Posted at 11 October 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German Sep HICP (MoM) 0.2% ,0.2% forecast,0.4% previous
•German Sep German HICP (YoY) 4.3%, 4.3% forecast,6.4% previous
•German Sep CPI (MoM) 0.3%,0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
•German Sep CPI (YoY) 4.5%, 4.5% forecast,6.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Sep PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (MoM) 0.3% previous
•12:30 US PPI (MoM) 0.3% forecast, 0.7% previous
•12:30 US Sep Core PPI (MoM) (Sep) 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
•12:30 US Sep Core PPI (YoY) 2.3% forecast,,2.2% previous
•12:30 US Sep PPI (YoY) 1.6% forecast, 1.6% previous
•12:30 Canada Aug Building Permits (MoM) 0.5% forecast, -1.5% previous
•12:30 US Sep PPI (MoM) 0.3% forecast, 0.7% previous
•12:30 Canada Sep Core PPI (MoM) 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
•12:30 US Sep Core PPI (YoY) 2.3% forecast, 2.2% previous
•12:30 US Sep PPI (YoY) 1.6% forecast, 1.6% previous
•12:30 US Sep PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (YoY) 3.0% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•16:15 US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
•18:00 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged up on Wednesday as traders trained their sights on the release of Federal Reserve minutes later on Wednesday and a key inflation print the next day for hints on the future path for interest rates .All eyes are now on the minutes of the Fed's September policy meeting, due later in the day, as well as inflation data (CPI) for September on Thursday, both of which will provide further clues on the rate outlook. The dollar index , which tracks the currency against six major peers, was trading roughly flat at 105.76. It has fallen around 1.6% since hitting an 11-month high of 107.34 last week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0616 (50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0680(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0547(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0458(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound held steady on Wednesday, recovering some stability after an intensely volatile week that has been dominated by safe-haven flows on the back of violence in Israel and by a sudden shift in expectations for interest rates. Sterling is nudging at three-week highs against the dollar and the euro. The rally has been down, in part, to investors re-evaluating their expectations for U.S. interest rates and for the outlook for euro zone growth, rather than down to any standout UK-centric factor. The pound was last flat at $1.2283 against the dollar and down 0.1% against the euro at 86.40, providing sterling traders with some respite from some of the big price swings seen earlier this week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2306( Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2352( 50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2261(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2164(23.6%fib).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar declined against Swiss franc on Wednesday as investors awaited the minutes of the Federal Reserve's recent policy meeting for insights into the path of interest rates. The minutes from the Fed's September meeting, when it chose to hold interest rates at 5.25% to 5.5% but signalled more hikes might be on the way, are due to be released at 1800 GMT (2 p.m. ET). Investors will scrutinise them for hints about where U.S. rates are heading.On Thursday, the latest U.S. inflation data is expected to show that the growth in prices slowed slightly to 3.6% in September, from 3.7% in August. The dollar dipped to nearly a two-week trough against a basket of currencies, tracking a slide in U.S. Treasury yields that have retreated from their 2007 highs scaled last week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9080(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9137(Oct 10th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9006(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8935 (61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged up against yen on Wednesday as investors awaited minutes from Fed’s Sept meeting later in the day.Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic on Tuesday said the U.S. central bank need not raise borrowing costs further, while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noted it is “possible” that further hikes may not be required. The Fed’s latest policy minutes at 1800 GMT and U.S. inflation data on Thursday will be scanned for more cues on interest rate path.Market participants also keept a close watch on the conflict between Israel and Palestinian Islamist group Hamas. Gold rose 1.6% on Monday as tensions in the Middle East lifted safe-haven demand. Strong resistance can be seen at 149.13 (5DMA).an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.66(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 147.90 (38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 147.27 (Oct 3rd low).
Equities Recap
European stocks inched higher on Wednesday as Novo Nordisk shares jumped after a positive update on its diabetes drug Ozempic, though underwhelming results from French luxury giant LVMH capped gains.
At (GMT 12:30 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last up at 0.27 percent, Germany's Dax up by 0.31 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.15 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices firmed near a more than one-week high on Wednesday as the dollar edged lower after several U.S. Federal Reserve officials suggested that the recent surge in Treasury yields might make further rate hikes less necessary.
Spot gold was 0.1% higher at $1,862.69 per ounce as of 0718 GMT after hitting its highest level since Sept. 29 on Tuesday. U.S. gold futures held their ground at $1,876.
Oil prices edged lower on Wednesday, as fears of disruption to supplies due to conflict in the Middle East receded, at least for the time being.
Brent crude fell 49 cents, or 0.56%, to $87.16 a barrel by 1002 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell by 55 cents, or 0.64%, to $85.42.