Posted at 06 October 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Sep Halifax House Price Index (MoM) -0.4%, -0.8% forecast,-1.9% previous
•UK Sep Halifax House Price Index (YoY) -4.7% forecast, -4.6% previous
•German Factory Orders (MoM) 3.9%, 1.8% forecast, -11.7% previous
•French Aug Trade Balance -8.2B,-8.9B forecast,-8.1B previous
•French Aug French Imports 59.0B, 60.7B previous
•French Aug French Exports 50.8B forecast, 52.6B previous
Looking Ahead Economic data(GMT)
•12:30 US Sep U6 Unemployment Rate 7.1% previous
•12:30 Canada Sep Participation Rate 65.5% previous
•12:30 Canada Sep Unemployment Rate 5.6% forecast,5.5% previous
•12:30 Canada Sep Sep Avg hourly wages Permanent employee 5.2% previous
•12:30 Canada Sep Part Time Employment Change 7.8K previous
•12:30 Canada Sep Full Employment Change 32.2K previous
•12:30 Canada Sep Employment Change 20.0K forecast, 39.9K previous
•12:30 US Sep Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
•12:30 US Sep Participation Rate 62.8% previous
•12:30 US Sep Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) 4.3% forecast, 4.3% previous
•12:30 US Sep Unemployment Rate 3.7% forecast, 3.8% previous
•12:30 US Sep Government Payrolls 8.0K previous
•12:30 US Sep Average Weekly Hours 34.4 forecast, 34.4 previous
•12:30 US Sep Private Nonfarm Payrolls 160K forecast,179K previous
•12:30 US Sep Nonfarm Payrolls 170K forecast ,187K previous
•12:30 US Sep Manufacturing Payrolls 5K forecast , 16K previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 502 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 623 previous
•19:00 US Aug Consumer Credit 11.70B forecast , 10.40B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Friday as the dollar was on back foot as traders braced for U.S. payrolls data that could throw light on the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates. All eyes will be on the U.S. jobs data for clues on whether the Fed will raise interest rates once more in November. The report is expected to show that nonfarm payrolls increased by 170,000 jobs last month after rising 187,000 in August and that wage gains remained elevated. The European common currency was last up a fraction on the day at $1.0575, moving off Tuesday's 10-month low of $1.0448 but still set for a further small weekly decline making that streak the longest since its launch in 1999. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0543 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0552(5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0460 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0400(Psychological level).
GBP/USD: Sterling ticked a fraction higher against the dollar on Friday ahead of key U.S. jobs data, while traders continue to digest the possibility that the Bank of England's might be done with its most extensive rate-hiking cycle in decades.At 11:30 GMT, the pound was 0.1% higher against the dollar at $1.2210 .The pound has weakened against the dollar in recent weeks, as a stronger-than-expected U.S. economy led to bets that U.S. interest rates could rise further. Conversely, the Bank of England seems to be nearing the end of its tightening cycle. Traders are now placing a 73% chance of no change in rates at the Bank of England's next policy meeting on November 2 - a continuation of the pause at the last meeting - and an outside chance of a 25 bps hike. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2171(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2218 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2105 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2051(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar declined against Swiss franc on Friday investors awaited U.S. non-farm payrolls data that throw light on US interest rate outlook. Markets await the release of U.S. non-farm payrolls data at 1230 GMT, following a string of jobs indicators released this week. Data on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose moderately last week, while layoffs declined in September. U.S. trade deficit shrank to its smallest in nearly three years in August, with exports of capital goods hitting a record high. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9161 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9211(23..6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9114(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9033(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against yen on Friday ahead of a keenly-awaited U.S. jobs report that will be crucial in shaping interest rate expectations. Analysts said U.S. jobs growth is likely to have slowed moderately in September while unemployment probably retreated from a 1-1/2-year high, underscoring the economy's underlying strength amid rising headwinds as the year winds down. Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to increase 170,000 in September, with unemployment seen dipping to 3.7% from 3.8%. The dollar index was steady on Friday at 106.38 .Strong resistance can be seen at 149.29(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.09 (Oct 3rd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen 148.77(14DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 148.18 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares advanced at the end of a turbulent week, with traders bracing for U.S. payrolls data that could throw light on the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates.
At (GMT 12:02 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.39 percent, Germany's Dax up by 0.74 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.64 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were stuck in a tight range on Friday, hovering near seven-month lows, as investors held back from making big bets ahead of U.S. non-farm payrolls data that could influence the Federal Reserve interest rate path.
Spot gold was flat at $1,820.60 per ounce by 0940 GMT, but was on track for its second straight week of decline, down 1.5% so far this week, as elevated Treasury yields and a firm dollar dented bullion's appeal.U.S. gold futures were up 0.2% to $1,834.80.
Oil prices were stable on Friday but were on course for a week-on-week loss, as demand fears driven by macroeconomic headwinds were compounded by another partial lifting of Russia's fuel export ban on Friday.
On Friday, Brent futures were up 15 cents, or 0.18%, at $84.22 at 0817 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 20 cents, or 0.24%, at $82.51.