News

Europe Roundup: Sterling weakens as soft data supports BoE rate view , European shares gains, Gold stuck in tight range , Oil steadies as Middle East war worries counter demand fears-October 25th,2023

Posted at 25 October 2023 / Categories Market Roundups


Market Roundup

•EU Private Sector Loans (YoY)0.8%,1.0% forecast,1.0% previous

•German Oct Current Assessment 89.2,88.5 forecast,88.7 previous

•EU Sep Loans to Non Financial Corporations  0.2%,   0.6% previous

•EU Sep M3 Money Supply (YoY)  -1.2%  ,-1.7% forecast,-1.3% previous

•Swiss Oct ZEW Expectations  -37.8, -27.6 previous

•German Oct Ifo Business Climate Index 86.9, 85.9 forecast,85.7 previous

•German Oct Business Expectations 84.7,83.3 forecast,82.9 previous

Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)

•13:00   EU Oct Belgium NBB Business Climate  -14.7 forecast, -14.4 previous

•14:00 US Sep New Home Sales (MoM) -8.7% previous

•14:00 US Sep  New Home Sales  680K forecast  ,675K previous

•14:30   US  Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -0.758M previous

•14:30   US  Gasoline Inventories -0.897M forecast, -2.371M previous

•14:30   US  Crude Oil Inventories 0.239M forecast,-4.491M previous

Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)

•14:00   Canada BoC Monetary Policy Report      

•14:00   Canada BoC Rate Statement

•15:00   Canada BOC Press Conference

•15:00   Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks           

•15:00   Canada BoC Senior Deputy Governor Rogers Speaks      

•17:00   EU ECB President Lagarde Speaks

•20:35   US Fed Chair Powell Speaks

Currency Forecast

EUR/USD: The euro dipped against dollar on Wednesday on the back of a darkening growth outlook in the Eurozone bloc. The euro zone composite PMI fell deeper into contractionary territory to its lowest in three years. Growth indicators from industrial output data to PMI and sentiment readings in recent weeks are all suggesting that the euro zone's economy is now either stagnating or even shrinking as weak external demand, consumer caution and high interest rates take their toll.Bank lending across the euro zone came to a near standstill last month, European Central Bank data showed on Wednesday, providing further evidence that the 20-nation bloc was skirting a recession.  . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0639(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0686 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at  1.0576(11DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0537(61.8%fib).

GBP/USD: The British pound extended the previous day’s losses on Wednesday after gloomy economic data affirmed the view that the Bank of England will likely hold rates steady when it announces its policy decision next week. Data on Tuesday showed a labour market that was loosening, while the flash reading of the S&P Global UK Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the services sector fell in October to 49.2, the lowest reading since January and below the 50 threshold that separates growth from contraction. By 0916 GMT, the pound was down 0.2% against the dollar to $1.2132. On Tuesday it fell 0.7%, its biggest one-day drop in more than a week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2181(11DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2201(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2107(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2037 (Oct 4th low). 

 USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar strengthened against Swiss franc on Wednesday as greenback drew support from yet another resilient U.S. economic data reading. S&P Global's flash U.S. Composite Purchasing Managers Index rose to its highest level since July, potentially giving the U.S. Federal Reserve more room to keep interest rates high. Market focus now shifts to the U.S. third-quarter GDP figures due on Thursday and the U.S. PCE price index on Friday. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of six peers, was up 0.2% at at 106.42, having climbed 0.65% on Tuesday .The dollar was last up 0.31% against the Swiss franc at 0.8959 francs. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8961(38.2 %fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8976(11DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8889(50 %fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8811(61.8%fib).

USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against   the yen on Wednesday as but held below 150.00 level as traders were on alert for any signs of intervention by Japanese authorities. The buoyant U.S. dollar kept the yen pinned near the closely watched 150 threshold, with the Japanese currency last at 149.9 per dollar, keeping traders on their toes for any signs of intervention by Japanese authorities.Pressure is mounting on the Bank of Japan to change its bond yield control as global interest rates rise. Market participant’s fear that Japanese authorities will step in to support the currency has meant the dollar's brief recent moves past 150 have not been sustained. Strong resistance can be seen at 149.91(Daily high),an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.13(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.69 (9DMA)a break below could take the pair towards 149.33  (Oct 3rd high).

Equities Recap

European sharesinitially fell on Wednesday but recovered as investors   digested a slew of other mixed earnings reports amid worries about slowing growth in the euro zone..

At (GMT 12:20 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.34 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.16 percent, France’s CAC   was up  by 0.10  percent.

Commodities Recap

Oil benchmark Brent held above $88 on Wednesday as concerns about war escalating in the Middle East offset demand worries stemming from gloomy economic prospects in Europe.

Brent crude futures were up 11 cents to $88.18 a barrel at 0948 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures slipped 5 cents to $83.69 a barrel.

Gold prices were stuck in a narrow $10 trading range on Wednesday as investors held back from making big bets ahead of U.S. economic data this week that could shed more light on the Federal Reserve’s interest rates outlook.

Spot gold was flat at $1,970.13 per ounce by 0948 GMT, having declined in the previous two sessions and trading below a five-month high hit last week.U.S. gold futures eased 0.3% to $1,981.10.


Simply the best forex trading platform. Mobile platform also available.

download mt4

Start trading forex in 5 minutes. Get 20% deposit bonus.

Open Live Account

Free $10000 forex virtual trading account. Practice makes perfect.

Open Demo Account