Posted at 16 October 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Italian Sep CPI Ex Tobacco (YoY) 5.1%, 5.2% previous
•Italian Sep Italian HICP (YoY) 5.6%,5.7% forecast,5.5% previous
•Italian Sep Italian CPI (MoM) 0.2%,0.2% forecast,0.3% previous
•Italian Sep Italian CPI (YoY) 5.3%,5.3% forecast,5.4% previous
•Italian Sep Italian HICP (MoM) 1.7%,1.7% forecast,0.2% previous
•EU Aug Trade Balance 6.7B, 6.5B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 Canada Aug Wholesale Sales (MoM) 2.6% forecast, 0.2% previous
•12:30 Canada Aug Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 1.0% forecast, 1.6% previous
•12:30 US Oct NY Empire State Manufacturing Index -7.00 forecast, 1.90 previous
•12:55 French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.755% previous
•12:55 French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.761% previous
•12:55 French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.825% previous
•15:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.340% previous
•15:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.320% previous
•18:00 US Sep Federal Budget Balance -78.6B forecast, 89.3B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•14:30 US FOMC Member Harker Speaks
•14:30 UK BoE Deputy Governor Woods Speaks
•14:30 Canada BoC Business Outlook Survey
•20:10 UK BoE Deputy Governor Woods Speaks
•20:30 US FOMC Member Harker Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against dollar on Monday as traders were cautious watching for any signs of escalation in the Israel-Hamas war.The Israeli-Hamas war has sharpened focus on rising geopolitical risks for financial markets, as investors wait to see if the conflict draws in other countries with the potential to drive up oil prices further and deal a fresh blow to the world economy. Investors have one eye on the Middle-East developments and another on the U.S. monetary policy, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech due later this week. The euro was last 0.2% higher at $1.05231 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0539 (11DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0583(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0499(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0454(Oct 4th low).
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher against dollar on Monday as investors awaited UK inflation data for further guidance on Bank of England’s interest rate path. The main macro-economic release this week is Britain’s consumer price index (CPI) due Wednesday, as well as employment data the day before.Investors will be watching the numbers closely as sterling was supported in the first half of this year by sticky inflation driving expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) would keep raising rates for longer than other central banks. Sterling was up 0.07% against the dollar at $1.2154, keeping a little off early October’s six-month low of 1.20535. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2184(11DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2215(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2104(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2035(Oct 4th low).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar edged lower against Swiss franc on Monday as fragile sentiment against a backdrop of conflict in the Middle East supporting demand for the safe-haven currency.Israeli forces kept up their bombardment of Gaza on Monday after diplomatic efforts to arrange a ceasefire to allow foreign passport holders to leave and aid to be brought into the besieged Palestinian enclave failed. The dollar index eased 0.084% to 106.47, but held close to highs touched on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9070(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9094 (11DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8999(38.2 %fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8922 (50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar traded flat against yen on Monday as prospects of an escalation in the Middle East conflict kept investors on the sidelines. On Friday, Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda said authorities will take appropriate action against a backdrop of excessive moves in the yen when needed, adding interest rates are merely one factor in determining exchange rates. The BOJ has continued to maintain its ultra-easy policy settings although markets are rife with speculation that it could move to gradually exit from the accommodative stance sooner rather than later. The yen was flat at 149.54 per dollar, close to the sensitive 150-level. Strong resistance can be seen at 149.60 (Daily high),an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.13(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.24 (38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 148.90 (21DMA).
Equities Recap
European shares were flat on Monday as prospects of an escalation in the Middle East conflict kept investors on the sidelines, though equities in Poland climbed following Sunday's parliamentary election.
At (GMT 12:02 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.34 percent, Germany's Dax down by 0.10 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.02 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell on Monday due to technical selling after a strong rally in the previous session, although concerns over a potential escalation in the conflict in the Middle East kept bullion above $1,900 per ounce.
Spot gold was down 0.9% to $1,915.10 per ounce by 1130 GMT after hitting its highest since Sept. 20. U.S. gold futures was down 0.7% to $1,928.60.
Brent oil futures steadied above $90 a barrel on Monday after topping that level on Friday, as investors waited to see if the Israel-Hamas conflict escalates further.
Brent futures were down 4 cents, or 0.04%, at $90.85 a barrel at 1120 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose by 12 cents, or 0.14%, to $87.81 a barrel.