Posted at 12 October 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Aug Manufacturing Production (MoM) -0.8%, -0.4% forecast, -0.8% previous
•UK Aug Construction Output (MoM) -0.5%, 0.2% forecast, -0.5% previous
•UK Aug Industrial Production (YoY) 1.3%, 1.7% forecast,0.4% previous
• U.K. Aug Construction Output (YoY) 2.3%,2.6% forecast, 2.8% previous
• U.K. Aug Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
• U.K. Aug GDP (MoM) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, -0.5% previous
• U.K. Aug Manufacturing Production (YoY) 2.8%,3.4% forecast, 3.0% previous
• U.K. Aug GDP (YoY) 0.5%,0.5% forecast ,0.3% previous
• U.K. Aug Trade Balance -15.95B,-14.70B forecast , -14.06B previous
• U.K. Aug Industrial Production (MoM) -0.7%, -0.2% forecast , -0.7% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Sep CPI (MoM) 0.3% forecast , 0.6% previous
•12:30 US Sep Core CPI (YoY) 4.1% forecast , 4.3% previous
•12:30 US Sep Core CPI (MoM) 0.3% forecast , 0.3% previous
•12:30 US Sep CPI Index, n.s.a. 307.39 forecast , 307.03 previous
•12:30 US Sep CPI (YoY) 3.6% forecast , 3.7% previous
•12:30 US Sep Core CPI Index 309.66 previous
•12:30 US CPI, n.s.a (MoM) 0.44% previous
•12:30 US Sep CPI Index, s.a 306.27 previous
•12:30 US Sep Real Earnings (MoM) -0.1% previous
•12:30 US Sep Initial Jobless Claims 210K forecast , 207K previous
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,680K forecast ,1,664K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 208.75K previous
• 15:00 US Sep Cleveland CPI (MoM) 0.3% previous
• 15:00 US US Crude Oil Inventories 0.492M forecast , -2.224M previous
• 15:00 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 0.132M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthen against dollar on Thursday ahead of U.S. inflation data that will help shape the Federal Reserve's next policy steps, a day after the release of minutes from the Fed's last meeting showed policymakers taking a cautious stance. September's U.S. consumer price index data, which is expected to show inflation moderated last month, is due at 1230 GMT. The dollar's recent weakness has been driven by declining Treasury yields as bond prices rallied on the Fed's softer stance on future rate rises.The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, was at 105.69, broadly flat on the day, but not far from 105.53, its lowest since Sept. 25 touched earlier in the day. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0636 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0680(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0547(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0458(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound edged lower on Thursday, off a three-week high after data showed Britain’s economy only partially recovered in August after a sharp drop in the prior month. Official data showed the economy expanded by 0.2% in August from July, in line with a poll of economists.After last year’s surge in inflation and 14 back-to-back interest rate hikes by the Bank of England (BoE), Britain is seeing only sluggish growth. Money markets are pricing no more rate hikes by the BoE after the central bank didn’t raise its benchmark interest rate in September.Sterling fell 0.15% on the day to $1.2296, retreating from a three-week high touched on Wednesday against the greenback. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2331(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2352( 50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2234(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2175(Oct 9th low).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar declined against Swiss franc on Thursday ahead of U.S. inflation data that will help shape the Federal Reserve's next policy steps, a day after the release of minutes from the Fed's last meeting showed policymakers taking a cautious stance. September's U.S. consumer price index data, which is expected to show inflation moderated last month, is due at 1230 GMT.A downside surprise to inflation will likely support the case for the Fed having finished its tightening cycleThe dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, was at 105.69, broadly flat on the day, but not far from 105.53, its lowest since Sept. 25 touched earlier in the day. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9040(Oct 11th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9080(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8985(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8921 (50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar was little changed against yen on Thursday as minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve's last policy meeting indicated rates may have peaked, although caution prevailed ahead of key inflation data that may offer further rate clues. Minutes of the Fed's last policy meeting showed that uncertainty around the path of the U.S. economy pushed policymakers into adopting a cautious stance last month. That was backed by recent dovish comments from Fed officials, suggesting U.S. rates may have peaked. Investors are now awaiting the U.S. inflation data for September, due at 1230 GMT, to see if the Fed's interest rate campaign has had the desired effect on the economy and for further clues on the monetary policy trajectory. Strong resistance can be seen at 149.23 (5DMA).an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.66(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 147.90 (38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 147.27 (Oct 3rd low).
Equities Recap
European stocks hit three-week highs on Thursday, supported by a fresh round of declines in Treasury yields as investors took comfort from dovish views from Federal Reserve officials.
At (GMT 12:06),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last up at 0.62 percent, Germany's Dax up by 0.52 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.35 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices rose about 1% on Thursday, reversing earlier falls, on expectations that U.S. interest rates had peaked, but a lower demand growth forecast for next year from the International Energy Agency and higher U.S. inventories limited further gains.
Brent futures rose $1.01, or 1.20%, to $86.83 a barrel at 0952 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 73 cents, or 0.90%, to $84.22 a barrel.
Gold extended gains to a two-week high on Thursday, as the dollar and Treasury yields ticked down on the Federal Reserve’s cautious tilt in tone ahead of a U.S. inflation print that could offer further rate cues.
Spot gold was up 0.5% at $1,882.59 per ounce by 1138 GMT, its highest level since Sept. 27. U.S. gold futures were up 0.4% at $1,895.40.