Posted at 30 October 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Spanish Oct CPI (MoM) 0.3%, 0.6% forecast, 0.2% previous
•Spanish Oct CPI (YoY) 3.5%,3.8% forecast, 3.5% previous
•German GDP (YoY) (Q3)-0.3%, -0.7% forecast,-0.2% previous
•German GDP (QoQ) (Q3)-0.1%, -0.3% forecast,0.0% previous
•EU CPI (MoM) 0.0%, 0.2% previous
•EU CPI (YoY) 3.6%, 4.7% previous
•EU Oct CPI (YoY) 4.4% , 5.1% previous
•UK Sep Mortgage Approvals 43.33K, 45.00K forecast, 45.35K previous
•UK Sep BoE Consumer Credit 1.391B, 1.400B forecast, 1.644B previous
•EU Oct CPI (MoM) 0.1% forecast, 0.3% previous
•EU Oct CPI (YoY) 4.5% forecast, 5.4% previous
•EU Oct Services Sentiment 4.5, 3.4 forecast, 4.0 previous
•EU Oct Industrial Sentiment -9.3, -9.5 forecast,-9.0 previous
•EU Oct Business Climate -0.33, -0.36 previous
•EU Oct Business and Consumer Survey 93.3,93.0 forecast,93.3 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:00 German Oct CPI (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.3% previous
•13:00 German CPI (YoY) 4.0% forecast, 4.5% previous
•13:00 German Oct HICP (MoM) 0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
•13:55 French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.823% previous
•13:55 French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.788% previous
•13:55 French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.770% previous
•14:30 US Oct Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index -18.1 previous
•15:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.310% previous
•15:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.325% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•19:30 Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks
•19:30 Canada BoC Senior Deputy Governor Rogers Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against dollar on Monday as investors focused on the outlook for interest rates ahead of a busy week of central bank meetings and economic data.Investors are waiting for the outcome of meetings at the Bank of Japan (BOJ) on Tuesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the Bank of England (BoE) on Thursday, as well as Chinese manufacturing data on Tuesday and key U.S. jobs data on Friday, all of which will be scrutinised for any clues that central banks have raised interest rates sufficiently to combat inflation and can look towards easing monetary policy again . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0597(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0612 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0572(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0546(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling was broadly flat against the dollar on Monday as traders looked ahead to a Bank of England (BoE) meeting on Thursday where rates are expected to be held and the outlook is likely to be more in focus after a run of weak UK economic data. The British pound has largely been on the back foot in currency markets in recent weeks as risk appetite has faded, weighed by jitters in the stock market and war in the Middle East. BoE data on Monday showed British lenders in September approved the lowest number of home loans since January, adding to signs of a sluggish property market.Sterling was last trading flat on the dollar at $1.21250. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2157(11DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2191(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2085(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2037 (Oct 4th low).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar strengthened against Swiss franc on Monday buoyed by safe-haven demand from an escalating Middle East conflict, while investors were on a cautious watch ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy meeting later this week. Market participants now look forward to the U.S. central bank’s policy decision due on Wednesday. While the Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, the focus will be on Chair Jerome Powell’s commentary. U.S. nonfarm data on Friday will also be important for expectations of the Fed's rate hike path. The U.S. dollar index was steady, at around 106.650 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9048(38.2 %fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9083 (Oct 13th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8985(14DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8956(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar steadied against yen on Monday as traders looked ahead to several major central bank meetings and a slew of economic data releases this week.The Bank of Japan kicks off its two-day monetary policy meeting on Monday, leading a week which will also see interest rate decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.A PMI data deluge, inflation figures in the euro zone and U.S. nonfarm payrolls at the end of the week will also be competing for the top of traders ' minds. The yen was little changed at 149.63 per dollar, getting a slight reprieve after having struck a one-year trough of 150.78 per dollar last week. Strong resistance can be seen at 149.96(5DMA),an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.38(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.23 (38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 148.43 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares opened the week on a strong footing, boosted by a drop in bond yields with investors assessing key inflation data, while Siemens Energy shares extended recovery on continued talks over project-related guarantees.
At (GMT 12:17),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.71percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.51 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.63 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices slipped from the key $2,000 level on Monday, as investors positioned cautiously ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy meeting this week, while safe-haven demand due to the Middle East conflict provided a floor.
Spot gold was down 0.6% at $1,993.71 per ounce by 0936 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $2,003.50.
Oil slipped more than 1% on Monday as concern eased about the Israel-Hamas war affecting supply from the region and as investors adopted caution ahead of this week's U.S. Federal Reserve meeting and other indications of global economic health.
Brent crude futures dropped $1.39, or 1.5%, to $89.09 a barrel by 0911 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down $1.63, or 1.9%, at $83.91.