Posted at 23 October 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.770% ,3.776% previous
• French 3-Months BTF Auction 3.788% ,3.788% previous
• French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.823%, 3.816% previous
• EU Oct Consumer Confidence -17.9, -18.3 forecast ,-17.8 previous
• US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.310% ,5.340% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•00:30 Japan Services PMI 53.8 previous
•00:30 Japan Oct Manufacturing PMI 48.9 forecast ,48.5 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No significant events ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against dollar on Monday as investors awaited for several events this week, including a European Central Bank meeting, and the release of U.S. GDP data and the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. Market participants will be keenly awaiting any indications from ECB President Christine Lagarde regarding an acceleration in QT or plans for further liquidity absorption. Poll shows ECB is done with raising rates it won't begin easing until at least July 2024. It raised its key interest rates by 25 basis points in September. The euro rose a fraction to $1.0607. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0686(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0720 (19th Sep high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0636(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0610(5DMA).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged higher on Monday as traders positioned for further developments on the Middle East conflict and U.K. economic data. Sterling might catch a bid if October's UK flash services PMI springs an upside surprise and comes in at or above 50 for the first time since July on Tuesday or weaken if it undershoots the 49.5 consensus forecast. A print of 50 or above, which marks growth in activity, would be a boost for hawks advocating another Bank of England interest rate rise, as the services sector is the dominant segment of the UK economy. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2266(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2354(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2188(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2163(23.6%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar gained ground against its U.S. counterpart on Monday, but by a lesser degree than some other G10 currencies as oil prices fell and investors awaited a Bank of Canada interest rate decision.The Canadian central bank will leave interest rates on hold at a 22-year high of 5% on Wednesday as the economy stalls, analysts said, though many see the bank warning that future hikes are still possible with inflation hovering well above its 2% target. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, fell as diplomatic efforts in the Middle East intensified in an attempt to contain the conflict between Israel and Hamas, easing investor concerns about potential supply disruptions.The loonie was trading 0.3% higher at 1.3680 to the greenback .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3705(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3751 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3676 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3619 (50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar touched the closely watched 150 level against the yen on Monday before falling back again on threat of Japanese intervention. Investors were betting the BOJ would defend the 150 level, even as others saw rising U.S. yields as a reason to keep pushing the dollar up. While there was some speculation the BOJ might once again tweak its yield-curve policy band at a scheduled policy review next week.The recent surge in global interest rates is heightening pressure on the BOJ to adjust its bond yield control stance next week, with a hike to an existing yield cap set just three months ago being discussed as a possibility. Strong resistance can be seen at 150.00 (Daily high),an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.13(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.69 (9DMA)a break below could take the pair towards 149.33 (Oct 3rd high).
Equities Recap
European shares edged lower on Monday as rising government bond yields and concerns over the Israel-Hamas war kept investors on edge, while Italy's FTSE MIB index was among top gainers across the regional markets.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.37 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.02 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0. 50 percent.
U.S. stocks wavered to a mixed close on Monday as benchmark U.S. Treasury yields backed down from 5% and investors shifted their focus to this week's high profile earnings and closely watched economic data.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.58 percent, S&P 500 ended down by 0.17 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 0.27 percent.
Treasuries Recap
The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose above 5.0% on Monday, hitting the July 2007 milestone that it briefly attempted to scale last week.
The 10-year yield touched 5.004% on Monday, up around 8 basis points (bps) on the day.It was briefly bid at a 16-year high of 5.001% on Thursday. It has risen 160 basis points since mid-May.
Commodities Recap
Safe-haven gold eased on Monday, hitting pause after jumping to within striking distance of the key $2,000 level in the last session, as traders positioned for further developments on the Middle East conflict and U.S. economic data.
Spot gold fell 0.3% to $1,976.19 per ounce by 1:41 p.m. ET (1741 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled 0.3% lower at $1,987.80.
Oil prices fell over 2% on Monday as diplomatic efforts in the Middle East intensified in an attempt to contain the conflict between Israel and Hamas, easing investor concerns about potential supply disruptions.
Brent crude futures settled down $2.33, or 2.5%, at $89.83 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down $2.59, or 2.9%, at $85.49 a barrel.