Posted at 13 October 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Swiss Sep PPI (YoY) -1.0%, -0.8% previous
•Swiss Sep PPI (MoM) -0.1%,0.2%forecast, -0.2% previous
•Swiss Sep CPI (MoM) -0.50%, -0.50% previous
•French Sep CPI (MoM) -0.5%,-0.5% forecast,1.0% previous
•EU Sep CPI (YoY) 4.90%, 4.90% previous
•EU Sep French HICP (YoY) 5.7%,5.6% forecast,5.7% previous
•EU Sep Inflation (YoY) 4.80%, 4.80% previous
•EU Sep French HICP (MoM) -0.6%,-0.6% forecast,1.1% previous
•EU Aug Industrial Production (YoY) -5.1% ,-3.5% forecast,-2.2% previous
•EU Aug Industrial Production (MoM) 0.6%,0.1% forecast, -1.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 12:30 US Import Sep Price Index (MoM) 0.5% forecast,0.5% previous
• 12:30 US Export Sep Price Index (MoM) 0.5% forecast,1.3% previous
• 12:30 US Export Price Index (YoY) -5.5% previous
• 12:30 US Import Price Index (YoY)-3.0% previous
• 14:00 US Oct Michigan Consumer Expectations 65.5 forecast ,66.0 previous
• 14:00 US Oct Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 2.8% previous
• 14:00 US Oct Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations 3.2% previous
• 14:00 US Oct Michigan Consumer Sentiment 67.2 forecast ,68.1 previous
• 14:00 US Oct Michigan Current Conditions 70.4 forecast ,71.4 previous
•17:00 US Sep Federal Budget Balance -78.6B forecast ,89.3B previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 497 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count619 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•16:30 UK BoE MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined against dollar on Friday as hot U.S. consumer prices data revived prospects that the Federal Reserve may have to raise rates further to get inflation back towards its 2% target.The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4% in September, keeping the annual rate at 3.7%, the same as in August, while economists polled by Reuters had forecast it would gain 0.3% on the month and 3.6% year-on-year. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six of its major peers, ticked up 0.1% to 106.64, its highest level in a week. It rose 0.8% on Thursday, its biggest one-day jump since March 15. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0636 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0680(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0547(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0458(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound declined against dollar on Friday after U.S. inflation data came in hotter than expected, unnerving investors. Next week’s data releases might offer a steer on what to expect from the Bank of England when its policymakers meet in early November to set interest rates. Next week’s data releases might offer a steer on what to expect from the Bank of England when its policymakers meet in early November to set interest rates.Sterling was last up 0.1% on the day at $1.2178, having fallen by 1.1% on Thursday, as the dollar swept higher across the board. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2331(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2352( 50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2234(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2175(Oct 9th low).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar firmed against Swiss franc on Friday after U.S. consumer prices increased more than expected, bolstering the case for the Federal Reserve to keep rates higher for longer. The increase in U.S. consumer prices for September contained a surprise surge in rental costs and traders now see a stronger chance the Fed will end up delivering another hike this year.Futures contracts that settle to the Fed policy rate reflect about a 40% probability of a rate hike in December, compared with about a 28% chance seen before the inflation report. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9110(11DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9151(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9066(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8992 (50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar steadied against yen on Friday as investors digested inflation data that increased the likelihood of interest rates remaining restrictive for longer. Investors also assessed the latest inflation data out of China, which showed consumer prices faltered and factory-gate prices shrank slightly faster than expected in September, Investors will next focus on remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell who is due to speak on Oct. 19, just before the U.S. central bank’s blackout period begins ahead of its next interest-rate decision. The Fed next meets Oct. 31-Nov. 1. Strong resistance can be seen at 149.23 (5DMA).an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.66(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 147.90 (38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 147.27 (Oct 3rd low).
Equities Recap
European stocks slipped on Friday after U.S. inflation data fuelled concerns about interest rates staying higher for longer, while weak inflation data from China added to jitters about the global economy.
At (GMT 12:16),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last down at 0.40 percent, Germany's Dax down by 0.90 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.94 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Friday, set to mark their best week since mid-March as U.S. bond yields lowered, increasing the appeal of U.S. dollar-backed bullion as markets price in a chance that Fed’s rate increase cycle has come to an end.
Spot gold rose nearly 1% to $1,886.40 per ounce by 0932 GMT. U.S. gold futures added 0.9% to $1,899.20.
Oil prices leapt $3 on Friday after the U.S. tightened its sanctions programme against Russian crude exports, raising supply concerns in an already tight market, with global inventories forecast to decline through the fourth quarter.
Brent futures rose $2.88 to $88.88 per barrel as of 1050 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained $2.91 to $85.82 a barrel. Both benchmarks had earlier risen more than $3.