Posted at 18 October 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Sep Core RPI (YoY) 7.6%, 7.8% previous
•UK Sep CPI, n.s.a 132.00, 131.30 previous
•UK Sep CPI (MoM) 0.5%, 0.5% forecast, 0.3% previous
•UK Sep CPI Core RPI (MoM) 0.4%, 0.5% previous
•UK Sep CPI (YoY)6.7%, 6.6% forecast, 6.7% previous
•UK Sep RPI (MoM) 0.5%, 0.5% forecast, 0.6% previous
•UK Sep PPI Output (YoY) -0.1%, -0.2% forecast, -0.4% previous
•UK Sep PPI Input (YoY) -2.6%, -2.3% previous
•UK Sep Core PPI Output (YoY) 0.7%, 1.6% previous
•UK Sep PPI Input (MoM) 0.4%,0.9% forecast, 0.4% previous
•UK Sep Core PPI Output (MoM) 0.0%, -0.1% previous
•EU Sep HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous
•EU Sep CPI (MoM) 0.3%,0.3% forecast,0.5% previous
•EU Aug Construction Output (MoM) -1.06% forecast, 1.00% previous
•EU Sep CPI (YoY) 4.3%,4.3% forecast,5.2% previous
•EU Sep CPI ex Tobacco (YoY) 4.3%, 5.2% previous
•EU Sep HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) 5.5%, 5.5% forecast,6.2% previous
•EU Sep Core CPI (MoM) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast,0.3% previous
•EU Sep Core CPI (YoY) 4.5%, 4.5% forecast,5.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•12:30 US Sep Housing Starts 1.380M forecast,1.283M previous
•12:30 US Sep Building Permits 1.455M forecast, 1.541M previous
•12:30 US Sep Building Permits (MoM) 6.8% previous
•12:30 US Sep Housing Starts (MoM) -11.3% previous
•14:30 US EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (WoW)-1.6% previous
•14:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -0.319M previous
•14:30 US Distillate Fuel Production 0.038M previous
•14:30 US Gasoline Production 0.858M previous
•14:30 US EIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW) -0.399M previous
•14:30 US Heating Oil Stockpiles -0.433M previous
•14:30 US EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks -1.360M forecast,-1.837M previous
•14:30 US Gasoline Inventories -1.097M forecast,-1.313M previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -0.300M forecast, 10.176M previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Imports 2.003M previous
•18:00 US Beige Book
•18:00 US Federal Budget Balance -78.6B forecast, 89.3B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•16:00 US Fed Waller Speaks
•16:30 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
•17:00 US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against dollar on Wednesday as deepening fears over an escalation in the Middle East conflict kept investors cautions. Investor sentiment was fragile, as Israeli and Palestinian authorities traded blame for the blast that killed hundreds at a Gaza hospital, complicating U.S. President Joe Biden's already fraught trip to the region. The burgeoning uncertainty over the Middle East war, and better-than-expected U.S. economic data have kept euro under pressure this week. The euro was down 0.2% at $1.0555 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0539 (11DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0583(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0499(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0454(Oct 4th low).
GBP/USD: Sterling made slim gains on Wednesday after data showed UK inflation held steady in September, though above expectations for a slight retreat.UK consumer price inflation held at 6.7% in September, an 18-month low, showing no acceleration. It was, however, above expectations for a retreat to 6.6%. The Bank of England is expected to leave interest rates at 5.25% in early November. It kept them on hold in September, following an unexpected drop in the August inflation rate.The pound by 0842 GMT was up 0.15% on the day against the dollar at $1.2205, having earlier risen to $1.2210 after the inflation data. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2211(11DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2242 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2134(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2104(Oct 6th low).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar edged lower against Swiss franc on Wednesday as better-than-expected growth in China helped put a dampener on the greenback's rally. Official data showed China's economy grew 1.3% in the third quarter, accelerating from 0.5% in the previous quarter and topping market forecasts for an increase of 1%. Industrial output rose and unemployment fell.The dollar index was marginally higher at 106.3. The gauge, which tracks the greenback against six major peers, rose 0.53% on Tuesday but remains below an 11-month high of 107.34 touched last week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9070(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9094 (11DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8989(38.2 %fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8922 (50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar little changed on Wednesday as investors were on the edge for any signs of intervention by the Japanese authorities The Bank of Japan on Wednesday unexpectedly announced $2 billion in bond-buying to keep downward pressure on yields.The 150 yen mark has become a key psychological level after past government interventions to prop up the currency occurred around that point. Earlier in October the yen rallied sharply after falling past 150, although it later fell back and early indications suggest Japan did not intervene. The yen was last up slightly at 149.68 to the dollar. Strong resistance can be seen at 149.91 (Daily high),an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.13(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.24 (38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 148.90 (21DMA).
Equities Recap
European stocks inched lower on Wednesday as deepening fears over an escalation in the Middle East conflict and a drop in shares of chipmakers after ASML's lacklustre forecast overshadowed support from upbeat Chinese economic data.
At (GMT 12:20 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.51 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.37 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.32 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold rose more than 1% on Wednesday after a deadly blast in Gaza raised fears of an escalation in the Middle East conflict and pushed investors towards safe-haven assets.
Spot gold rose 1.1% to $1,944.90 per ounce by 1131 GMT, its highest since Sept. 20. U.S. gold futures jumped 1.2% to $1,958.90.
Oil prices traded around two-week peaks, driven by concerns over the Middle East and data showing a fall in crude stocks.
Brent rose 2.6% to $92.21 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose 2.7% to $89 per barrel.