Posted at 13 October 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Consumer prices rise on gasoline and shelter costs
•Bets on Fed December rate hike rise after inflation data
•Israel says no exceptions to Gaza siege unless hostages freed
•US Sep CPI (MoM) 0.4%, 0.3% forecast , 0.6% previous
•US Sep Core CPI (YoY) 4.1%,4.1% forecast , 4.3% previous
•US Sep Core CPI (MoM) 0.3%, 0.3% forecast , 0.3% previous
•US Sep CPI Index, n.s.a. 307.79, 307.39 forecast , 307.03 previous
•US Sep CPI (YoY) 3.7%,3.6% forecast , 3.7% previous
•US Sep Core CPI Index 310.66, 309.66 previous
•US CPI, n.s.a (MoM) 0.25%, 0.44% previous
•US Sep CPI Index, s.a 307.48, 306.27 previous
•US Sep Real Earnings (MoM) -0.2%,-0.1% previous
•US Sep Initial Jobless Claims 209K,210K forecast , 207K previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,702K , 1,680K forecast ,1,664K previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 206.25K, 208.75K previous
• US Sep Cleveland CPI (MoM) 0.5% , 0.3% previous
• US Crude Oil Inventories 10.176M , 0.492M forecast , -2.224M previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•No data ahead
Looking Ahead Events and Other Release GMT)
•No Significant Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro declined on Thursday after data showed U.S. consumer prices increased more than expected in September. U.S. consumer prices (CPI) rose 0.4% in September compared to forecasts of a 0.3% rise from economists polled . On an annual basis, CPI rose to 3.7% versus estimates of 3.6%. Minutes from the European Central Bank's September meeting, released on Thursday, showed a division among policymakers when they opted to raise the deposit rate to a record 4%, but signalled an end to the tightening cycle. The dollar index , a measure of the U.S. currency against six others, jumped 0.85% to 106.550 in its biggest single-day gain since March 15.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0571(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0593(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0535(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0458(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound declined against Thursday as sluggish UK GDP data and stronger dollar weighed on sterling .Britain's economy partially recovered in August after a sharp drop in July but the bigger picture remained one of only sluggish growth after last year's surge in inflation and 14 back-to-back interest rate hikes by the Bank of England. Official data showed the economy expanded by 0.2% in August from July, in line with poll of economists. The last time the economy shrank by more than that in a month was in June 2022, impacted by a one-off holiday to mark the late Queen Elizabeth's 70 years on the throne. Sterling fell 0.15% on the day to $1.2296, retreating from a three-week high touched on Wednesday against the greenback. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2253(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2352( 61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2174 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2060(23.6%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened to a six-day low against its broadly stronger U.S. counterpart on Thursday as bond yields jumped after hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data. Greenback rallied against a basket of major currencies after data showed consumer prices in the world’s largest economy came in higher than expected, suggesting that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates one more time this year. Adding to pressure on the loonie, the price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, settled 0.7% lower at $82.91 a barrel after data showed a large build in U.S. crude stockpiles.The loonie was trading 0.7% lower at 1.3690 to the greenback, after touching its weakest intraday level since Friday at 1.37. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3701(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3750(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3649(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3627(5DMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar steadied against yen on Thursday as greenback ticked higher on expectations of tighter U.S. monetary policy following hotter-than-expected inflation data.Headline U.S. consumer prices increased more than expected in September as rent and gasoline prices rose, leading traders to boost bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike in December.Traders now see a 38% probability of a rate hike in December from the Fed, according to CME Fed watch tool, compared with about a 28% chance seen before the report. Investors were also carefully monitoring developments in the Middle East. Gaza moved closer to a humanitarian catastrophe as the death toll rose and vital supplies ran low. Strong resistance can be seen at 150.00 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.00 (Oct 3rd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.13 (5DMA)a break below could take the pair towards 148.95(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks pared early gains on Thursday after U.S. September inflation rose by more than expected, while Novo Nordisk's kidney drug trial success helped lift Denmark's benchmark index to a record high.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.32 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.23 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.37 percent.
Wall Street's main indexes closed lower on Thursday after a U.S. Treasury auction sent bond yields higher while investors were already digesting data that showed consumer prices rose more than anticipated in September.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.51 % percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.62% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.63% percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields rose on Thursday after data showed U.S. consumer prices increased more than expected in September.
The benchmark yield rose as high as 4.728%, its highest-level since Friday after falling for the last two days.
Commoditise Recap
Gold prices eased on Thursday as dollar and Treasury yields ticked higher after U.S. consumer prices rose more than expected in September and raised worries that the Federal Reserve could keep rates higher for some time.
Spot gold fell 0.3% to $1,868.79 per ounce by 3:04 p.m. ET (1904 GMT), after hitting its highest level since Sept. 27 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures settled 0.2% lower at $1,883.
Oil prices reversed early gains on Thursday in a volatile session, after a large build in U.S. crude stockpiles outweighed expectations that U.S. interest rates had peaked.
Brent futures settled up 18 cents to $86.00 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 58 cents to $82.91 a barrel. Prices had risen more than $1 a barrel earlier in the session.