Posted at 17 October 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Aug Average Earnings Index +Bonus 8.1%,8.3%forecast,8.5% previous
•UK Aug Average Earnings ex Bonus 7.8%,7.8% forecast,7.8% previous
•Spanish 3-Month Letras Auction 3.556%, 3.452% previous
•German Oct ZEW Economic Sentiment 2.3,-8.0 forecast,-8.9 previous
•German Oct ZEW Current Conditions-79.9,-80.8 forecast,-79.4 previous
•German Oct ZEW Economic Sentiment -1.1,-9.3 forecast,-11.4 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Sep Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.6% previous
•12:30 Canada Foreign Securities Purchases 11.78B forecast,11.62B previous
•12:30 Canada Aug Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians 2.61B previous
•12:30 Canada Sep Trimmed CPI (YoY) 3.8% forecast, 3.9% previous
•12:30 Canada Sep Median CPI (YoY) 4.0% forecast,4.1% previous
•12:30 Canada Sep Common CPI (YoY) 4.7% forecast,4.8% previous
•12:30 US Sep Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) 0.2% previous
•12:30 US Sep Retail Sales (MoM) 0.3% forecast,0.6% previous
•12:30 US Sep Retail Control (MoM)0.1% previous
•12:30 Canada Sep Core CPI (MoM) 0.1% previous
•12:30 Canada Sep Core CPI (YoY) 3.3% previous
•12:30 Canada Sep CPI (YoY) 4.0% forecast,4.0% previous
•12:55 US Redbook (YoY) 4.0% previous
•13:15 US Sep Industrial Production (YoY) 0.25% previous
•13:15 US Sep Manufacturing Production (MoM) 0.1% forecast,0.1% previous
•13:15 US Sep Capacity Utilization Rate 79.6% forecast,79.7% previous
•13:15 US Sep Industrial Production (MoM) 0.1% forecast,0.4% previous
•14:00 US Aug Retail Inventories Ex Auto 0.6% forecast,0.0% previous
•14:00 US Aug Business Inventories (MoM) 0.3% forecast,0.0% previous
•14:00 US Oct NAHB Housing Market Index 44 forecast,45 previous
•15:00 GlobalDairyTrade Price Index 4.4% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•14:45 US FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
•13:20 US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
•17:00 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
•17:00 ECB's De Guindos Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against dollar on Tuesday after data showed German investor morale improved by more than expected in October . German investor morale improved more than expected in October, the ZEW economic research institute said on Tuesday, as market experts forecast a further decline in inflation while warning the economic situation remained challenging.The institute's economic sentiment index rose to -1.1 points from -11.4 points in September.Analysts polled had projected an October reading of -9.3. The euro was up 0.1% at $1.0569. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0539 (11DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0583(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0499(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0454(Oct 4th low).
GBP/USD: Sterling fell on Tuesday after data showed that growth in British workers’ regular pay slowed from a previous record high and job vacancies also declined, with a softer labour market boosting the chance the Bank of England (BoE) will hold rates unchanged. In a sign that the labour market is losing momentum, job vacancies declined and British average earnings, excluding bonuses, were 7.8% higher than a year earlier during the three months to August, down from an upwardly revised 7.9% in the three months to July, marking the first such fall since January. Sterling was last at $1.2174, down 0.4% on the day, after jumping 0.6% on Monday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2184(11DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2215(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2104(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2035(Oct 4th low).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar edged lower against Swiss franc on Tuesday as traders took stock of developments in the Middle East and braced for speeches this week by central bank officials, including Federal Reserve Chair Powell, to gauge the policy outlook. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker said on Monday the central bank should not create new pressure on the economy by increasing the cost of borrowing. Investors’ focus will be on Powell’s speech on Thursday after dovish signals by top policymakers in recent weeks raised expectations that rates may have peaked. Fed funds futures traders are pricing in around a 7% chance that the Fed raises rates at its November meeting, with around a 35% chance of a hike by December, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9070(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9094 (11DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8999(38.2 %fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8922 (50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar little changed on Tuesday as investors were on the edge for any signs of intervention by the Japanese authorities. Japan’s top financial diplomat Masato Kanda said the yen was still perceived as a safe haven asset like the dollar and the Swiss franc despite its recent weakness, and was benefiting from demand due to the conflict in the Middle East Investor attention will also be on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who is due to speak on Thursday, during a busy week of speeches by regional bank heads. Fed officials will enter into a blackout period on Oct. 21 before the central bank's Oct. 31–Nov. 1 meeting. Strong resistance can be seen at 149.60 (Daily high),an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.13(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.24 (38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 148.90 (21DMA).
Equities Recap
European stocks were flat on Tuesday as a slew of downbeat earnings reports countered a boost from healthcare and energy shares amid a slight pullback in concerns about risks from the Middle East conflict.
At (GMT 12:10 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.48 percent, Germany's Dax down by 0.39 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.22 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday as investors took stock of developments in the Middle East and awaited Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech later this week for cues on the U.S. interest rate path.
Spot gold was up 0.2% at $1,923.78 per ounce by 1122 GMT, and U.S. gold futures rose 0.1% to $1,936.70.
Oil steadied on Tuesday after sliding more than $1 the day before ahead of a trip by U.S. President Joe Biden to the Middle East that is likely to involve balancing support for Israel with containing a regional escalation of its war with Hamas.
Brent crude futures were up 28 cents at $89.93 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) was up 12 cents at $86.78 a barrel as of 1048 GMT.