Posted at 09 October 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German Aug Industrial Production (MoM) -0.2%, -0.1% forecast, -0.8% previous
•German Aug Industrial Production (YoY) -1.75%, -1.70% previous
•EU Oct Sentix Investor Confidence -21.9,-24.0 forecast,-21.5 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.773% previous
•13:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.828% previous
•13:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.787% previous
•14:00 US Sep CB Employment Trends Index 113.02 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•13:15 US Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks
•17:30 US Fed Governor Jefferson Speaks
•20:00 UK BoE MPC Member Mann
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined on Monday as safe-haven dollar rose as military clashes between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas deepened political uncertainty across the Middle East.Risk sentiment was fragile after Israeli forces fought gunmen from the Palestinian group Hamas over the weekend, hours after the militants launched an attack on Israel in the deadliest day of violence in the country for 50 years. The dollar also drew support from Friday's data showing U.S. employment increased by the most in eight months in September, potentially setting up for a higher-than-expected inflation print later this week. The euro and sterling each fell 0.5% against the broadly strengthening dollar. The euro dropped to $1.0531 against dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0607 (50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0680(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0547(c), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0471(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling fell against a strengthening dollar on Monday but was still within striking distance of last week's 1-1/2 week high as recent economic data provided some reason for optimism about the UK's economic outlook.The safe-haven dollar rose as increased violence in the Middle East spooked markets, after a blowout U.S. jobs report gave the currency a leg up. Some analysts argued that last week's economic figures from the UK have provided some grounds for optimism.The final reading of the S&P Global UK Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) hit an 8-month low but was better than a preliminary "flash" reading of 47.2.Investors see little chance of another BoE rate hike at the next policy meeting in November, but they are pencilling in one more rate increase in 2024. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2245 ( 50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2325 (61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2164 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2142(23.6%fib).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar eased against Swiss franc on Monday after the attack on Israel by Palestinian group Hamas drove up safe haven Swiss franc . Israel's troops were fighting to recapture its towns from Hamas gunmen on Monday, acknowledging the battle was taking longer than expected more than two days after the militants burst across the fence from Gaza on a deadly rampage. Global investors turned risk averse as military clashes between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas deepened political uncertainty across the Middle East and raised oil supply concerns. The conflict in the Middle East comes at a time when markets are jittery and bond yields around the world are at multi-year highs. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8767 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9195(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9076(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9000 (Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged up against yen on Monday as dramatic clashes between Israeli and Hamas forces over the weekend raised the risk of a wider Middle East conflict and boosted demand for dollar. Hamas fighters rampaged through Israeli towns as the country suffered its bloodiest day in decades on Saturday. Israel battered Palestinians with air strikes in Gaza on Sunday, with hundreds reportedly killed on both sides. The spiralling violence between Israel and Hamas threatens to start a major new war in the Middle East, sending oil prices higher and boosting the demand for safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries, the dollar and the Japanese yen along with gold. Strong resistance can be seen at 149.73 (23.6%fib).an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.23(Oct 3rd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen 148.43 (21DMA)a break below could take the pair towards 147.90(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks came under pressure on Monday as military clashes in the Middle East sparked a rush to safe-haven assets such as bonds and gold, while also boosting oil prices by about 3%.
At (GMT 12:02 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading falt at 0.00 percent, Germany's Dax down by 0.88 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.64 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose more than 1% on Monday as the military conflict between Israeli forces and Palestinian Islamist group Hamas raised political uncertainty in the Middle East, prompting safe-haven buying of investments like bullion.
Spot gold jumped almost 1% to $1,849.10 per ounce by 1132 GMT, having hit its highest level in a week. U.S. gold futures also climbed 1% to $1,863.40.
Crude oil prices spiked higher in the wake of a massive Hamas attack on Israel, but the relatively modest increase masks the risk of an escalating Middle East conflict.
Brent crude rose by as much as $4 a barrel at one point and last traded up around $3, or 3.55%, at $87.61.