Posted at 23 October 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Switzerland Sep M3 Money Supply 1,129.2B, 1,132.3B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•12:55 French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.776% previous
•12:55 French 3-Months BTF Auction 3.788% previous
•12:55 French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.816% previous
•14:00 EU Oct Consumer Confidence -18.3 forecast ,-17.8 previous
•15:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.340% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No significant events ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against dollar on Monday as investors awaited for several events this week, including a European Central Bank meeting, and the release of U.S. GDP data and the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. The ECB meets on Thursday, poll shows while it is done raising rates it won't begin easing until at least July 2024. It raised its key interest rates by 25 basis points in September. On Friday, S&P upgraded Greece's credit rating to investment grade, the first of the "big three" ratings agencies to do so since the country's debt crisis erupted in 2010. The euro rose a fraction to $1.0607. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0621(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0692 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0578(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0538(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged higher on Monday but gains were limited as the risk of a wider conflict in the Middle East and the prospect of a long stretch of high interest rates soured sentiment at the start of a week full of key data. Sterling might catch a bid if October's UK flash services PMI springs an upside surprise and comes in at or above 50 for the first time since July on Tuesday - or weaken if it undershoots the 49.5 consensus forecast. A print of 50 or above, which marks growth in activity, would be a boost for hawks advocating another Bank of England interest rate rise, as the services sector is the dominant segment of the UK economy. The number will be released at 0830 GMT. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2159(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2210(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2095(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.20538 (Oct 4th low).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar edged higher against Swiss franc on Monday as investors looked forward to key U.S. economic data this week and kept a close watch on growing unrest in the Middle East. Washington warned of a significant risk to U.S. interests in the Middle East as Israel bombarded Gaza with air strikes and clashes on its border with Lebanon intensified. Investors will also focus on the U.S. PCE price index the Federal Reserve’s favoured inflation gauge U.S. GDP figures for the third quarter, the European Central Bank’s rate decision and global flash PMIs for economic cues. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8950(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8958(23.6 %fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8906(38.2 %fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8834 (50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar touched the closely watched 150 level against the yen on Monday before falling back again on threat of Japanese intervention. Investors were betting the BOJ would defend the 150 level, even as others saw rising U.S. yields as a reason to keep pushing the dollar up. While there was some speculation the BOJ might once again tweak its yield-curve policy band at a scheduled policy review next week.The recent surge in global interest rates is heightening pressure on the BOJ to adjust its bond yield control stance next week, with a hike to an existing yield cap set just three months ago being discussed as a possibility. Strong resistance can be seen at 150.00 (Daily high),an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.13(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.69 (9DMA)a break below could take the pair towards 149.33 (Oct 3rd high).
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Monday, as the Israel-Hamas war kept investors on edge at the start of a week packed with key data releases, earnings reports and the European Central Bank's (ECB) policy meeting.
At (GMT 13:11 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.40 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.60 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.02 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices inched lower on Monday after hitting a five-month peak in the previous session as the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield topped 5% while investors kept a close watch on growing unrest in the Middle East.
Spot gold was down 0.2% at $1,978.07 per ounce by 1126 GMT, and U.S. gold futures eased 0.2% to $1,989.80.
Oil prices slipped on Monday as investors continued to focus on the situation in the Middle East, where diplomatic efforts are intensifying in an attempt to contain the conflict between Israel and Hamas.
Brent crude futures fell 41 cents, or 0.44%, to $91.75 a barrel, as of 1204 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 55 cents, or 0.62%, at $87.53 a barrel.
Both benchmarks traded over $1 a barrel lower than their previous settlement price at their nadir in Monday's session.