Posted at 16 October 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Canada Aug Wholesale Sales (MoM) 2.3%, 2.6% forecast, 0.2% previous
•Canada Aug Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 0.7%,1.0% forecast, 1.6% previous
•US Oct NY Empire State Manufacturing Index-4.60, -7.00 forecast, 1.90 previous
•French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.776%, 3.755% previous
•French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.788%, 3.761% previous
•French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.816% ,3.825% previous
•US 3-Month Bill Auction5.340%, 5.340% previous
•US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.335%, 5.320% previous
•US Sep Federal Budget Balance -78.6B forecast, 89.3B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•00:30 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against dollar on Monday as traders were cautious watching for any signs of escalation in the Israel-Hamas war. The Israeli-Hamas war has sharpened focus on rising geopolitical risks for financial markets, as investors wait to see if the conflict draws in other countries with the potential to drive up oil prices further and deal a fresh blow to the world economy. Investors have one eye on the Middle-East developments and another on the U.S. monetary policy, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech due later this week. The euro gained 0.40% to $1.0554. It fell to $1.0448 on Oct. 3, the lowest since December 2022.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0539 (11DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0583(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0499(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0454(Oct 4th low).
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher against dollar on Monday as investors awaited UK inflation data for further guidance on Bank of England’s interest rate path. The main macro-economic release this week is Britain’s consumer price index (CPI) due Wednesday, as well as employment data the day before.Investors will be watching the numbers closely as sterling was supported in the first half of this year by sticky inflation driving expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) would keep raising rates for longer than other central banks. Sterling was up 0.07% against the dollar at $1.2154, keeping a little off early October’s six-month low of 1.20535. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2184(11DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2215(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2104(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2035(Oct 4th low).
USD/CAD: The heavily shorted Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Monday as stock markets rallied and investors awaited domestic inflation data that could offer clues on the Bank of Canada policy outlook. Wall Street's main indexes rallied, while domestic data showed wholesale trade and manufacturing sales posting gains in August.The Bank of Canada's third-quarter Business Outlook Survey was more downbeat, with the outlook falling to its lowest level since the pandemic. Canada is a major producer of commodities, including oil , so the loonie tends to be sensitive to shifts in sentiment.The loonie was trading 0.3% higher at 1.3615 to the greenback , adding to its gains on Friday. The currency moved in a range of 1.3607 to 1.3669.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3662 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3695 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3614(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3566 (21DMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar traded flat against yen on Monday as investors awaited speeches by Federal Reserve officials that will be watched for further clues on interest rate policy and as investors monitored developments in the Middle East. Traders are evaluating whether the U.S. central bank may hike interest rates again as it battles to bring inflation closer to its 2% annual target. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak on Thursday, during a busy week of speeches by regional bank heads. Fed officials will enter into a blackout period on Oct. 21 before the Fed's Oct. 31–Nov. 1 meeting. Traders also remain focused on the Japanese yen for potential intervention in the currency.The dollar was flat against the currency at 149.55, close to the sensitive 150 level. Strong resistance can be seen at 149.60 (Daily high),an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.13(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.24 (38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 148.90 (21DMA).
Equities Recap
European shares kicked off the week on a higher note on Monday, boosted by gains in financial and mining stocks, while investors remained risk-averse on prospects of escalation in the Middle East conflict.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.41 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.34 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.27 percent.
Wall Street jumped and benchmark Treasury yields climbed on Monday as investors embarked upon the first full week of third-quarter earnings while keeping a close eye on the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.93% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 1.06% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 1.20% percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields rose as the government increased debt issuance while an expected Israeli ground invasion of Gaza kept markets in a tentative mood.
Benchmark 10-year notes last fell 20/32 in price to yield 4.7101%, from 4.629% late on Friday.The 30-year bond last fell 39/32 in price to yield 4.862%, from 4.779% late on Friday.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell on Monday after solid gains in the previous session, but the safe-haven metal held firm above the key $1,900 per ounce level as escalating conflict in the Middle East kept investors on edge
Spot gold was down 0.7% at $1,918.20 per ounce by 2:13 p.m. ET (1813 GMT), after hitting its highest since Sept. 20 in the previous session. U.S. gold futures settled 0.4% lower at $1,934.3.
Oil futures fell more then $1 a barrel on Monday as expectations rose the U.S. and Venezuela could soon reach a deal easing sanctions on Venezuelan crude exports, while traders said the Israel-Hamas conflict did not appear to threaten oil supplies in the short term.
Brent crude futures settled at $89.65 a barrel, down $1.24, or 1.4%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) fell $1.03, or 1.2%, to finish at $86.66 a barrel.