Posted at 19 October 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•French Oct Business Survey 98, 99 forecast, 99 previous
•EU Aug Oct Current Account 27.7B , 20.9B previous
•EU Aug Oct Current Account n.s.a. 30.7B, 26.9B previous
•Spanish Trade Balance -4.40B,-4.90B previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims 198K, 212K forecast, 209K previous
•Canada Sep RMPI (YoY) 2.4% ,-4.3% previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 205.75K,206.25K previous
•US Jobless Continuing Jobless Claims 1,734K, 1,710K forecast, 1,702K previous
•US Oct Philly Fed CAPEX Index -4.80, 7.50 previous
•US Oct Philly Fed Employment 4.0,-5.7 previous
•Canada Sep IPPI (MoM) 0.4%, 0.3% forecast,1.3% previous
•US Oct Philly Fed Prices Paid 23.10, 25.70 previous
•US Oct Philly Fed New Orders 4.4,-10.2 previous
•US Oct Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index -9.0,-6.4 forecast, -13.5 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•14:00 US Sep Existing Home Sales 3.89M forecast, 4.04M previous
•14:00 US Sep Existing Home Sales (MoM) -0.7% previous
•14:00 US Sep Leading Index (MoM) -0.4% forecast, -0.4% previous
•14:30 US Natural Gas Storage 80B forecast, 84B previous
•15:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 5.325% previous
•15:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction 5.345% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release (GMT)
•16:00 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks
•16:00 US Fed Goolsbee Speaks
•17:30 US Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks
•18:00 US Sep Federal Budget Balance -78.6B forecast, 89.3B previous
•20:00 US’FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
•20:30 US Fed's Balance Sheet 7,952B previous
•20:30 US Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks 3.316T previous
•21:30 US FOMC Member Harker Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against dollar on Thursday as interest rate worries gathered steam and tensions in the Middle East showed little signs of easing. Geopolitical tensions continued to mount with anti-Israel protests flaring across the Middle East, while U.S. Treasury yields jumped to multi-year highs ahead of commentary by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell due at 1600 GMT.Market focus will also be on Powell’s speech to the Economic Club of New York for more cues on the interest rate path following the recent dovish comments from several Fed officials. Euro was 0.1% firmer at $1.05515. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0591(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0601(21DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0525(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0442(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling fell on Thursdays traders stayed risk-averse and continued to digest data from Tuesday showing UK inflation unexpectedly held at 6.7% in September, raising the possibility of another rise in interest rates. Domestically, traders are still poring over Monday's wage data and Tuesday's inflation numbers. The hotter-than-expected consumer price print followed data showing that growth in British workers' regular pay slowed from a previous record high and job vacancies also declined.Signs of a softer labour market boosted the chance the Bank of England will leave rates unchanged at its next meeting, while the inflation figures did the opposite. At 0851 GMT, sterling was down 0.3% against the dollar to $1.2106. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2218(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2261 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2099(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2051 (Oct 4th low).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar declined against Swiss franc on Thursday as escalating Middle East turmoil buoyed demand for the safe-haven Swiss franc. Market focus will be on Powell’s speech to the Economic Club of New York for more cues on the U.S. interest rate path after recent dovish comments from several Fed officials.The Fed will keep its key interest rate on hold on Nov. 1 and may wait longer than previously thought before cutting it, according to economists in a poll, as the U.S. central bank’s higher-for-longer message gains traction. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8995(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9094 (11DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8962(38.2 %fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8874 (50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar little changed on Thursday as Bank of Japan intervention fears kept investors cautious.Japan is struggling with a weak yen, and Japan's top currency diplomat said on Thursday that, although not acting in response to excessive currency moves could hurt the vulnerable, it would be better if they did not have to intervene. The dollar was last at 149.82 yen, closing in on the psychologically significant 150 yen level that earlier this month triggered a sharp sudden strengthening for the yen, although analysts say the indications suggest Japan did not intervene. The yen, a traditional safe haven, has not benefited much from risk aversion due to the war in the Middle East, unlike the Swiss franc, which has strengthened sharply.Strong resistance can be seen at 149.91 (Daily high),an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.13(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.24 (38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 148.90 (21DMA).
Equities Recap
European shares tumbled on Thursday as a raft of dismal corporate earnings, including from packaged food giant Nestle, worsened an already risk-averse mood, driven by jitters around the Middle East war and uncertainty over interest rates.
At (GMT 12:20 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.96 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.11 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.52 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices hovered near a 2-1/2-month high on Thursday as escalating Middle East turmoil buoyed demand for the safe-haven asset, while investors awaited U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech due later in the day.
Spot gold was steady at $1,948.99 per ounce by 0713 GMT after hitting its highest since Aug. 1 on Tuesday. U.S. gold futures eased 0.4% to $1,960.80.
Oil prices fell about 1% on Thursday as the United States eased sanctions on Venezuela to allow more oil to flow globally, but fears that Israel's military campaign in Gaza may escalate to a regional conflict kept a lid on losses.
Brent futures for December were down $1, or 1.1%, to $90.50 a barrel at 1307 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for November, which expire on Friday, stood at $87.39 per barrel, down 93 cents, or 1.1%.