Posted at 31 October 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German Oct CPI (MoM) 3.0%, 0.2% forecast,0.3% previous
•French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.797%,3.823% previous
• French 3-Month BTF Auction3.745%, 3.788% previous
•French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.711%,3.770% previous
• US Oct Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index-19.2 , -18.1 previous
• US 3-Month Bill Auction5.325% , 5.310% previous
•US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.320%,5.325% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•00:30 Australia Sep Private Sector Credit (MoM) 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
•00:30 Australia Sep Housing Credit 0.3% previous
•01:30 China Oct Chinese Composite PMI 52.0 previous
•01:30 China Oct Non-Manufacturing PMI 51.8 forecast,51.7 previous
•01:30 China Oct Manufacturing PMI 50.2 forecast,50.2 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against dollar on Monday as investors focused on the outlook for interest rates ahead of a busy week of central bank meetings and economic data.Investors are waiting for the outcome of meetings at the Bank of Japan (BOJ) on Tuesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the Bank of England (BoE) on Thursday, as well as Chinese manufacturing data on Tuesday and key U.S. jobs data on Friday, all of which will be scrutinised for any clues that central banks have raised interest rates sufficiently to combat inflation and can look towards easing monetary policy again . The dollar index fell 0.469%, with the euro up 0.51% at $1.0618. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0597(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0612 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0572(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0546(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling was broadly flat against the dollar on Monday as traders looked ahead to a Bank of England (BoE) meeting on Thursday where rates are expected to be held and the outlook is likely to be more in focus after a run of weak UK economic data. The British pound has largely been on the back foot in currency markets in recent weeks as risk appetite has faded, weighed by jitters in the stock market and war in the Middle East. BoE data on Monday showed British lenders in September approved the lowest number of home loans since January, adding to signs of a sluggish property market.Sterling was last trading flat on the dollar at $1.21250. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2157(11DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2191(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2085(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2037 (Oct 4th low).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Monday as investors reversed some of the safe-haven buying ahead of last weekend and focused on major central bank meetings this week. Oil settled 3.8% lower at $82.31 a barrel as fears eased that the Israel-Hamas war would disrupt supply from the region, while the U.S. dollar fell after benefiting on Friday from safe-haven flows and bets that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer. The loonie was trading 0.3% higher at 1.3825 to the greenback , after moving in a range of 1.3814 to 1.3877. On Friday, the currency touched its weakest in one year at 1.3880.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2141 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2229 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2075 (21DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2039 (23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged lower against yen on Monday after a report that the Bank of Japan is considering tweaking its yield curve control policy. The Nikkei report showed that the BOJ is considering adjusting its yield curve control policy to allow the 10-year Japanese government bond yield to rise above 1%, pushed the yen to 148.81 per dollar, its strongest level since Oct. 17. he greenback was last down 0.4% at 149.05 yen . The BOJ kicked off its two-day monetary policy meeting Monday. The recent surge in global interest rates has heightened pressure on the BOJ to change its bond yield control policy. Strong resistance can be seen at 149.96(5DMA),an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.38(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.00(Psychological level )a break below could take the pair towards 148.43 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares began the week on a strong footing, boosted by a drop in bond yields with investors assessing key inflation data, while Siemens Energy shares extended their recovery on continued talks over project-related guarantees.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.50 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.20 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.42 percent.
Wall Street rallied on Monday, kicking off what promises to be a hectic week that includes a heavy earnings docket, economic data and the Federal Reserve's two-day monetary policy meeting.
Dow Jones closed up by 1.58% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 1.20% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 1.16% percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields pared gains on Monday, with longer-dated debt briefly edging lower, after the Treasury Department said it expects to borrow $76 billion less this quarter than anticipated in the third quarter on expectations of higher revenue receipts.
Yields on 10-year Treasury notes were last up 4.1 basis points at 4.886%, after reaching 4.922% earlier in the day. Last week the benchmark note hit a 16-year high of 5.021%.
The two-year note's yield, which typically reflects interest rate expectations, rose 2.5 basis points to 5.037%.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices hovered near the key psychological $2,000 level on Monday, supported by safe-haven demand amid the Middle East conflict, while market participants looked ahead to this week’s U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting.
Spot gold was down 0.4% at $1,998.47 per ounce by 2:25 p.m. ET (1825 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled 0.4% higher at $2,005.60.
Oil slipped more than 3% on Monday as fears eased that the Israel-Hamas war would disrupt supply from the region, and as investors grew cautious ahead of this week's U.S. Federal Reserve meeting.
Brent crude futures settled at $87.45 a barrel, down $3.03, or 3.35%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude finished at $82.31 a barrel, down $3.23, or 3.78%.