Posted at 27 October 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•French Oct Consumer Confidence 84, 83 forecast, 83 previous
•Spanish GDP (QoQ) (Q3)0.3%, 0.2% forecast, 0.5% previous
•Spanish GDP (YoY) (Q3) 1.8%, 1.6% forecast, 2.2% previous
•Italian Aug Industrial Sales (YoY) -5.00%, -1.60% previous
•Irish Sep Retail Sales (YoY) 2.5%, 3.6% previous
•Irish HICP (MoM) 0.2% , 0.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Sep Personal Income (MoM) 0.4% forecast, 0.4% previous
•12:30 Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) 2.3% previous
•12:30 US Sep Core PCE Price Index (YoY) 3.7% forecast,3.9% previous
•12:30 US Sep Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.3% forecast, 0.1% previous
•12:30 US Sep PCE price index (MoM) 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
•12:30 US Sep Real Personal Consumption (MoM) 0.1% previous
•12:30 US Sep PCE Price index (YoY) 3.4% forecast, 3.5% previous
•12:30 US Sep Personal Spending (MoM) 0.5% forecast,0.4% previous
•14:00 US Oct Michigan Consumer Sentiment 63.0 forecast, 68.1 previous
•14:00 US Oct Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations 3.8% forecast, 3.2% previous
•14:00 US Oct Michigan Consumer Expectations 60.7 forecast,66.0 previous
•14:00 US Oct Michigan Current Conditions 66.7 forecast, 71.4 previous
•14:00 US Oct Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 3.0% forecast, 2.8% previous
•14:00 US Sep Dallas Fed PCE 2.70% previous
•15:00 Canada Aug Budget Balance (YoY) -1.24B previous
•15:00 Canada Aug Budget Balance -4.86B previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 502 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 624 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•13:00 US Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against dollar on Friday after the European Central Bank reiterated policy rates would stay at the current levels for an extended period. The ECB left rates unchanged as expected on Thursday and insisted that rising market talk of rate cuts was premature. Money markets are pricing almost zero chance for an additional hike by year-end and reductions in policy rates starting from June next year. The ECB confirmed on Thursday it would continue reinvestments from the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) until the end of 2024. However, President Lagarde said the council had yet to discuss the issue . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0570(14DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0606 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0512(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0500(Psychological level).
GBP/USD: Sterling was headed for weekly declines against the dollar on Friday after struggling amid a nervous tone in markets that has boosted the dollar, as eyes start to turn to the Bank of England’s meeting next week. Tuesday’s jobs data that showed the labour market has lost some of its inflationary heat. That sent the pound lower as it underscored market expectations that the BoE will keep rates on hold at its meeting next week. The pound was last down a whisker on the day against the dollar at $1.2120, but set for a weekly fall of 0.37%, and heading for a monthly drop of around 0.7% due to earlier declines. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2157(11DMA ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2191(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2085(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2037 (Oct 4th low).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar strengthened against Swiss franc on Friday after solid U.S. growth figures argued for interest rates to remain high for longer. The U.S. dollar index steadied at 106.52, having hit a three-week high of 106.89 in the previous session, and was on track for a weekly gain of about 0.35%. U.S. economy grew almost 5% in the third quarter, again defying dire warnings of a recession, as higher wages from a tight labor market helped to fuel consumer spending and businesses restocked at a brisk clip to meet the strong demand. Investor focus is also on the U.S. personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index due later in the day for cues on what to expect from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9030(38.2 %fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9032 (Oct 13th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8985(14DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8956(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar steadied on Friday as yen struggled around the 150 level ahead of the Bank of Japan's policy meeting next week. The yen continued to wobble on the weaker side of 150 per dollar, a level some have seen as a potential trigger for intervention by Japanese authorities.Japan will continue to respond to the currency market "with a strong sense of urgency," Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki told reporters on Friday. The BOJ meets next week and speculation is mounting that the central bank could change its policy on bond-yield control. An increase to an existing limit on yields set just three months ago has been discussed as a possibility. Strong resistance can be seen at 150.55(23.6%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.72(Oct 26th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.85 (14DMA)a break below could take the pair towards 149.28 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares were muted on Friday, with France's blue-chip index lagging peers following a dour forecast from Sanofi, while gains in energy shares on higher crude prices helped keep declines in check.
At (GMT 11:55),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.33 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.14 percent, France’s CAC was down by 1.17 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were set to mark their third straight weekly rise on Friday as a risk averse mood due to the ongoing Middle East conflict pushed investors to the safety of bullion, while investors also awaited key U.S. consumption figures.
Spot gold was steady at $1,985.30 per ounce by 0950 GMT. U.S. gold futures fell 0.1% to $1,996.20.
Oil prices rose by more than $2 a barrel on Friday as investors priced in fears of an escalation of conflict in the Middle East which could disrupt oil supplies, after reports that the U.S military had struck Iranian targets in Syria.
Brent crude futures for December rose $2.03, or 2.3%, to $89.96 a barrel by 1011 GMT. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate contract for December climbed $1.89, or 2.3%, to $85.1 a barrel.