Posted at 14 October 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Israeli military says troops make first ground raids into Gaza
•Gold gains 5.2% so far this week
•U Mich's preliminary consumer sentiment index at 63 vs 67.2 estimate
•US indexes: Dow up 0.12%, S&P down 0.50%, Nasdaq off 1.23%
• US Import Sep Price Index (MoM) 0.1%,0.5% forecast,0.5% previous
• US Export Sep Price Index (MoM) 0.7%,0.5%forecast,1.3% previous
• US Export Price Index (YoY) -4.1%,-5.5% previous
• US Import Price Index (YoY) -1.7%,-3.0% previous
•US Oct Michigan Consumer Expectations 60.7, 65.5 forecast ,66.0 previous
•US Oct Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 3.0%, 2.8% previous
•US Oct Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations 3.8%, 3.2% previous
•US Oct Michigan Consumer Sentiment 63.0, 67.2 forecast ,68.1 previous
•US Oct Michigan Current Conditions 66.7, 70.4 forecast ,71.4 previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 501, 497 previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 622,619 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•No data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•10:00 US IMF Meetings
•12:00 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro declined against dollar on Friday as hot U.S. consumer prices data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may have to keep interest rates higher for longer.The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4% in September, keeping the annual rate at 3.7%, the same as in August, while economists polled by Reuters had forecast it would gain 0.3% on the month and 3.6% year-on-year. Data on Friday showed U.S. consumer sentiment deteriorated in October, with households expecting higher inflation over the next year, but labor market strength was likely to continue supporting consumer spending. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six of its major peers, ticked up 0.11% to 106.63. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0543 (11DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0573 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0486(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0458(Oct 4th low).
GBP/USD: GBP/USD: The pound declined against dollar on Friday as sluggish UK data and a resurgent dollar weighed on sterling. Next week’s data releases might offer a steer on what to expect from the Bank of England when its policymakers meet in early November to set interest rates. Persistently high inflation and record wage growth because of a tight labour market have complicated the BoE's efforts to anchor consumer prices. Britain still has the highest inflation of any G7 nation and next year is expected to have the slowest growth, according to projections from the International Monetary Fund this week. Money markets currently show traders believe UK rates are very close to peaking, with only a 50/50 chance of another rate rise in the BoE's current policy cycle. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2188(11DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2222( 50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2127(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2028(23.6%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged higher against its U.S. counterpart on Friday as the price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, moved sharply higher and investors raised bets on another Bank of Canada interest rate hike later this month. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said a recent surge in long-term bond yields is not a substitute for monetary policy and the bank would be weighing whether to let previous rate hikes work through the economy or raise again to counter sticky inflation. Money markets see a 36% chance of a rate hike at the central bank’s next policy decision on Oct. 25, up from 27% before Macklem spoke. The loonie was trading 0.2% higher at 1.3660 to the greenback. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3720 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3744(Oct 6th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3643 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3591(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged lower against yen on Friday as the intensifying conflict in the Middle East sent investors scurrying for safe-haven assets. Investors kept a tab on developments in the Middle East conflict, which has unnerved markets since the start of the week. Israel said its infantry and tanks had carried out raids inside the Gaza Strip, its first announcement of a shift from an air war to ground operations to root out Hamas fighters a week after their deadly rampage in southern Israel.This fuelled inflows into assets considered to be safe havens such as Japanese yen. The Japanese yen was last up 0.21% at 149.5 per dollar.Strong resistance can be seen at 149.91 (5DMA).an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.19(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.16 (11DMA)a break below could take the pair towards 148.34 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares faltered on Friday, tracking risk-aversion across global markets and as rising energy prices added to concerns about persistent inflationary pressures, though the benchmark index gained on the week.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.59 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 1.55 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 1.42 percent.
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq closed lower on Friday as deteriorating consumer sentiment data and the Middle East conflict soured investors on riskier bets and overshadowed upbeat quarterly earnings from some of the largest U.S. banks.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.12 percent, S&P 500 was down 0.50 percent, Nasdaq was down by 1.23 percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasuries rose on Friday, on safe-haven buying driven by the escalating Middle East conflict as Israel urged civilians to leave the northern Gaza Strip.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was last down 8.2 basis points at 4.629%.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices leapt nearly 6% on Friday, with Brent posting its highest weekly gain since February, as investors priced in the possibility that the conflict in the Middle East could widen as Israel began ground raids inside the Gaza Strip.
Brent futures settled up $4.89, or 5.7%, at $90.89 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained $4.78, or 5.8%, to $87.69 a barrel.Both benchmarks posted their highest daily percentage gains since April.
Gold prices jumped more than 3% on Friday and were poised for their best week in seven months as the intensifying conflict in the Middle East sent investors scurrying for safe-haven assets.
Spot gold was up 3.2% at $1,928.15 per ounce by 0309 p.m. ET (1908 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled 3.1% higher at $1,941.50. Prices were up 5.2% for the week.