Posted at 20 October 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German Sep PPI (MoM) -0.2% ,0.4% forecast,0.3% previous
•UK Sep Retail Sales (YoY) -1.0%, -0.1% forecast, -1.4% previous
•UK Sep Core Retail Sales (MoM) -1.0%, -0.4% forecast ,0.6% previous
•UK Sep Core Retail Sales (YoY) -1.2%, -0.2% forecast, -1.4% previous
•UK Sep German Car Registration (MoM) -17.9% forecast, 12.4% previous
•German Sep PPI (YoY) -14.7%, -14.2% forecast, -12.6% previous
•UK Sep Car Registration (YoY) 21.0%, 24.4% previous
•UK Sep Retail Sales (MoM) -0.9%,-0.2% forecast,0.4% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 Canada Aug Retail Sales (MoM) -0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
•12:30 Canada Aug Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.0% forecast, 1.0% previous
• 17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 501 previous
• 17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 622 previous
• 18:00 US Sep Federal Budget Balance -78.6B forecast, 89.3B previous
Looking Ahead Events And POther Releases(GMT)
•13:00 US FOMC Member Harker Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against dollar on Friday as investors expect central banks to leave policy rates at high levels for an extended period without ruling out additional hikes. The European Central Bank meets next week and is expected to keep its rates on hold after 10 consecutive increases but for now traders were just trying to make it to the end of the week.Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell had said on Thursday that he agreed "in principle" that the recent jump in bond yields might "at the margin" lessen the need for more rate hikes, but also stressed the strength of the U.S. economy. On the data front, German producer prices posted their biggest year-on-year decline in September since data collection began in 1949, spurring hopes for further easing of inflation. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0591(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0601(21DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0525(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0442(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling eased on Friday after data showed a bigger than expected drop in September retail sales. British retail sales fell more than expected in September as shoppers avoided buying autumn clothing during unseasonably warm weather, against a backdrop of broader cost of living pressures that could see the economy shrink overall in the third quarter.Retail sales volumes dropped by 0.9% on the month after a 0.4% rise in August, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said on Friday, a much bigger decline than the 0.2% fall economists had forecast in a poll. At 0851 GMT, sterling was down 0.3% against the dollar to $1.2106. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2218(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2261 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2099(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2051 (Oct 4th low).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar declined against Swiss franc on Friday as Middle East conflict spurred demand for safe haven assets. Israel levelled a northern Gaza district on Friday and ordered the evacuation of the biggest Israeli town near the Lebanese border, as it made clear that a command to invade Gaza was expected soon. U.S. President Joe Biden asked Americans on Thursday to spend billions more dollars to help Israel fight Hamas, amid mounting expectations that Israeli forces will imminently mount a ground invasion of Gaza.A U.S. Navy warship intercepted three cruise missiles and several drones launched by the Iran-aligned Houthi movement from Yemen potentially toward Israel .Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8958(11DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9053 (23.6 %fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8891(38.2 %fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8820 (61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar little changed on Friday as as global focus remains on conflict in the Middle East.The dollar briefly touched the closely watched 150 level against the yen on Friday, encouraged by a rise in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields towards 5% after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested there was scope for more rate rises.The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury , which nudged at 5% for the first time in 16 years overnight, has risen by 30 basis points this week marking its biggest weekly rise since April 2022. The yen briefly revisited 150 to the dollar again although the greenback was flat against other major world currencies after a largely quiet week. Strong resistance can be seen at 149.91 (Daily high),an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.13(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.24 (38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 148.90 (21DMA).
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Friday and were set to post their biggest weekly loss in three months as mounting fears about a wider Middle East conflict, surging government bond yields, and underwhelming earnings reports kept investors risk-averse.
At (GMT 12:20 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.90 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 1.33 percent, France’s CAC was down by 1.16 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold climbed to a three-month peak on Friday, en route to a second straight weekly rise, as fears of a further escalation in the Middle East conflict bolstered safe-haven demand.
Spot gold was up 0.5% at $1,983.46 per ounce by 1028 GMT, after hitting its highest since July 20. U.S. gold futures added 0.8% to $1,995.70.
Oil prices leapt nearly 6% on Friday, with Brent posting its highest weekly gain since February, as investors priced in the possibility that the conflict in the Middle East could widen as Israel began ground raids inside the Gaza Strip.
Brent futures settled up $4.89, or 5.7%, at $90.89 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained $4.78, or 5.8%, to $87.69 a barrel..