Posted at 10 October 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Italian Aug Industrial Production (MoM) 0.2%, 0.0% forecast,-0.7%previous
•Italian Aug Industrial Production (YoY) -4.2%,-5.0% forecast, -2.1% previous
•Greek Aug Industrial Production (YoY) -0.5%,-1.9% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•14:00 US Aug Wholesale Inventories (MoM) -0.1% forecast, -0.2% previous
•14:00 US Aug Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) 0.8% previous
•15:00 US Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.63% previous
•15:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.345% previous
•15:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.340% previous
•17:00 US 3-Year Note Auction 4.660% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•16:30 German Buba Balz Speaks
•17:30 US Fed Waller Speaks
•19:00 FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
•22:00 US FOMC Member Daly Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro ticked up on Tuesday as investors reacted to a sharp drop in U.S. bond yields on the back of dovish Federal Reserve comments, as well as the prospect of stimulus from China. The euro was last up 0.12% against the dollar at $1.0581. Bloomberg reported that China is weighing the issuance of at least 1 trillion yuan ($137.1 billion) of additional sovereign debt for spending to boost its struggling economy, which analysts said helped currencies such as the euro which are seen as more exposed to global growth. The dollar index , which tracks the greenback against six peers, was last up less than 0.1% at 106.05. It remained below last week's 11-month high of 107.34 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0616 (50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0680(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0547(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0458(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling rose on Tuesday, moving further off recent lows and rallying in line with a rebound across markets, as investment flows to safe-haven currencies and assets a day earlier caused by the war in the Middle East reversed somewhat. The pound was 0.5% higher against the Japanese yen at 182.5 yen having fallen a similar amount the day earlier - the yen is typically a beneficiary of a rush to safety in markets - and up 0.2% against the dollar at $1.2265. The British currency has managed something of a comeback in recent days against the dollar, rising for the past five sessions after having its worst month in a year in September. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2271 ( 38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2347 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2164 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2110(Oct 6th low).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar eased against Swiss franc on Tuesday after U.S. Federal Reserve officials suggested a softer outlook for interest rates. Top ranking Federal Reserve officials indicated Monday that rising yields on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, which directly influence financing costs for households and businesses, could steer the Fed from further increases in its short-term policy rate and substitute the work done by financial markets for formal monetary policy moves by the central bank. The remarks by Jefferson and earlier by Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan, one of the Fed system's more influential voices on financial markets, caused investors to undercut the likelihood of further Fed rate increases. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9107 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9147(5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9036(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8965 (61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged up against yen on Tuesday as traders waited for more Fed officials to speak later in the day, as well as minutes from the last Fed meeting to be released on Wednesday and U.S. inflation data on Thursday. The yen was last lower, with the dollar up 0.38% at 149.06 yen. Japan's currency bounced after the Kyodo news agency reported that the Bank of Japan is considering raising its forecast for core consumer inflation this year, but then gave up its gains. Investors were also keeping a close eye on the conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas. The dollar index , which tracks the greenback against six peers, was last up less than 0.1% at 106.05. Strong resistance can be seen at 149.13 (5DMA).an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.66(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 147.90 (38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 147.27 (Oct 3rd low).
Equities Recap
European stocks rebounded sharply on Tuesday as dovish comments from U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers bolstered sentiment a day after the conflict in the Middle East sparked a rush to safe assets.
At (GMT 12:30 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last up at 1.51 percent, Germany's Dax down by 1.46 percent, France’s CAC was up by 1.34 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged down on Tuesday after clocking a sharp rise in the last session as risk sentiment improved and bond yields rebounded, while investors awaited the U.S. inflation data due later this week.
Spot gold climbed to $1,865.19 per ounce, its highest since Sept. 29, earlier in the day and was last down 0.3% at $1,855.10 by 1217 GMT.U.S. gold futures climbed 0.2% to $1,868.70.
Oil prices eased on Tuesday after rallying more than 4% in the previous session, with traders cautious as they watched for potential supply disruptions amid military clashes between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas.
Brent crude fell 36 cents to $87.79 a barrel by 0805 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude eased 35 cents to $86.03 a barrel. Both benchmarks had fallen by more than $1 in earlier trading before recovering slightly.