services Sector Outlook -8.6 previous
•14:30 US Oct Dallas Fed Services Revenues 8.7 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•16:00 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
•16:30 ECB's De Guindos Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against dollar on Tuesday as investors prepared for central bank meetings this week with particular focus on the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy outlook.On the data front, Euro zone inflation dropped to its lowest level in over two years in October, as energy prices fell and the high interest rates set by the European Central Bank dampened demand, a preliminary reading showed on Tuesday. German retail sales fell in September due to persistently high inflation. Preliminary data showed the French economy grew by 0.1% in the third quarter, with growth slowing from the previous quarter but staying just above zero thanks to household spending . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0660(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0700(Oct 24th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0595(11DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0555(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound was strengthening against a weaker dollar on Tuesday but still on track for its third straight monthly drop as traders looked ahead to the Bank of England's policy announcement on Thursday. Britain’s central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at a 15-year high of 5.25% when it announces policy this week, amid signs that the labour market is cooling even as it faces an inflation rate more than three times as high as its target. Money market traders are betting that the BoE is finished with rate increases in this tightening cycle, with rate cuts priced towards the end of next year.By 1126 GMT, the pound was up 0.2% versus the dollar at $1.2190 but was still on track for a third consecutive monthly loss. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2218(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2282(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2164(11DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2099(23.6%fib).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar strengthened against Swiss franc on Tuesday as investors awaited U.S. central bank's policy meeting. Investors focus this week is on the U.S. Treasury’s refunding announcement and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision Wednesday, followed by U.S. monthly jobs report Friday. Worries about U.S. monetary policy staying restrictive for longer, uncertainties about China's economic recovery and geopolitical jitters have dominated investor sentiment in October. The dollar index was last down 0.18% at 105.97. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9048(38.2 %fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9083 (Oct 13th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8985(14DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8956(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against yen on Tuesday after a small step by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) towards ending years of monetary stimulus failed to appease some investors who had expected a bigger move. The BoJ maintained its -0.1% target for short-term interest rates and that for the 10-year government bond yield around 0% set under its yield curve control, but redefined the 1.0% limit as a loose "upper bound" rather than a rigid cap.Markets were now on the lookout for potential intervention in the Japanese yen, which could have knock-on implications for other currencies. Strong resistance can be seen at 149.96(5DMA),an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.38(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.23 (38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 148.43 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares climbed on Tuesday, led by real estate and chemical stocks, with investors drawing comfort from a slew of corporate earnings beat, while focusing on major economic data releases throughout the day.
At (GMT 12:17),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.49 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.63 percent, France’s CAC was up by 1.05 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold steadied on Tuesday on caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting this week, but held on track for its biggest monthly rise since November last year as the Israel-Hamas war boosted safe-haven bets.
Spot gold was unchanged at $1,996.11 per ounce by 0910 GMT, having spiked as high as $2,009.29 on Friday. U.S. gold futures were also steady at $2,005.80.
Oil prices edged up on Tuesday helped by a drop in euro zone inflation but were pinned below $90 a barrel on weak Chinese economic data and as the conflict in the Middle East remained contained.
December Brent crude futures , were 85 cents, or 0.97%, higher at $88.30 a barrel by 1136 GMT ahead of their expiry later on Tuesday.
The more heavily traded January contract climbed 59 cents, or 0.68%?to $86.94. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 61 cents, or 0.74%, to $82.92.