Posted at 28 September 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German Sep CPI (YoY) 4.2%,5.9%forecast, 5.8% previous
•Spanish Sep CPI (MoM) 0.2%,0.3% forecast, 0.5% previous
•Spanish Sep HICP (YoY) 3.2%,3.3% forecast, 2.4% previous
•German Sep CPI (YoY) 5.6%,6.8% forecast, 6.7% previous
•EU Sep CPI (MoM) 0.3%,0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous
•EU Sep CPI (YoY) 4.7%, 6.0% forecast ,6.1% previous
•EU Sep CPI (MoM) 0.3%, 0.3% forecast , 0.4% previous
•EU Sep CPI (YoY) 5.1%,7.0% forecast , 6.8% previous
• EU Sep Industrial Sentiment -9.0,-10.5 forecast ,-10.3 previous
• EU Sep Services Sentiment 4.0,3.5 forecast, 3.9 previous
• EU Sep Consumer Confidence -17.8,-17.8 forecast,-16.0 previous
• EU Sep CPI (YoY) 5.4%, 6.8% forecast, 6.7% previous
•German Sep HICP (MoM) 0.2%,0.3% forecast,0.4% previous
•German Sep German HICP (YoY) 4.3%,4.5% forecast,6.4% previous
•German Sep CPI (MoM) 0.3%, 0.3% forecast,0.3% previous
•German Sep German CPI (YoY) 4.5%,4.6% forecast,6.1% previous
•US Real Consumer Spending (Q2)0.8%, 1.7% forecast,4.2% previous
•US GDP Sales (Q2)2.1%,2.2% forecast,4.2% previous
•US PCE Prices (Q2)2.5%,2.5% forecast,4.1% previous
•US GDP (QoQ) (Q2)2.1%,2.1% forecast,2.0% previous
•US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q2) 1.7%,2.0% forecast,4.1% previous
•US Core PCE Prices (Q2)3.70%,3.70% forecast,4.90% previous
•US Corporate Profits (QoQ) (Q2)-4.1%,1.6% forecast,-5.9% previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims 204K,215K forecast,201K previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims1,670K.1,675K forecast,1,662K previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 211.00K, 217.00K previous
•US Aug Pending Home Sales (MoM) -7.1%,-0.8% forecast,0.9% previous
•US Aug Pending Home Sales Index 71.8 ,77.6 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•14:30 US Natural Gas Storage 88B forecast, 64B previous
•15:00 US KC Fed Composite Index previous
•15:00 US KC Fed Manufacturing Index 12 previous
•15:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 5.280% previous
Looking Ahead Evens And Other Release(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Thursday as dollar retreated as investors digested German inflation and US GDP data .German inflation fell in September to its lowest level since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, signalling what could be the beginning of the end for the high inflation that has weighed heavily on Europe's largest economy.German consumer prices, harmonised to compare with other European Union countries, rose by an annual 4.3% in September, preliminary data from the federal statistics office showed on Thursday. The euro, which has been on the receiving end of the dollar's strength, rebounded somewhat, up 0.33% on the day at $1.0537 on Thursday, but still not far from its January low of $1.0482, a break past which would take it to its lowest this year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0572(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0619(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0503(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0491(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound snapped a six-session losing streak on Thursday as the dollar’s relentless rally paused, but was still on track for a near 4% drop this month as markets trimmed peak rate expectations for the Bank of England. The pound hit a six-month trough of $1.2111 on Wednesday following a 3.8% drop so far this month. It was on track for its biggest monthly fall against the dollar in a year, or since former British Prime Minister Liz Truss’s economic agenda sent UK assets reeling.The pound was last up 0.5% against the greenback at $1.2201, having fallen more than 2% in the previous six trading days, its biggest fall in that timeframe since July.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2186(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2231(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2119 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2067(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar rose against Swiss franc on Thursday as investors assessed US GDP data and awaited Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell's remarks. The U.S. economy maintained a fairly strong pace of growth in the second quarter, the government confirmed on Thursday, and appears to have gathered momentum this quarter amid a resilient labor market.Gross domestic product increased at an unrevised 2.1% annualized rate last quarter, the Commerce Department said in its third estimate of GDP for the April-June period on Thursday. Economists polled had expected GDP for the second quarter would be unrevised. Growth for the first quarter was revised up to a 2.2% rate from the previously reported 2.0% pace. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9220 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9240(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9148(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9136(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar eased slightly against the yen on Thursday as investors avoided making new bets on the pair on fears that Japanese authorities might intervene to support the yen.The Japanese currency has also been weakening sharply, but its softening has been tempered by fears that authorities might intervene to support the currency.The 150 yen per dollar zone is seen by markets as potentially spurring intervention from Japanese authorities it did last year. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Thursday that Japan would not rule out any options if there was any excessive volatility in currency moves, warning against speculative yen moves amid the currency's fall. Strong resistance can be seen at 149.79(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.09 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.04(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 148.18 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares edged lower for a sixth straight day on Thursday in choppy trading, with gains in energy stocks limiting losses, while investors awaited inflation data from Germany, the euro zone's biggest economy.
At (GMT 14:00 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.20 percent, Germany's Dax up by 0.22 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.33 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were subdued on Thursday, having slid to their lowest in about six months in the last session, as an elevated U.S. dollar and Treasury yields continued to exert pressure on the non-yielding metal.
Spot gold was steady at $1,874.29 per ounce by 0939 GMT, hovering near its lowest level since March 13 hit on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures traded at $1,891.30.
Oil prices edged lower on Thursday on growing expectations that key Western economies will maintain high interest rates to tackle stubborn inflation.
By 1312 GMT, Brent crude futures were down 66 cents at $95.89 a barrel after rising to their highest level since last November earlier in the session. The November contract expires on Friday.The December Brent contract was down 65 cents at $93.71 a barrel.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) were 76 cents lower at $92.92 a barrel, after rising above $95 earlier in the session for the first time since August 2022.