Posted at 22 September 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Aug Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.6%,0.6% forecast, -1.4% previous
•UK Aug Retail Sales (MoM) 0.4%,0.5% forecast,-1.2% previous
•UK Aug Core Retail Sales (YoY) -1.4%,-1.3% forecast,-3.4% previous
•UK Aug Retail Sales (YoY) -1.4%,-1.2% forecast,-3.2% previous
• French Sep Manufacturing PMI 43.6,46.0 forecast,46.0 previous
• French Sep French Services PMI 43.9,46.0 forecast,46.0 previous
• French Sep French S&P Global Composite PMI 43.5,46.0 forecast,46.0 previous
•German Sep Manufacturing PMI 39.8,39.5 forecast, 39.1 previous
•German Sep German Composite PMI 46.2,44.8 forecast,44.6 previous
•German Sep German Services PMI 49.8,47.2 forecast,47.3 previous
•UK Sep S&P Global Composite PMI 47.1,46.5 forecast, 46.7 previous
•EU Sep Services PMI 48.4,47.7 forecast,47.9 previous
•EU Sep Manufacturing PMI 43.4,44.0 forecast, 43.5 previous
•UK Manufacturing PMI 44.2, 43.0 forecast, 43.0 previous
•UK Services PMI 47.2, 49.2 forecast, 49.5 previous
•UK Composite PMI 46.8,48.7 forecast, 48.6 previous
Canada Jul Core Retail Sales (MoM) 1.0% ,0.5% forecast, -0.8% previous
Canada Jul Retail Sales (MoM) 0.3% ,0.4% forecast,0.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:45 US Sep Services PMI 50.6 forecast, 50.5 previous
•13:45 US Sep Manufacturing PMI 48.0 forecast, 47.9 previous
•13:45 US Sep S&P Global Composite PMI 50.2 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 515 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 641 previous
Looking Events And Other Release (GMT)
•No Events
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against dollar on Friday as economic data showed a contraction in economic activity, which might lead European Central Bank hawks to soften their policy stance.The HCOB France flash purchasing managers index (PMI) for the services sector fell to a 34-month low in September, well below a Reuters forecast, while the German PMI rose to 46.2 but below the 47.2 forecast by economists. Euro zone inflation is stubbornly high with upside risks, so the ECB’s next move could still be a rate increase before cuts come onto the agenda, several policymakers said on Thursday. . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0663(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0702(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0623(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0579(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling dipped against the dollar on Friday, as weak business activity and retail data kept the currency on the back foot and traders tapered bets on future interest rate hikes after the Bank of England held rates the previous day. The preliminary reading for the services sector dropped to 47.2 from 49.5 in August, further below the 50 dividing line between growth and contraction. Separately, British retail data showed consumer spending partially recovered in August after a rain-soaked July growing 0.4% month-to-month but narrowly missed economist forecasts. The pound was last down 0.3% at $1.22540 and was on track for around a 1% weekly decline. The currency had weakened to its lowest since March on Thursday to $1.22305, after the BoE left rates unchanged at 5.25%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2356(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2403(5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2245 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2221(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar rose against Swiss franc on Friday after the Federal Reserve hardened its hawkish posture on interest rates. The Fed sketched a stricter policy path moving forward in an inflation fight they now see lasting into 2026, but believe they can succeed in lowering inflation without wrecking the economy or leading to large job losses. The dollar stood near a six-month peak on prospects of higher-for-longer U.S. rates, while benchmark 10-year Treasury yields climbed a 16-year high and global equities eyed their worst week in a month. Markets priced in a 45% chance of another rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve before 2024, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9080(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9098(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9003(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8996(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar rose against yen on Friday after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept interest rates in negative territory days after the Federal Reserve signalled U.S. borrowing costs would stay high, piling pressure on the Japanese currency.The BOJ held interest rates at -0.1% on Friday and reiterated its pledge to keep supporting the economy until it is confident inflation will stay at the 2% target. The yen dropped as low as 148.42 to the dollar, nearing the 150-mark at which analysts have said government intervention to prop up the currency is likely. The dollar was last up 0.43% at 148.23 yen. Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Friday he would not rule out any options, warning against a yen sell-off that would hurt the trade-reliant economy. Strong resistance can be seen at 148.64(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.64( Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 147.91 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 146.76 38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares slipped on Friday and were on track to close a week, packed with central banks' decisions, sharply lower as investors assessed the prospects that borrowing costs will remain high for some time.
At (GMT 12:20 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.62 percent, Germany's Dax down by 0.03 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.43 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged higher on Friday following weak economic data out of Europe and a week of key central banks deciding to stand pat on interest rates, although a stronger dollar kept bullion gains in check.
Spot gold was up 0.3% at $1,924.70 per ounce, as of 0951 GMT, following three sessions of losses. U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $1,945.40.
Oil prices rose on Friday as renewed global supply concerns from Russia's fuel export ban counteracted demand fears driven by macroeconomic headwinds and high interest rates.
Brent futures were up 80 cents, or 0.86%, at $94.10 a barrel by 1154 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) futures rose by 95 cents, or 1.06%, to $90.58 a barrel.Brent had traded 99 cents higher earlier at $94.29 a barrel, while WTI hit a peak of $90.80, up $1.17.