Posted at 04 October 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Italian Sep Composite PMI 49.2,48.2 previous
•Italian Sep Services PMI 49.9,50.0 forecast,49.8 previous
•French Sep S&P Global Composite PMI 44.1,43.5 forecast,46.0 previous
•French Sep Services PMI 44.4,43.9 forecast, 46.0 previous
•German Sep Composite PMI 46.4,46.2 forecast,44.6 previous
•German Sep German Services PMI 50.3,49.8 forecast,47.3 previous
•EU Sep Services PMI 48.7,48.4 forecast,47.9 previous
•EU Sep S&P Global Composite PMI 47.2,47.1 forecast,46.7 previous
•UK Sep Services PMI 49.3,47.2 forecast,49.5 previous
•UK Sep Composite PMI 48.5,46.8 forecast,48.6 previous
•EU Aug PPI (YoY) -11.5%,-11.6% forecast,-7.6% previous
•EU Aug Retail Sales (YoY) -2.1%,-1.2% forecast, -1.0% previous
•EU Aug Retail Sales (MoM) -1.2%,-0.3% forecast, -0.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:45 US Sep S&P Global Composite PMI 50.1 forecast,50.2 previous
•13:45 US Sep Services PMI 50.2 forecast,50.5 previous
•14:00 US Sep ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity 56.5 forecast,57.3 previous
•14:00 US Sep ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders 57.5 previous
•14:00 US Sep ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment 54.7 previous
•14:00 US Sep ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices 58.9 previous
•14:00 US Aug Factory Orders (MoM) 0.2% forecast,-2.1% previous
•14:00 US Aug Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) 0.4% previous
•14:00 US Aug Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) -0.7% previous
•14:00 US Aug Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) 0.8% previous
•14:00 US Sep ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 53.6 forecast,54.5 previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -0.446M forecast,-2.170M previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Imports 1.767M previous
•14:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -0.943M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•14:00 ECB's Panetta Speaks
•15:25 US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
•16:00 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against dollar on Wednesday after German service sector activity edges up in Sept. Activity in Germany's services sector edged up slightly in September, following a drop the month before, a survey showed on Wednesday. The HCOB final services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.3 in September from to 47.3 in August, rising back above the 50 level that signals growth in activity. The euro rose 0.41% to $1.0509. But it did not stray far from Tuesday's low of $1.0448, its weakest level since December, triggering talk of a fall back to $1. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0518 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0546(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0460 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0427(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound rose against the dollar for the first time in almost a week on Wednesday, in line with a retreat in the U.S. currency, and after a survey showed UK business activity was less subdued than initially feared in September. The final reading of S&P Global UK Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell in September to 49.3 from 49.5 in August, further below the 50 threshold for growth.The reading was an eight-month low, but it topped a preliminary reading of 47.2 that shocked investors earlier in September. Sterling was last up 0.4% on the day against the dollar at $1.2123. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2151(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2177 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2066 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2033(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar eased against Swiss franc on Wednesday after rising over the previous two days, boosted by upbeat data on Tuesday showing U.S. job openings unexpectedly increased in August. The greenback has rallied around 3.5% over the last three months, boosted by a sharp rise in U.S. bond yields as growth has stayed strong and the Fed looks set to keep interest rates high for longer than previously expected. Markets are pricing in a 44% chance of another 25-basis-point rate hike this year, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The investor focus remains on U.S. non-farm payrolls data on Friday for cues on the Fed’s rate hike path. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9233 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9252(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9182(5DMA ), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9140(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against yen on Wednesday on speculation that Japanese authorities could have intervened to support the currency. The Japanese currency was up around 0.12% at 148.93 per dollar in early European trading, after unexpectedly surging nearly 2% at one point on Tuesday to 147.30. The spike came after it slipped to 150.165 per dollar, its weakest since October 2022. Japan's top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, said he would not comment on whether Tokyo intervened in the exchange rate market overnight, although he said that we have only taken steps that have the understanding of U.S. authorities. Strong resistance can be seen at 149.89(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.09 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.04(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 148.18 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks slipped on Wednesday, hurt by a relentless rally in U.S. and European bond yields as investors came to terms with a higher-for-longer interest rate regime.
At (GMT 12:13 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.20 percent, Germany's Dax up by 0.29 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.41 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold held near a seven-month low on Wednesday, while palladium slipped to its weakest level since late 2018, as a sell-off in the U.S. bond markets lifted yields after economic data raised worries that interest rates will likely remain high.
Spot gold was steady at $1,822.20 per ounce by 0948 GMT, while U.S. gold futures dropped 0.2% to $1,838.40.
Oil fell on Wednesday, as pledges by Saudi Arabia and Russia to continue crude output cuts to the end of 2023 were offset by demand fears stemming from macroeconomic headwinds.
Brent crude oil futures were down $1.51, or 1.66%, to $89.41 a barrel at 1206 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) fell $1.59, or 1.78%, to $87.64 per barrel.