Posted at 05 October 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• German Aug Trade Balance 16.6B,15.0B, forecast,15.9B previous
• German Aug German Imports (MoM) -0.4%,0.5% forecast, 1.4% previous
• German Aug German Exports (MoM) -1.2%,-0.4% forecast,-0.9% previous
• German Aug French Industrial Production (MoM) -0.3%,-0.4% forecast, 0.8% previous
• Spanish Aug Industrial Production (YoY) -3.4%, -2.1% forecast, -1.8% previous
•UK Sep Construction PMI 45.0 ,49.9 forecast,50.8 previous
•UK Housing Equity Withdrawal (QoQ)-23.2B, -14.5B forecast,-22.9B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,675K forecast, 1,670K previous
•12:30 US Imports 316.70B previous
•12:30 US Exports 251.66B previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 211.00K previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 210K forecast,204K previous
•12:30 US Aug Trade Balance -62.30B forecast,-65.00B previous
•12:30 Canada Aug Trade Balance -1.50B forecast, -0.99B previous
•12:30 Canada Aug Exports 60.42B previous
•12:30 Canada Aug Imports 61.40B previous
•14:00 Canada Sep Ivey PMI n.s.a 56.8 previous
•14:00 Canada Sep Ivey PMI 50.8 forecast,53.5 previous
•14:30 US Natural Gas Storage 92B forecast, 90B previous
•15:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 5.290% previous
•15:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction 5.330% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•15:30 US FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
•16:00 US FOMC Member Daly Speaks
•16:15 US Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks
•20:30 US Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release (GMT)
•No significant events
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Thursday as the dollar stalled after cooler-than-expected U.S. private payrolls data, leading investors to reduce bets the Federal Reserve will hike rates again this year.After touching an 11-month high earlier this week, the dollar index , which tracks the greenback against six other currencies including the euro and yen, edged 0.07% lower to 106.68 after Wednesday's data showed U.S. private payrolls increased far less than expected in September. The euro was up 0.13% at $1.0518, having fallen on Tuesday to its lowest level this year at $1.0448. The single currency has dropped more than 14% against the dollar over the past three months. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0543 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0552(5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0460 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0400(Psychological level).
GBP/USD: The pound initially gained against the dollar but gave up some ground after data showed the biggest slump in UK construction activity since 2020, while a Bank of England survey showed British firms see prices rising more slowly.The S&P Global/CIPS UK construction Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) tumbled to 45.0 in September from August's 50.8, its lowest since May 2020, when COVID-19 pandemic restrictions were in full force. The figure was well below the 50 level that separates contraction from expansion. Economists polled had forecast a much more modest decline to 49.9. Sterling was up about 0.1% against the dollar at $1.2148, holding just above Wednesday's 6-1/2 month low of $1.20385. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2171(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2218 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2105 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2051(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar eased against Swiss franc on Thursday as softer U.S. labour data helped pull dollar lower. Data on Thursday showed U.S. private payrolls increased far less than expected in September. Markets now await the Labor Department’s more comprehensive employment report on Friday. Traders are now looking to U.S. jobs data to give clues as to whether the bonds sell-off will continue. U.S. initial jobless claims are due later on Thursday, followed by non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9233 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9288(23..6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9144(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9110(Oct 2nd low).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against yen on Thursday as analysts speculated that Japanese authorities may have intervened to support the currency. The yen's sharp recovery after breaching the 150-line sparked speculation earlier this week of intervention to support the currency, but Bank of Japan money market data indicated on Thursday that most likely Japanese authorities didn't intervene.Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki on Wednesday declined to comment on whether Tokyo had stepped in, and repeated that currency rates must move stably, reflecting fundamentals. Dollar was lower 0.13% against the yen. It hit 150.165 on Tuesday, its highest since October 2022. Strong resistance can be seen at 149.29(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.09 (Oct 3rd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen 148.77(14DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 148.18 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares regained some poise on Thursday after a three-day selloff, as retreating government bond yields and an overnight slump in oil prices relieved some pressure on equity investors.
At (GMT 12:13 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.58 percent, Germany's Dax up by 0.22 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.25 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices held steady on Thursday as Treasury yields pulled back from 16-year highs and investors awaited U.S. jobs data for more clarity on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path.
Spot gold was steady at $1,822.14 per ounce by 1020 GMT. U.S. gold futures gained 0.1% to $1,836.30.
Oil prices fell by more than $1 on Thursday, extending the previous session's sharp losses as an uncertain demand outlook overshadowed any boost from an OPEC+ panel maintaining oil output cuts to keep supply tight.
Brent crude oil futures dropped $1.19 to $84.62 a barrel by 1045 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude were $1.31 lower at $82.91.