Posted at 24 October 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Euro zone PMI hits lowest in nearly three years
•US Q3 GDP due on Thursday, PCE price index on Friday
•Platinum down more than 1%
•UK Sep Claimant Count Change 20.4K, 2.3K forecast, 0.9K previous
• German GfK Nov Consumer Climate -28.1,-26.6 forecast,-26.5 previous
•UK Aug Unemployment Rate 4.2%, 4.3% forecast,4.3% previous
•UK Aug Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) -82K,-198K forecast,-207K previous
• French Oct Manufacturing PMI 42.6,44.4 forecast, 44.2 previous
• French Oct Services PMI 46.1,44.6 forecast,44.4 previous
• French Oct S&P Global Composite PMI 45.3,44.4 forecast,44.1 previous
• German Oct Manufacturing PMI 40.7, 40.0 forecast,39.6 previous
• German Oct Composite PMI 45.8,46.7 forecast,46.4 previous
•German Oct Services PMI 48.0, 50.0 forecast, 50.3 previous
•EU Oct Manufacturing PMI 43.0 ,43.7 forecast, 43.4 previous
•EU Oct Services PMI 47.8,48.7 forecast,48.7 previous
•EU Oct S&P Global Composite PMI 46.5, 47.4 forecast,47.2 previous
•UK Labour Productivity (Q2) 0.3%,0.7% forecast, -1.4% previous
•UK Manufacturing PMI 45.2,44.7 forecast,44.3 previous
•UK Services PMI 49.2, 49.3 forecast, 49.3 previous
•UK Composite PMI 48.6, 48.7 forecast, 48.5 previous
Looking ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 Canada New Housing Price Index (MoM) 0.1% forecast,0.1% previous
•12:55 US Redbook (YoY) 4.6% previous
•13:45 US Oct S&P Global Composite PMI 50.2 previous
•13:45 US Oct Services PMI 49.8 forecast, 50.1 previous
•13:45 US Oct Manufacturing PMI 49.5 forecast, 49.8 previous
•14:00 US Oct Richmond Services Index 4 previous
•14:00 US Oct Richmond Manufacturing Index 3 forecast, 5 previous
•14:00 US Oct Richmond Manufacturing Shipments 7 previous
•17:00 US 2-Year Note Auction 5.085% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
• 12:30 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against dollar on Tuesday after PMI data in Germany and France provided some recessionary signals that might challenge expectations that interest rates will stay at high levels for an extended period. The mood in France’s services sector improved more than expected in October, although it remained negative overall.The HCOB German Flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, fell to 45.8 in October from September's 46.4, below the 46.7 forecast by economists. The HCOB France flash purchasing managers index (PMI) for the services sector, compiled by S&P Global, came in at 46.1 points, up from a final 44.4 in September . The euro last 0.43% lower at $1.0624 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0639(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0686 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0604(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0563(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged lower on Tuesday after showed the UK labour market lost more steam in August. Britain’s unemployment rate held steady at 4.2% under a new calculation that accounts for dwindling survey responses from households, while the number of employed people fell by 82,000 and the number unemployed rose by 74,000. A separate survey showed Britain’s businesses reported another decline in activity this month and cost pressures have cooled further, underlining the risk of recession ahead of the Bank of England’s interest rate decision next week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2267(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2350(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2185(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2163 (23.6%fib).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar edged higher against Swiss franc on Tuesday as investors looked forward slew of economic data that will provide clues to the next steps from the U.S. Federal Reserve.. The U.S. Commerce Department on Thursday will announce third-quarter gross domestic product, which is seen accelerating to 4.3%. Its wide-ranging Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, due on Friday, is expected to show annual headline and core inflation cooling down to 3.4% and 3.7%, respectively. The dollar was last up 0.29% against the Swiss franc at 0.8935 francs. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8933(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8960(38.2 %fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8884(38.2 %fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8809 (61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar held steady against the yen on Tuesday , but was not too far away from 150 level as traders nervous about possible government intervention to prop up the Japanese currency. Investors were betting the BOJ would defend the 150 level, even as others saw rising U.S. yields as a reason to keep pushing the dollar up. The surge in U.S. Treasury yields since mid-July has boosted the U.S. dollar's appeal relative to other currencies and helped lift the U.S. dollar index more than 6%, but the index has made little headway since early October. The dollar yen last traded at 149.62 per Japanese yen, after rising as high as 150.14, a level last seen on Oct. 3. Traders are on watch for several events this week, including a European Central Bank meeting, and the release of U.S. GDP data and the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. Strong resistance can be seen at 148.81(Daily high),an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.13(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.69 (9DMA)a break below could take the pair towards 149.33 (Oct 3rd high).
Equities Recap
European shares reversed early gains on Tuesday as a drop in shares of banks and downbeat economic data from the region outweighed support from robust earnings from companies such as luxury giant Hermes.
At (GMT 12:20 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.05 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.15 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.54 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices eased on Tuesday, hurt by higher dollar and bond yields ahead of more U.S. economic data that could influence Federal Reserve's outlook on interest rates.
Spot gold was down 0.3% at $1,967.20 per ounce by 0946 GMT. U.S. gold futures fell 0.5% to $1,978.70.
Oil prices were stable on Tuesday following the previous session's dip after a flurry of economic data from Germany, the wider euro zone and Britain sketched a bearish picture which could weigh on oil demand.
Brent crude futures were up 41 cents, or 0.5%, at $90.24 a barrel by 1122 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 38 cents, or 0.4%, to $85.87 a barrel.