Posted at 28 October 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US Sep Personal Income (MoM) 0.3%, 0.4% forecast, 0.4% previous
•Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) 0.0%, 2.3% previous
•US Sep Core PCE Price Index (YoY) 3.7%,3.7%forecast,3.9% previous
•US Sep Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.1% previous
•US Sep Real Personal Consumption (MoM) 0.4%,0.1% previous
•US Sep PCE Price index (YoY) 3.4%,3.4% forecast, 3.5% previous
•US Sep Personal Spending (MoM) 0.7%, 0.5% forecast,0.4% previous
•US Oct Michigan Consumer Sentiment 63.8, 63.0 forecast, 68.1 previous
•US Oct Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations 4.2%,3.8% forecast, 3.2% previous
•US Oct Michigan Consumer Expectations 59.3, 60.7 forecast,66.0 previous
•US Oct Michigan Current Conditions 70.6, 66.7 forecast, 71.4 previous
•US Oct Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 3.0%, 3.0% forecast, 2.8% previous
•US Sep Dallas Fed PCE 4.00%, 2.70% previous
•Canada Aug Budget Balance (YoY) -4.29B, -1.24B previous
•Canada Aug Budget Balance-4.29B, -4.86B previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 504, 502 previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 625, 624 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•No data ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
• No significant events
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against dollar on Friday after the European Central Bank reiterated policy rates would stay at the current levels for an extended period. The ECB left rates unchanged as expected on Thursday and insisted that rising market talk of rate cuts was premature. Money markets are pricing almost zero chance for an additional hike by year-end and reductions in policy rates starting from June next year. The ECB confirmed on Thursday it would continue reinvestments from the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) until the end of 2024. However, President Lagarde said the council had yet to discuss the issue. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0570(14DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0606 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0512(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0500(Psychological level).
GBP/USD: Sterling was headed for weekly declines against the dollar on Friday after struggling amid a nervous tone in markets that has boosted the dollar, as eyes start to turn to the Bank of England’s meeting next week. Tuesday’s jobs data that showed the labour market has lost some of its inflationary heat. That sent the pound lower as it underscored market expectations that the BoE will keep rates on hold at its meeting next week. The pound was last down a whisker on the day against the dollar at $1.2117, but set for a weekly fall of 0.37%, and heading for a monthly drop of around 0.7% due to earlier declines. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2157(11DMA ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2191(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2085(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2037 (Oct 4th low).
USD/CAD Canadian dollar wakened against its U.S. counterpart on Friday after data showed U.S. inflation rose largely in line with expectations. The Commerce Department's hotly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report showed inflation gradually cooling down as expected, getting closer to the Federal Reserve's 2% annual target while consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of the U.S. economy, posted a robust upside surprise . Oil prices rose as investors priced in fears of an escalation of conflict in the Middle East which could disrupt oil supplies.. loonie was trading 0.3% lower at C$1.3878 to the greenback, or 72.06 U.S. cents, after trading in a range of 1.3797 to 1.3879. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3873 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3900 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3783(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3750(9 DMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped on Friday as yen strengthened ahead of the Bank of Japan's policy meeting next week. The yen continued to wobble around 150 , a level some have seen as a potential trigger for intervention by Japanese authorities.Japan will continue to respond to the currency market with a strong sense of urgency," Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki told reporters on Friday. The BOJ meets next week and speculation is mounting that the central bank could change its policy on bond-yield control. An increase to an existing limit on yields set just three months ago has been discussed as a possibility. Dollar was 0.6 % lower at 149.51 yen . Strong resistance can be seen at 150.55(23.6%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.72(Oct 26th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.30 (21DMA)a break below could take the pair towards 149.28 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares fell to near seven-month lows on Friday and clocked a second week of losses, with France's blue-chip index leading the way down after Sanofi scrapped its 2025 profit forecast.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.86 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.30 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 1.28 percent.
U.S. stocks closed mostly lower on Friday, losing momentum as investors digested a hectic week of mixed earnings, and economic data that seemed to support the "higher for longer" interest rate scenario.
Dow Jones closed down by 1.12% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.48% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.38% percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields rose on Friday following a slew of economic data, as traders weighed their impact on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path.
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was up 0.2 basis point to 4.847%. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was up 3 basis points to 5.018%.
Commodities Recap
Gold vaulted over $2,000 on its way to a third straight weekly gain on Friday, as an escalation in the Israel-Hamas conflict fuelled safe-haven buying, while investors awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting due next week.
Spot gold jumped 1.2% to its highest since mid-May at $2,009.19 per ounce by 3:10 p.m. EDT (1910 GMT) and gained 1.4% for the week. U.S. gold futures settled 0.1% higher at $1,998.50.
Oil prices climbed about 3% to a one-week high on Friday on worries that tensions in Israel and Gaza could spread into a wider conflict that could disrupt global crude supplies.
Brent futures rose $2.55, or 2.9%, to settle at $90.48 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $2.33, or 2.8%, to settle at $85.54.