Posted at 26 October 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•ECB expected to hold rates at 1215 GMT
• Sweden Sep M3 Money Supply 4,731.8B, 4,742.2B previous
• Sweden Sep Household Lending Growth (YoY) 0.7%, 0.7% previous
• Sweden Sep Trade Balance 2.20B, -8.40B previous
• Sweden Oct Consumer Confidence 70.1,69.1 previous
•UK Oct CBI Distributive Trades Survey -36,-16 forecast,-14 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:15 EU Oct Deposit Facility Rate 4.00% forecast,4.00% previous
•12:15 EU Oct ECB Interest Rate Decision 4.50% forecast,4.50% previous
•12:15 EU ECB Marginal Lending Facility 4.75% previous
•12:30 US Sep Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.4% previous
•12:30 US Sep Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 205.75K previous
•12:30 US Sep Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) -0.7% previous
•12:30 US Sep Goods Trade Balance -85.50B forecast,-84.64B previous
•12:30 Canada Aug Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) 4.3 previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 208K forecast,198K previous
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims1,740K forecast,1,734K previous
•12:30 Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 0.7% previous
•12:30 US Wholesale Inventories (MoM)0.1% forecast,-0.1% previous
•12:30 US Sep Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) 0.1% forecast,0.9% previous
•12:30 US Sep Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 1.7% forecast,0.2% previous
•12:30 US Sep GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q3)2.5% forecast,1.7% previous
•12:30 US PCE Prices (Q3)2.5% previous
•12:30 US GDP Sales (Q3) 4.5% forecast,2.1% previous
•12:30 US GDP (QoQ) (Q3)4.3% forecast,2.1% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release (GMT)
•12:15 ECB Monetary Policy Statement
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against dollar on Thursday as investors awaited the European Central Bank's policy decision. Macroeconomic concerns continued to weigh on the outlook for euro after a surprise downturn this month in euro zone business activity data. The European Central Bank (ECB) will likely keep interest rates unchanged at a record high when it meets later on Thursday, snapping a 15-month streak of hikes, but may discuss a quicker reduction of its oversized portfolio of government debt as it battles still excessive inflation. The single currency was last down 0.2% at $1.0545. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0573(14DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0606 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0527(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0500(Psychological level).
GBP/USD: Sterling sank to a three-week low on Thursday after a slew of economic market data this week affirmed the view that the Bank of England (BoE) will likely hold rates steady at its policy meeting next week. Data on Tuesday showed a labour market that was loosening, while the flash reading of the S&P Global UK Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the services sector fell in October to 49.2, the lowest reading since January. Although inflation unexpectedly held steady at 6.7% in September, the highest of any major advanced economy, the BoE is expected to leave rates at 5.25% on Nov. 2, according to the vast majority of economists polled. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2169(38.2%fib ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2185(14DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2065(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2037 (Oct 4th low).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar strengthened against Swiss franc on Thursday as greenback drew support ahead of release of U.S. GDP .The dollar was last up 0.31% against the Swiss franc at 0.8959 francs. U.S. third quarter GDP, released later today, is unlikely to provide help for the bond market as it is expected to show the U.S. economy grew at its fastest quarterly pace in two years, and so offer nothing to derail expectations the Fed will keep rates high for longer.Friday's personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is also top of mind, as is Thursday's European Central Bank meeting, at which they are expected to snap a 15-month streak of hikes, but keep rates at record highs. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9010(38.2 %fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9010 (Oct 16th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8972(50DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8935(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar rose past 150.50 level against the yen on Thursday as dollar attracted bids ahead of US GDP data. Dollar initially dipped to 149.865 before rebounding to its current level at 150.50, but analysts said this was unlikely to be intervention. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki earlier warned traders against selling the yen again, saying authorities were closely watching moves.Suzuki made no direct comment about the potential for intervention.A recent surge in global interest rates is heightening pressure on the Bank of Japan to change its bond yield control next week.Japan's low yields have made the currency an easy target for short-sellers and funding trades, with the widening gap in the interest rates between Japan and the United States leading to persistent weakness in the yen. Strong resistance can be seen at 150.83(Daily high),an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.01(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.85 (11DMA)a break below could take the pair towards 149.57 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares dropped on Thursday, hit by a rise in U.S. Treasury yields and a slew of weak earnings reports including from Standard Chartered in the run up to the European Central Bank's policy decision later in the day.
At (GMT 11:42),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.93 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 1.49 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.92 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold climbed back towards last week’s five-month peak on Thursday, undeterred by a stronger U.S. dollar and bond yields, as investors looked to the safe-haven asset amid the Middle-East conflict.
Spot gold rose 0.5% to $1,989.50 per ounce by 0948 GMT, trading just shy of its highest level since May 16 hit on Friday.U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $2,000.50.
Oil prices fell on Thursday after a rise in U.S. crude stockpiles and a climb in the dollar index, giving up some ground gained a day earlier when prices jumped on fears of a broader conflict in the Middle East.
Brent crude futures declined by 80 cents, or 0.9%, to $89.33 a barrel at 1010 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures eased 91 cents, or 1.1%, to $84.48 a barrel.