Posted at 17 October 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US Sep Retail Control (MoM) 0.6%, 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
•US Sep CPI (MoM) -0.1%,0.1% forecast, 0.4% previous
•US Sep Retail Sales (YoY) 3.75%,2.90% previous
• Canada Aug Foreign Securities Purchases -8.47B, 11.78B forecast, 11.62B previous
• Canada Aug Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians 14.94B,2.61B previous
• Canada Sep Trimmed CPI (YoY) 3.7%, 3.8% forecast,3.9% previous
• Canada Sep Median CPI (YoY) 3.8%, 4.0% forecast, 4.1% previous
• Canada Sep Common CPI (YoY) 4.4%, 4.7% forecast, 4.8% previous
•US Sep Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) 0.6%, 0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
•US Sep Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.6%, 0.2% forecast, 0.6% previous
•US Sep Retail Sales (MoM) 0.7%, 0.3% forecast, 0.6% previous
•US Redbook (YoY) 4.6%, 4.0% previous
•US Sep Industrial Production (YoY) 0.08% , 0.25% previous
•US Sep Manufacturing Production (MoM) 0.4% , 0.1% forecast,0.1% previous
•US Sep Capacity Utilization Rate 79.7% , 79.6% forecast,79.7% previous
•US Sep Industrial Production (MoM) 0.3% ,0.1% forecast,0.4% previous
•US Aug Retail Inventories Ex Auto 0.6% forecast,0.0% previous
•US Aug Business Inventories (MoM) 0.5% , 0.3% forecast,0.0% previous
•US Oct NAHB Housing Market Index 40 ,44 forecast,45 previous
•GlobalDairyTrade Price Index 40 , 4.4% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•02:00 China Sep Industrial Production (YoY) 4.3% forecast, 4.5% previous
•02:00 China Sep Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 3.2% forecast, 3.2% previous
•02:00 China Sep Retail Sales (YoY) 4.5% forecast, 4.6% previous
•02:00 China Sep GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 1.0% forecast, 0.8% previous
•02:00 China Sep Chinese Industrial Production YTD (YoY) 3.9% previous
•02:00 China Sep Chinese Retail Sales YTD (YoY) 6.98% previous
•02:00 China Sep Chinese Unemployment Rate 5.2% forecast, 5.2% previous
•02:00 China Sep GDP (YoY) (Q3) 4.4% forecast, 6.3% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against dollar on Tuesday after data showed German investor morale improved by more than expected in October . German investor morale improved more than expected in October, the ZEW economic research institute said on Tuesday, as market experts forecast a further decline in inflation while warning the economic situation remained challenging.The institute's economic sentiment index rose to -1.1 points from -11.4 points in September.Analysts polled had projected an October reading of -9.3. The euro was up 0.1% at $1.0576. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0539 (11DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0583(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0499(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0454(Oct 4th low).
GBP/USD: Sterling fell on Tuesday after data showed that growth in British workers’ regular pay slowed from a previous record high and job vacancies also declined, with a softer labour market boosting the chance the Bank of England (BoE) will hold rates unchanged. In a sign that the labour market is losing momentum, job vacancies declined and British average earnings, excluding bonuses, were 7.8% higher than a year earlier during the three months to August, down from an upwardly revised 7.9% in the three months to July, marking the first such fall since January. Sterling was last at $1.2182, down 0.4% on the day, after jumping 0.6% on Monday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2184(11DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2215(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2104(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2035(Oct 4th low).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened to an 11-day low against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday as investors raised bets that the Bank of Canada will leave interest rates on hold next week after domestic data showing an unexpected easing of inflation. Canada’s annual inflation rate slowed to 3.8% in September and underlying core measures also eased. Analysts polled had forecast inflation would hold steady at the 4.0% rate recorded in August. The Canadian dollar was trading 0.3% lower at 1.3645 to the greenback, or 73.29 U.S. cents, after touching its weakest intraday level since Oct. 6 at 1.3702. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3705 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3745(Oct 6th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3647 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3607( 38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened on Tuesday after data showed that U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in September. U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in September as households stepped up purchases of motor vehicles and spent more at restaurants and bars, cementing expectations that economic growth accelerated sharply in the third quarter. Retail sales rose 0.7% last month. Data for August was revised higher to show sales advancing 0.8% instead of 0.6% as previously reported. Economists polled had forecast retail sales rising 0.3% in September. Strong resistance can be seen at 149.78 (Daily high),an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.13(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.24 (38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 148.90 (21DMA).
Equities Recap
European stocks edged higher on Tuesday as gains in energy shares and slight easing of concerns about risks stemming from the Middle East conflict supported sentiment.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.58 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.09 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.11 percent.
The Nasdaq dipped and benchmark U.S. Treasury yields surged on Tuesday as robust economic data and strong third-quarter earnings sugested the Federal Reserve may keep policy tight for longer than expected.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.04 % percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.01% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.25% percent.
Treasuries Recap
Benchmark Treasury yields spiked after the strong retail sales data led market participants to adjust their expectations regarding the duration of the central bank's tightening cycle.
Benchmark 10-year notes last fell 31/32 in price to yield 4.8383%, from 4.71% late on Monday.The 30-year bond last fell 30/32 in price to yield 4.9323%, from 4.866% late on Monday.
Commodities Recap
Safe-haven gold consolidated gains on Tuesday as traders kept a close eye on developments surrounding the Israel-Hamas conflict, while also positioning for cues on the U.S. rate hike path from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell this week.
Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,920.36 per ounce by 2:14 p.m. ET (1814 GMT), and U.S. gold futures settled 0.1% higher at $1,935.7.
Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday as investors wait to see if U.S. diplomatic efforts and a trip by President Joe Biden to Israel will prevent the conflict in the Middle East from widening.
Brent crude futures settled up 25 cents to $89.90 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) was unchanged at $86.66.