Posted at 02 October 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Nationwide HPI (MoM) 0.0%, -0.4% forecast ,-0.8% previous
•UK Nationwide HPI (YoY) -5.3%, -5.7% forecast ,-5.3% previous
•Sweden Sep Manufacturing PMI 43.3, 45.8 previous
•Swiss Aug Retail Sales (YoY) -1.8%,-1.8% forecast ,-0.6% previous
•Spanish Unemployment Change-12.2K,24.8K previous
•Spanish Sep Manufacturing PMI 47.7,46.5 forecast ,46.5 previous
• Italian Sep Manufacturing PMI 46.8,45.7 forecast ,45.4 previous
•French Sep Manufacturing PMI 44.2,43.6 forecast ,46.0 previous
•German Sep Manufacturing PMI 39.6 ,39.8 forecast ,39.1 previous
•Greek Sep Manufacturing PMI 50.3, 52.9 previous
•EU Sep Manufacturing PMI 43.4,43.4 forecast ,43.5 previous
•Italian Aug)Monthly Unemployment Rate 7.3%,7.7% forecast ,7.6% previous
•UK Sep Manufacturing PMI 44.3,44.2 forecast ,43.0 previous
•EU Aug Unemployment Rate 6.4%,6.4% forecast ,6.4% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:55 French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.789% previous
•12:55 French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.822% previous
•12:55 French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.824% previous
•13:30 Canada Sep Manufacturing PMI 48.0 previous
•13:45 US Sep Manufacturing PMI 48.9 forecast ,47.9 previous
•14:00 US Sep SM Manufacturing New Orders Index 46.8 previous
•14:00 US Sep ISM Manufacturing Employment 48.3 forecast ,48.5 previous
•14:00 US Sep ISM Manufacturing PMI 47.7 forecast ,47.6 previous
•14:00 US Aug Construction Spending (MoM) 0.5% forecast ,0.7% previous
•14:00 US Sep ISM Manufacturing Prices 48.6 forecast ,48.4 previous
•15:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.330% previous
•15:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.315% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•15:00 UK BoE MPC Member Mann
•15:00 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks
•15:00 US FOMC Member Harker Speaks
•17:00 US Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks
•17:30 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined against dollar on Monday after data showed Euro zone manufacturing activity remained mired in a deep and broad-based downturn last month, according to a survey which showed on Monday that demand kept shrinking at a pace rarely surpassed since the data was first collected in 1997.HCOB's final euro zone manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, dipped to 43.4 in September from August's 43.5, matching a preliminary estimate. A reading below 50 marks a contraction in activity. The euro was down 0.4% at $1.0535, after ending the previous quarter with a 3% fall, its worst performance in a year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0597 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0610(5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0513(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0467(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound fell slightly on Monday, continuing a weak run that saw it drop 3.7% in September - its worst monthly performance in a year. There was little in the way of economic data to move markets on Monday although figures showed that British house prices in September were 5.3% lower than a year earlier. Prices were unchanged month-on-month.The final reading of a closely watched UK manufacturing survey showed that activity continued to slow sharply in September, although less steeply than the month before. Sterling was last down 0.14% at $1.2188. Last week it fell to its lowest level since March at $1.2111 before picking up slightly, but it is still up 0.8% for the year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2227(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2246(5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2113 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2073(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar steadied against Swiss franc on Monday as prospects of interest rates staying higher for longer supported dollar. The focus now will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech later in the day as well as on job openings data, private hiring numbers and U.S. nonfarm payrolls over the course of the week. Traders expect the U.S. Federal Reserve will not increase short-term borrowing costs beyond the current range of 5.25%-5.50% after data showed underlying inflation in August continued to ease. The U.S. dollar index edged back towards its recent 10-month high of 106.84 and was last at 106.51, after clocking its best quarterly performance in a year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9167 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9220(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9121(38.2%fib A), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9091(11DMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar steadied against the yen near 150 level on Monday , putting traders on watch for intervention from Japanese authorities. The yen eased to 149.83 per dollar, its weakest in more than 11 months, moving ever closer to the 150 mark that some traders believe could prompt intervention by Tokyo to support the currency. A summary of opinions at the Bank of Japan's September meeting, out on Monday, showed policymakers discussed various factors that must be taken into account when exiting ultra-loose policy, while Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said they were closely watching FX moves with a strong sense of urgency . Strong resistance can be seen at 149.79(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.09 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.04(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 148.18 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks fell on Monday, as the U.S. avoided a federal government shutdown, while Euro zone factory activity stuck in steep downturn.
At (GMT 12:23 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.52 percent, Germany's Dax down by 0.30 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.37 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold fell 1% on Monday, languishing near seven-month lows to kick off the last quarter of the year, as a stronger U.S. dollar and prospects of interest rates staying higher for longer erode bullion’s appeal.
Spot gold was down 0.9% by 0933 GMT to $1,831.81 per ounce, its lowest since March 10. U.S. gold futures slipped 1% to $1,847.50.
Oil prices edged up on Monday, recouping some of the losses suffered at the end of last week, as investors focused on a tight global supply outlook while a last-minute deal that avoided a U.S. government shutdown restored risk appetite.
Brent December crude futures rose 25 cents, or 0.3%, to $92.45 a barrel by 0415 GMT after falling 90 cents on Friday. Brent November futures settled down 7 cents at $95.31 a barrel at the contract's expiry on Friday.